Reaction to Kaepernick proves something is amiss

Last Saturday night, Colin Kaepernick, the San Francisco 49er’s quarterback chose to take a seat, if you will, in protest against the oppression of black and other minority groups in American society. Kaepernick – who is biracial and was adopted and raised by white parents – outlined his position clearly stating “I am not going to stand up to show pride in a flag for a country that oppresses black people and people of colour”.

Kaepernick sat for the anthem drawing mixed responses.

He went on to further state that “there are bodies in the street and people getting paid leave and getting away with murder.” While it is often risky for us, as outsiders, to cast judgment on American society the documented events of the last three years give weight to Kaepernick’s comments.

The problem it seems, based on the response in America is that Kaepernick had the temerity to disrespect the anthem and by some extension, the centuries-old respect for the military enshrined in ‘Old Glory’. Incidentally, the US anthem has often come in for criticism due its racist overtones, and like all anthems was a product of its time.

The Star Spangled Banner is a product of its time.

The national flag can mean many different things to many people. The recent 1916 commemorations here had some commentators examining the symbolism of the flag, and perhaps more importantly, how it is actually viewed by regular citizens. For some, the tricolour is sacred and a powerful national symbol and to others, who are no doubt proud to be Irish, the flag is merely a sporting banner.

Nevertheless, we are a neutral country and are not in a position to familiarise ourselves with the lengthy and complicated military history of the United States of America. The crux of the vitriol aimed at Kaepernick is that he disrespected the men and women who serve in the U.S. armed forces., something he has denied with absolute clarity. There’s no questioning the bravery required to step into a battlefield, but some of the Mom’s apple-pie horseshit that’s been spewed by NFL coaches and players is difficult to fathom.

When questioned on Kaepernick’s actions, Buffalo Bills’ head coach Rex Ryan’s opined that “the opportunity that we have to play a great game is through the men and women that serve our country.” Firstly, that reads as either an incredibly simplistic or sycophantic statement and frankly does not make sense. The NFL does not, to the best of our knowledge, function as a result of American military interventions on foreign soil.

Kaepernick had every right to express an opinion and while many NFL players acknowledged this right they have reacted most negatively to his actions. The overwhelming response has been that Kaepernick disrespected members of the US military when he refused to stand and face the flag. Surely this is somewhat hypocritical? You can say whatever you want but your actions can’t peacefully reflect your views?

On a micro level, Kaepernick’s stance is most interesting as they came in the week when NFL rosters are cut to 52 and, after a year of injuries and reported personality clashes, it does not appear to be smart move from either a career or commercial perspective.

Unlike NBA players, who responded both in word and deeds to Trayvon Martin’s tragic death, NFL pros are expected to keep their views to themselves. It would be unseemly to express any view that may be deemed controversial and therefore detrimental to the juggernaut controlled by a collective of aging white men. Assuredly, there are those who wish to speak in the NFL but players are uncertain as to how this might affect their career prospects.

Kaepernick further stated that “this is not something I am going to run by anybody” and that “if they take football away, my endorsements from me, I know that I stood up for what is right.” A sceptic could say, with considerable substance, that Kaepernick’s football is going to be taken away from him anyway because he can’t even take the starting job in San Francisco from an also-ran like Blaine Gabbert. And not because of his stance on divisive issues in a simmering American society.

Some, like former NFL safety Marvin Harrison, have asked why Kaepernick never spoke when he was on a minimum contract and a relative nobody, but surely this is missing the point. Because of past deeds on the field, the 30-year-old is a household name in the United States and a voice that is more likely to be heard, if not listened to.

Too often, those in an elevated status in society choose to neatly sidestep any potentially divisive issues but Kaepernick has chosen to step outside the protective bubble and stand for something. The point is not really whether Colin Kaepernick was right to do what he did, more the fact that he showed the willingness to do so.

Surely, the public consciousness is skewed if the flag is taken to almost exclusively represent the U.S. armed forces and not the amassed principles and rights which the United States intends to uphold.

Donald Trump had his say, unsurprisingly, suggesting that “maybe he (Kaepernick) should find a country that works better for him”. Hardly a new departure for Trump but his views are typical of the those who disagree with Kaepernick’s actions. Rather than actually look at the wider problems in society, critics have focused on what they perceive to be the Nevada native’s lack of respect for the military.

Donald Trump: Douchebag

In a country where guns are easier to purchase than booze, police officers clearly face a serious threat to their safety. In cities throughout the US, members of the police force are murdered every year. However, the videos we’ve all seen clearly point to an ailing system where police brutality towards minorities clearly exists. Although not according to the president of the San Francisco Police Officers Association.

Apparently, front office executives won’t touch Kaepernick now – though the Minnessota Vikings might have to consider him – so it seems that his personal and football reputation are now held in equally low regard. It should, of course, be mentioned that the 49ers would face unfounded criticisms if they cut Kaepernick, something they were already considering before last week for purely footballing reasons.

Some US army veterans have shown their support for Kaepernick, substantiating the view that his actions were not intended as an affront to the service men and women but as a socio-political statement.

Kaepernick’s actions may come to absolutely naught -though interestingly he was joined in protest last night by his teammate, Eric Reed, a guaranteed starter – but it is refreshing to see an individual in an elevated position in society challenge what they perceive to be social injustice. However, the subsequent reaction confirms the long-held belief that sportspeople should keep their actions to the field, their thoughts to themselves and leave the politicking to the grown-ups.

Golf, Open Championship 2016

2016 Open Championship Preview

Golf has really had to take a back seat thus far this summer. Irish eyes were primarily diverted to France, while the rugby team’s glorious (relative) failure in South Africa gathered momentum as the tour proceeded.

Even after the country was left emotionally winded by Antoine Griezmann’s double in Lyon, we looked to the remaining stages of Euro 2016 for our biennial dose of thrilling international football. Sunday’s final of course delivered an appropriately bland denouement to what was a bog-standard tournament but one still could not avert the eyes.

With soccer on its month-long hiatus and the GAA season only finally hitting its straps, the British Open could not have arrived at a better time for a golf season that seems to have passed us by largely unnoticed. Indeed, the biggest talking point of the season thus far has been a swathe of the world’s top golfers pulling out of the Olympics because of the Zika virus. And, because very few golfers give a shit about competing in the Olympics.

The notion that golf should ever return to the Olympics was largely misguided. With a calendar that is already chocked full of tournaments and the season’s endpoint barely identifiable, the decision to allow golf take its place at the Olympian table was risible and driven largely, perhaps entirely, by commercial incentives.

You see, Tiger was around when the PGA and its collective of power-hitting commercial partners decided to cast golf’s net further and deeper into the global consciousness. And, despite a cast of superbly talented golfers today, nobody caught the casual viewer’s eye quite like the aspirational Navy Seal, Tiger Woods.

Even in Tiger’s absence, golf’s ruling bodies thought their professional tour members would be cock-a-hoop at the idea of winning a medal that hasn’t existed for over 100 years at the back end of a gruelling major season. In many ways, and we don’t say this tritely, the zika virus provided the perfect way out for the game’s top players. Rory McIlroy must allow himself the occasional wry smile when he considers the interminable and downright idiotic furore surrounding his nationality status in the games.

Rory McIlroy being forced to explain why he doesn’t want to play in a pointless tournament that would greatly disrupt his schedule. (Courtesy Irish Times)

McIlroy has again been thrust to the front of the pack over the recent withdrawals, the Down man being the first to display the requisite fortitude and decline his opportunity to appear at what is a meaningless event for golfers. McIlroy very pointedly said in Tuesday’s Guardian that he “didn’t get into golf to try to grow the game.” And, why would he? That’s what the administrators, ad executives and frighteningly expensive PR companies are for. In a Ryder Cup year – a bit of a questionable tournament in itself – why would golfers wreak havoc to their schedule to ingratiate themselves to golf’s commercial arm?

Alas, enough of the rambling diatribe. Instead, let’s cast our eye to Royal Troon and the 2016 Open Championship. Sadly, this year’s tournament will not be accompanied by the unique old-world charm of Peter Alliss. Eighty-five year old, Alliss often brought the self-righteous brigade out in their numbers when he passed admittedly sexist comments, but the man is of a different time and his presence will really be missed this year.

Though perfectly adept at putting his foot in it, Peter Alliss’ wit and boundless knowledge for the game of golf will be sorely missed. (Photo by David Cannon/Getty Images)

In the week when we saw the departure of John “take each game on its merits” Giles from our sitting rooms, it’s sad to see the last remnants of this insightful, sometimes irreverent punditry disappearing from our screens. Sure, Sky Sports will package a visually impressive broadcast but there’s little pleasure to be gained from seeing these eejits offer four days’ worth of tiresome banalities. Or from listening to Colin Montgomerie for any length of time.

Royal Troon last played host to the Open Championship in 2004, when little-known American, Todd Hamilton, usurped the world’s best to win the Claret Jug in the most unlikely of circumstances. Three of that year’s top five are back this week in Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson and the hugely popular, Lee Westwood. Of those three, we’d consider a reinvigorated Westwood but, in any event, we’ll be looking elsewhere.

As usual, we have a run through the favourites –none of whom we’ll be backing – and then on to our value picks in this week’s field. Sadly, next-big-thing, Brooks Koepka has withdrawn from this week’s field so the wait for his guaranteed maiden major victory will have to wait until the end of the month.

The Favourites

Rory McIrloy’s game is coming along nicely but he has yet to set the season alight. The current price of 11/1 is about as good as you’ll get on Hollywood man in major these days, but we’re inclined to hold fire until the US PGA Championship.

History favours the Americans here, so we’ll dispense with Jason Day (9/1), no doubt nursing some ailment, and instead look to the west. Dustin Johnson (9/1) has been knocking relentlessly on the door at major championships since 2010, so he must have been delighted to see the relatively callow Shane Lowry assume the final round lead in last month’s US Open. DJ had been in Lowry’s shoes before and knew the suffocating pressure that accompanied the position. Johnson won with aplomb in Oakmont – even allowing for a slightly confusing penalty – and his subsequent victory at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational means Wayne Gretzky’s reclamation project has clearly found a new level.

Despite World Rankings , Dustin Johnson (l) seen here with Jordan Spieth has been the best golfer in 2016.

Yet, the relatively short 7000 yard Royal Troon course has us leaning instead towards Jordan Spieth (12/1), a man who appeared to be unstoppable 12 months ago. Presuming the Texan has gotten over the most difficult decision in his life – apparently, he’s a “huge believer in Olympic golf” – the 22-year-old has a game ripe for the South Ayrshire track. Spieth’s lack of distance off the tee will be negated by the relatively short course and his scrambling and putting suggest he’ll be in the reckoning come Sunday evening.

It would be foolish, however, to try and brush Spieth’s Amen Corner meltdown from memory, especially as only Dustin Johnson has the proven ability to forget absolutely anything. Spieth’s single-mindedness and poise were widely lauded up until hole 66 of the 2016 Masters. He’s still a very young man but that kind of collapse rarely departs quietly into the night. Still, we’re inclined to think that Spieth’s steeliness will become a hallmark through his career and this weekend offers a perfect opportunity at redemption, particularly as he sails in somewhat under the radar.

Jordan Spieth will be hoping to banish the ghosts of his cruel meltdown at Amen Corner at Augusta in April. (Courtesy CNBC)

Now, to the business end of things, where we combine stats, other peoples’ opinions and the intangible gut feeling to pick a winner for the 2016 Open Championship. And, given that we’ve been absent for a while, we should point out that these selections are all about each-way value.

First, to the honourable mentions:

Sergio Garcia 25/1: This is one we mulled over for quite some time. Garcia has a superb history in the Open. Since 2001, he has a remarkable record of two second place finishes and a further six placings in the top ten. The Spaniard’s form has been very encouraging this year and his iron play has been immaculate all season. Still, for a player who has pissed his pants too many times on the Sunday of a major tournament, these odds are a little prohibitive.

Padraig Harrington 80/1: Definitely our favourite headbanger on tour but at 44 this seems a bridge too far for the three-time major champion.

Marc Leishmann 80/1: Hugely disappointing at the Masters but the big Aussie only fell in a playoff to Zach Johnson last year. Conditions will suit him but current form is a worry, although did tie for 18^th at Oakmont.

On, at last, to our picks for the 2016 Open Championship…..

Andy Sullivan 66/1

Might as well be up front with you on this one from the off – we haven’t heard Andy Sullivan being tipped anywhere. Still, cast a glance over his results and his steady development arc and it’s easy to see the appeal in the Englishman. Tied 23^rd at the US Open, Sullivan has finished 6^th and 5^th in the last fortnight. There’s a glut of young English talent on tour at present – Matthew Fitzpatrick, Chris Wood, Masters champion, Danny Willett – not to mention veterans like Lee Westwood and Justin Rose, so Sullivan arrives in Troon with virtually no fanfare. Willett broke down the walls again for English golfers in April and it wouldn’t surprise us to see Sullivan emulate him on Sunday.

Andy Sullivan is the least heralded, though no less talented, member of the new breed of English golfers. Generated by IJG JPEG Library

Martin Kaymer 50/1

Since his 2014 resurgence, Kaymer has played some solid if unspectacular golf. However, in recent weeks, he’s shown marked improvement and his 5^th in France and 13^th in last week’s Scottish Open suggest his game is coming to the boil at just the right time. Also, being a relentlessly proud and competitive German means that Kaymer was actually happy to qualify for the Olympics this week. All in all, a fantastic price for the 31-year-old double major winner.

Rafa Cabrera-Bello 80/1

Cabrera-Bello is an intriguing prospect and comes to Troon on the back of a hugely impressive and more importantly, consistent season. Third in the WGC World Matchplay Championship, he acquitted himself well in Augusta and Oakmont with finishes of 17^th and 32^nd. While victory may be a bridge too far this week, the less heralded Spaniard in this week’s field represents excellent each-way value.

Zach Johnson 45/1

This price really has us puzzled. Johnson the defending champion and two-time major winner appears to have attracted little or no love from punters. Ice-cold under pressure, the Iowan has ignited a heretofore so-so season with tied eighth and tied tenth at the US Open and Bridgestone Invitational respectively. Last year’s victory came on the back of top ten finishes in the 2013 and 2014 editions of the Open so there’s no question as to his ability to master links course. Add in the fact that Johnson has God on his bag and that price looks increasingly appealing.

Defending champion, Zach Johnson, arrives in Scotland in terrific form and with little or no fanfare. Definitely one to watch.

We’ve gone for a more eclectic selection than usual, largely because these major fields throw up such uncertainty. For those who like to be guided by historical trends, it’s worth noting that an American has won the last six renewals of the Open Championship at Royal Troon.

All eyes will be on the ‘Big Four’ and a hotly tipped, Sergio Garcia, but we’re going to go out on a limb for Andy Sullivan. The last few weeks have proven that England is shit at football and voting. English golf has rarely been in better shape though and Sullivan is our pick to make an unlikely breakthrough at Royal Troon.

SUS Picks

Andy Sullivan e/w @ 66/1
Martin Kaymer e/w @ 501
Rafa Cabrera-Bello e/w @ 80/1
Zach Johnson e/w @ 45/1

For anyone having a punt on each way hopefuls Paddy Power are paying 8 places but at 1/5 of the odds.

Boxing

Gennady Golovkin Looms Large for Saul Alvarez

35-0 with 32 victories by way of knockout. Twenty-two stoppages in a row. Gennady Golovkin’s professional record is almost impossible to compute. Yesterday’s second round destruction of Dominic Wade has merely added further substance to the mystique surrounding the California-based Kazakh .

In a week where the most tedious and highly documented pissing contest in sports history took centre stage, one could be forgiven for failing to notice that boxing’s star attraction was entertaining his adopted Inglewood crowd with another display of otherworldly punching power.

The well-traversed narrative surrounding GGG is that his phenomenal offence has the majority of the middleweight divisions running scared. And, in a sense this is true. There are two things that boxers are very fond of: money and not getting their faces caved in. And, therein lies the conundrum. A fight with GGG could end quickly for the likes of Miguel Cotto, Saul Alvarez – in the hands of the deceptively slimy Oscar de la Hoya – or even Billie Joe Saunders, but there is potential for a huge payday.

The only in-ring mystery surrounding Golovkin – whose brothers made him street fight strangers as a child – is how his defence would hold up against the aforementioned fighters. It may be that the thirty-four-year-olds power, like prime-Tyson, would sap the vitality of his challengers leaving the question surrounding his defence a largely perfunctory issue. In any event, Golovkin is yet to hit the canvas after more than 350 fights between the amateur and professional ranks, so his otherworldly toughness is probably his strongest defensive tool.

Those in the know, including Frank Lotierzo of thesweetscience.com describe Golovkin as merely an “adequate boxer”, in the truly technical sense, but his devastating power allows him to chip away at his opponent’s resistance and then unload relentlessly. Also, his armoury runs deep so an opponent could be caught with a thunderous left hook, overhead right or a night-ending body shot.

The detractors will say that Golovkin is only beating ‘bums’, yet with the exception of Andy Lee, nobody in the top ten is willing to take a shot at the world’s number three pound-for-pound boxer. Fourth-ranked David Lemieux already took his chance in a unification bout and the only surprise that night was that Lemieux lasted into the eighth round.

We’re sorry for bleating like a particularly bolshy broken record, but boxing’s inner-politics shouldn’t just be accepted with a resigned sigh and shrug of the shoulders. There is something intrinsically wrong with this great sport when the combatants are allowed to run and take cover behind the bull shit of Frank Warren or de la Hoya.

This week, Conor McGregor, his level-headed social media following and Dana White have created an embarrassing situation, but for the most part, MMA should be lauded for ensuring that the champion always fights the next guy in line. Unless, ironically, your name is Conor McGregor and the featherweight division is set in limbo, though one suspects White and the UFC may not be so accommodating going forwards. Anyway, we digress, but the point here is Golovkin would long since have fought Alvarez or Cotto if logic was allowed prevail.

Boxing was, of course, ruptured in the 80s when new Associations, Federations and Organisations starting appearing at an inordinate rate, fracturing the sport and creating pockets of vested interests. While belts are important, Golovkin’s uniquely frustrating situation shows that the real power lies with promoters and their desire to protect their golden tickets.

De la Hoya knows that the lion’s share of PPV purchases come from the sizable, loyal Mexican boxing fraternity. Alvarez, originally a big, solid welterweight and the current lineal champion – a concept that seems to have been created by the Mad Hatter – of the middleweight division is Golden Boy Promotions gateway to Mexican fight fans, and with Mayweather most likely gone to pasture, De la Hoya has wasted no time in declaring ‘Canelo’ as boxing’s prime attraction.

Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez (l) seen here in his victory over Migeul Cotto will hopefully face GGG later in 2016.

Alvarez squares off against Amir Khan on May 9^th and logic would suggest the winner, most likely the current WBC champion will advance to face GGG in the super-fight of 2016. Khan, a welterweight is also being forced to jump through hoops –admittedly aided by some very alluring financial incentives- by Golden Boy as he’ll be jumping nine pounds to 156 pounds to make ‘Canelo’s’ job more palatable. Seriously, the ‘heels’ in WWE don’t have things stacked this heavily in their favour.

So, rather unsurprisingly, and in a quirk that will irritate fans and detractors of boxing in equal measure, Alvarez has indicated that any showdown with GGG will take place at a catch weight of 155 pounds. In effect, the champion at 160 is making his most dangerous rival drop five pounds of power. Alvarez defends very effectively at junior middleweight, but Golovkin is a bona fide middleweight and given his supposed technical deficiencies, he would be dispensing with logic in meeting Alvarez’ demands.

Trainer Abel Sanchez and, more so, promoter Tom Loeffler, have worked tirelessly and patiently to generate Golovkin’s fan base on the U.S. west coast so it would seem most unlikely that they would allow their once in a generation star dispense with his ‘superpower’. This being the case, Alvarez or Cotto will need to man up or Saunders or the dangerous Daniel Jacobs will need to step their games up considerably. The chance may have come and gone for Andy Lee, but boxing is nothing if not unpredictable, so who knows.

One thing is for certain, however. For all his notoriety and box office draw, Mayweather was jarringly boring to watch, due to his sublime defense and hand speed. Now retired, his void needs to be filled by a freewheeling wrecking-ball, and not another defensive whizz. Sanchez has instilled the cavalier, come-forward stylings of Mexican greats like Julio Cesar Chavez into his already outrageously, powerful charge, and fight fans have responded accordingly.

Trainer Abel Sanchez has successfully instilled in his man the stylings of the legendary Mexican hall-of-famer, Julio Cesar Chavez.

Golovkin is a young 34, insofar as his fights are usually brief, whirlwind affairs, but a boxer’s speed is probably the first thing to go and it would be shameful if bureaucracy prevents him from giving the fans what they want and what boxing needs. Anyone who watched the abominable Mayweather-Pacquiao fight last May will know the importance of boxers facing off in their prime.

Only 25, perhaps Alvarez – see De la Hoya – is scared of damaging his legacy, but the greats, like Hagler, Hearns, Leonard and Duran never turned a big fight down. Golovkin has taken out every last bit of fodder in the lower reaches of the middleweight division. The time has come for the best to show their true colours.

Augusta Masters 2016, Golf

2016 Augusta Masters Preview

Of the eighty-nine players set to tackle Augusta National this week, there can surely be none more buoyant or ebullient than Jim Herman. After years of toil, anonymity and relative financial struggle, the thirty-eight year old enjoyed a magnificent maiden victory at the Houston Open last weekend. Herman’s reward was not only, however, personal gratification and a hefty pay-cheque, for as winner, he happened upon the final golden ticket. And, while Charlie’s ticket led to a psychedelic chocolate factory, Herman was the lucky recipient of the final spot in the 2016 US Masters at Augusta National.

38 year-old, Jim Herman’s qualification for this year’s Augusta Masters was a genuinely heartwarming moment.

Once all-timers Jack Nicklaus and Gary Player fire off the ceremonial opening shots, Herman, a guy with designs on a solid share of the purse last week, will get to hit the first competitive drive in this year’s tournament. It would be trite to presume what thoughts are going through the genial Cincinnati natives head, but considering his rookie season came in 2011 at the age of 33, we’ll venture that he’s on a different plane to most this week.

This year’s Masters is presenting as a complete conundrum with a solid case to be made for all of the ‘Big Five’ and about a half dozen more. Before we look to our value bets, let’s consider this year’s favourites, casting an eye first over 2015 champion, Jordan Spieth (15/2). For those with foggy memories, Spieth’s performance last year matched the then record-breaking feats of one Eldrick ‘Tiger’ Woods in 1996. Even having allowed himself cruise through the Sunday evening, the Texan came home on 18 under par suggesting an ominous portent, at least for his opposition, of things to come.

Of course, Spieth just about overcame Dustin ‘bet on him at your peril’ Johnson on the trippy Chambers Bay and looked set to take a complete stranglehold on the game. A quiet end to the summer saw more domination in the early season, but recently it seems that Spieth has been wildly wayward, spraying the ball left and right, showing a relative disdain for anything approaching consistency.

Now, to be clear, Spieth can get away with hitting less fairways than pretty much anyone on tour, given his uncanny ability to somehow find the greens from exotic locations. His putting is superb also, as proven last year and in his debut tied-second in 2015. And, yet, there is the nagging suspicion that his game may be slightly awry. True, it sounds crazy to ignore a player who hasn’t finished outside the top two in his only visits to Augusta, but given the slight unknowns, we’ll look elsewhere.

Rory McIlroy (9/1) will have his supporters this week, and his fourth place last year shows a marked improvement around a course which may still spook the Down man. It was interesting to read strength and conditioning guru Mike McGurn’s comments of the benefits of three hours of gym work daily in tandem with The Irish Times, Brian O’ Connor’s insistence that it is golfing acumen that really matters in those championship moments. It’s an interesting juxtaposition, and while fitness gurus may argue that physical fitness keeps you mentally sharp, it doesn’t give you the composure or fortitude to perform under immense pressure. McIlroy will definitely win here sometime, but for us that time is not now.

Rory McIlroy appears to be going down the same route as Tiger Woods when it comes to gym work.

There’s plenty to like about Bubba Watson (11/1), nothing more so that the fact that he, like the San Francisco Giants baseball team, is on an even year symmetry of victory, after his 2012 and 2014 triumphs. A less-delusional, fact based guide may be the fact that the heavy rainfall last week will both benefit the big-hitters, McIlroy and Watson, while also making soft landing pads of Augusta’s traditional treacherous greens. Marsh Benson, the head green keeper has endeavoured all year to return the greens to their most devilish, and heavy rain will have been the last thing he wanted.

An almost bullet-proof argument can be made for Adam Scott (11/1), the man the golfing world thought would implode without his belly-putter. Well, Scott has proved this hypothesis spectacularly wrong, going 1^st, 1^st, 2^nd in an outrageously impressive streak earlier in the year. In fact, if we were betting on any one of the ‘big five’ and we happened to be rational folks, Scott at 11/1 would be the sensible bet.

In any event, we’re not and we can’t look past the extraordinarily locked-in, Jason Day (13/2). He followed victory in The Arnold Palmer Invitaional with an imperious week’s golf at the World Matchplay Championship, his victory coinciding with his rise to the summit of world golf.

Day’s game looked phenomenal at the back end of 2015, and having seemingly overcome his plight of injuries – an area in which he can admittedly be a bit Daniel Sturridge-like at times – the Australian looks to be performing as well as he has ever done. His putting is outstanding and, while not in the Watson or McIlroy realm of driving, his rank of 20^th on the PGA Tour means he’s still well above average in this department. Last year aside, his form around Augusta is outstanding and it wouldn’t surprise to see a Scott-Day shoot-out on Sunday evening.

The reality is that the names we’ve mentioned so far, except Jim Herman – sorry Jim – all have exceptional chances of victory but there’s each-way value out there so let’s look further afield.

First, our honourable mentions:

Rickie Fowler 14/1: Proven performer at majors since 2014 and winner of the Players Championship last year. And yet, a little too short in price for our liking for a guy who still hasn’t won a major.

Phil Mickelson 18/1: Three-time winner and king of this course, finding form at the right time. However, the age profile doesn’t quite fit and again neither does that price. We’d have jumped at 25/1

Sergio Garcia 55/1: Because you just can’t trust Sergio at a major anymore.

And, now, to our 2016 Augusta Masters selections…..

Henrik Stenson 28/1

First up, Stenson may have never lit Augusta up but a best finish of 14^th in 2014 means the course holds no great fears for the Swede. More importantly, after a bit of a dip in performance last year, Stenson brings terrific form to Georgia with a tied 3rd and a 2^nd in his last two tournaments.

There are plenty of compelling reasons to like Stenson’s chances. A little glimpse at his season stats have him ranked as 5^th in the strokes gained department and he makes a ton of birdies.

He’s experienced, has a good mentality and importantly comes to Augusta National with form. Another player to, hopefully, take leave of the ‘greatest to have never won a major’ list?

Mark Leishman 70/1

If you cast your eye over the recent winners of the Masters, you’ll note that the winner is extremely proficient in at least two of the following categories: driving, fairways hit, greens-in-regulation, scrambling, putting. Leishman definitely ticks the box for driving and scrambling, and the beauty of being a big-hitter is that even if you’re as accurate as Bosko Balaban, you’re still going to be closer to the green than the majority of the field.

For a guy that doesn’t win all that regularly, Leishman has excellent major form, 4^th in the 2014 Masters and more recently a playoff defeat away from victory at last year’s windswept British Open.

Big price and a bit of a risk, but in this world of unknowns a really solid, each-way candidate.

Charl Schwartzel 35/1

Schwartzel’s countrymen, Branden Grace and Louis Oosthuizen won us a few quid last year, so we’re going to stick with the South African theme for our third pick. A winner here in 2011, Schwartzel has found serious form this season, with two victories on the European Tour and more recently success in March at the Valspar Championship.

We have a feeling 2011 champion, Charl Schwartzel is going to be right in the mix come Sunday evening. (Courtesy of Getty Images)

Look at this pragmatically. Schwartzel is by a country mile the longest odds available on any winner of the Masters this decade. The next is Mickelson at 18/1. And, other than Scott, Schwartzel is the only other member of that quintet to have won a tournament in March.

35/1 almost sounds crazy now!

Brooks Koepka 55/1

As George Bernard Shaw once said, “A life spent making mistakes is not only more honorable, but more useful than a life spent doing nothing.”

Brooks Koepka ran Jason Day quite close at the WGC Matchplay two weeks ago. It’s going to happen. Soon!

Some day this bet won’t look so ludicrous.

The vagaries in picking this year’s winner at Augusta National mean the sensible amongst you will probably keep your money in your pocket. (For everybody else, see G.B. Shaw quote above) But, for what it’s worth, we’re picturing Day, Scott and Schwartzel locked in a titanic battle down the stretch on Sunday.

Enjoy it and take it all in, particularly the serenity. And the azaleas! There’s no other tournament quite like it.

SUS Picks – 2016 US Masters, Augusta National

Henrik Stenson e/w @28/1
Marc Leishman e/w @70/1
Charl Schwartzel e/w @35/1
Brooks Koepka e/w @55/1
South African Winner 12/1

Shop around for your bets. Paddy Power are paying 7 places, but beware as it’s only on 1/5 of the odds.

Augusta Masters 2016, Golf

Day Emerges As One To Beat

With the 2016 Masters at Augusta National on the horizon, it would be hard to suggest that golf has ever been more thrillingly competitive. Fittingly, the big three of new world number-one, Jason Day, Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy are in a dead heat at the top of the betting market. However, there is upwards of half a dozen more who will really fancy their chances in South Georgia next week.

McIlroy showed glimpses of a return to form over the weekend and given Spieth’s recent wayward struggles, it may be that his great rivals feel they have a slight edge over the Texan. Last year, Spieth hit incredible form approaching the season’s first major and by the time he came through in the bizarre, Terry Gilliam-like setting of Chambers’ Bay, it appeared that he could sweep the season’s majors.

However, a slow-burning, Jason Day hit his stride in July and by the year’s end, he appeared virtually unbeatable. McIlroy’s year was oddly disjointed by the unfortunate five-a-side injury suffered prior to the British Open but, the last couple of months suggest that he’s nearing his form of old.

McIlroy’s chances though, rest firmly on his ability to right his relative putting woes which have seen some wonderful iron play go unrewarded. Alas, this is not some something new for the Down man and it must have been a great source of frustration to out play Day down the fairways and then see the blade let him down. McIlroy is far from a poor putter but the rest of his skill set is undeniably superior and the reality is that the majority of Major winners rank in the top-five putters in that given week.

If Spieth has been wayward and McIlroy vulnerable around the greens, Jason Day has been simply imperious in his last two outings. It is worth mentioning that for all the praise of Day, he still only beat McIlroy by one hole in the WGC World Matchplay Championship, but one always felt that Day enjoyed the lion’s share of control of their contest.
Spieth obviously took the field apart last year at Augusta National but it is worth remembering that his form was red-hot in the weeks preceding the tournament. It would seem therefore that Day is ploughing this particular furrow and the Australian clearly has a fondness for the course, already with three top five finishes to his name.

We’ll be having a more in-depth look at the outsiders in the tournament next week -as there is some fantastic value to be had down the field – but the obvious challengers at this point outside of the ‘Big Three’ are former champions, Bubba Watson and Adam Scott, and the newly crowned ‘best player yet to win a major’, Rickie Fowler.

Of those three, we’d be inclined to favour Watson – seeking his third Masters title – whose form mirrors that of 2014 when he also won early in the season. The presumption at this point, of course, is that all these players are going to hit their straps at the same time, which by and large, rarely happens.

Two-time winner, Bubba Watson, may emerge as the major threat to Jason Day.

Day has unquestioned form, while Soctt and Watson have also entered the winners’ circle recently. McIlroy, meanwhile, has shown plenty of glimpses of the right stuff, while Fowler may have had this one in his sights for quite some time.
The irony, thus, is that defending champion Spieth – in the week that he has been dethroned from world number-one – is being viewed, insofar as the defending champion can be, as something of an unknown quantity.

It’s virtually impossible to fathom a back-nine on Sunday evening where Spieth is not relevant, but his form has been patchy at best. Meanwhile, McIlroy is not at this point in his career fully comfortable with Augusta National.

The rapidly improving, Brooks Koepka, may emerge as a very real threat to the favourites at Augusta National.

With that in mind, we’re inclined at this point in time to side with the red-hot form player in Jason Day, though our old favourite, Brooks Koepka, who lived with him for long periods at the weekend, amy be one to watch.

Full preview to follow next week.

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Cheltenham Festival 2016, Horse Racing

Sprinter Sacre Joins the All-Time Greats

History was made yesterday as Sprinter Scare reclaimed the Queen Mother Champion Chase three years after first wowing crowds in 2013. The seven year old star was a virtuoso combination of poise, speed and showmanship and the public simply adored him. Fast forward three years to a tougher version of Sprinter Sacre, one who has almost had to start from scratch, yet one who could still overcome one of Willie Mullins A-Team, in Un de Sceaux.

Cheltenham horses, particularly the speedsters, simply do not come back but, the ‘Sprinter defied all conventional logic with a composed race that for a mile and a half appeared to be run completely within Un de Sceaux’ comfort zone. However, as the two kicked around the home turn, Sprinter Sacre stormed clear, and even some fairly shoddy late jumping was not going to prevent a victory that was as impressive as it was emotional. Indeed, Nico de Boinville – who is having an amazing 12 months – was afforded the luxury of easing home with three and a half lengths to spare.

Willie Mullins should comfortably amass the most winners at this year’s Festival, but the single most outstanding training effort belongs to Nicky Henderson and his incredible rejuvenation of a true all-time great, Sprinter Sacre.

Thursday 17^th March – Feature Race: World Hurdle

There’s point in dancing around the fact that the third day of Cheltenham is, by any comparisons, the weakest day’s racing. Nonetheless, the feature World Hurdle – three miles over the smaller obstacles – could today showcase a real star of the future in Thistlecrack. Even the name alone is fantastically onomatopoeic. Trainer, Colin Tizzard, a former dairy farmer from Dorset, saddles today’s banker as well as Cue Card in tomorrow’s Gold Cup, the latter pursuing a £1 million bonus.

Colin Tizzard’s superstar in the making, Thistlecrack could dazzle the Cheltenham crowd today.

The World Hurdle is known to throw up some superstars, like Big Bucks or ‘The Monster’, Inglis Drever, horses who dominate the race for years and endear themselves to the racing public. Thistlecrack possesses all this potential and more, with Tizzard believing he has the potential to compete in Gold Cups of the future.

Today however, the rapidly improving stayer must repel last year’s winner, Cole Harden and Irish hope, Alpha des Obeaux. The latter fell when probably beaten, at the second last at Aintree last April but there is no questioning his improvement in the meantime. However, Thistlecrack has also improved and for many punters, British ones in particular, this fella’ is this week’s get out of jail free card.

At 6/5 there’s little value here – although many journalists have observed that these are actually probably generous – so we suggest a small bet on one-two forecast of Thistlecrack and Alpha des Obeaux at 17/2. Colin Tizzard has two huge days ahead of him. Thistlecrack should set the ball rolling for him in impressive style.

If, like us, you’ve taken a good old fashioned pummelling with the bookies over the last few days, then perhaps confidence is low. Nonetheless, we have a few tentative selections for you and all at decent each-way prices.

We’re going to sidestep the opener, where decent arguments can be made for a half dozen of the entries, and move instead to The Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle. J.P. McManus’ Leave at Dawn heads the market but our preference is for Cup Final, trained by the king of Cheltenham – at least for another few years – Nicky Henderson. He looks likely to have the three-mile trip and was fairly handy in his most recent victory in Musselburgh. A lot of bookies are paying five places on this race, so there’s definitely some value in Cup Final at 10/1.

Rich Ricci has come in for plenty of flak from punters in recent days for the very late deferral of Vautour to the Ryanair Chase. Ricci effectively said Gold Cup or nothing for last year’s incredible, JLT Novices’ Chase victor but, a u-turn in midweek means Vautour steps back in trip. No matter how hard Michael O’ Leary tries, this race has failed to capture the heart of punters and this week’s renewal will do nothing to quiet the doubters.

Vautour’s late defection has caused consternation among punters. Ruby Walsh will be hoping to guide the sublime performer to a third Cheltenham victory.

Apparently, Vautour has only being firing on 90% at home in recent weeks so, rather than risk him in the Gold Cup – where he may not make the trip anyway – connections have dropped him back to the handier option in the Ryanair. Vautour should have the measure of his rivals but he’s too short a price and there may be each-way value here. We’ve a huge soft spot for Road to Riches – third in last year’s Gold Cup – and frankly with the better ground, we’re perplexed that he’s most likely going to be diverted from the main event. If Djakadam who was second last year has the Gold Cup form, then surely Road to Riches should enter that equation. In any event, he won’t be our preference if he lines up this afternoon as the feeling is that this trip doesn’t suit him.

We’ll have a small each-way look at Josses Hill, placed in the last two year’s at the festival. Not near the class of Vautour, and sometimes a bit of a head-the-ball with his jumping, we’ll take him each-way at 18/1.

All the talk in the Dawn Run Novices Hurdle has been for Limini and given the astounding quality of Willie Mullins’ mares and her performances to date, it’s hard to argue with the market. Still, like the disillusioned eejits that we are, we’ll plump for the impressive English filly, Bloody Mary, available at a very tempting 12/1.

And, finally, in the day’s finale, the Kim Muir, we’ll just about take David Pipe’s Doctor Harper over Gordon Elliott’s Cause of Causes.

It may be a flat enough day in comparison to the rest of the Festival but in Thistlecrack, we may be seeing a star in the making.

Beannachtaí na Féile Padraig!

S.U.S. Tips – Thursday 17^th March, 2016

14:10 – Pertemps Final – Cup Final e/w @ 10/1

14:50 – Ryanair Chase – Josses Hill e/w @ 18/1

15:30 – World Hurdle – Thistlecrack @ 11/8

16:50 – Dawn Run Novices Hurdle – Bloody Mary e/w @ 12/1

17:30 – Kim Muir – Doctor Harper e/w @ 11/2

Cheltenham Festival 2016, Horse Racing

Cheltenham has a New A.P. to Hail

Annie Power banished the ghosts of last year with a brilliant, gutsy performance in yesterday’s showpiece, Champion Hurdle. The classy mare, so unfortunate last year, destroyed all comers to completely justify her connections decision to introduce her as a late substitute for the absent, Faugheen.

We’re no experts but it would seem that the seven pounds allowance over her male rivals may have proven irrelevant in the end as Annie Power absolutely whipped her opposition. Ruby Walsh dared the field to catch his mount after a gutsy charge from the front, but it was only after soaring over last year’s nemesis that he could be sure of victory.

With a few strokes of luck –last year’s infamous denouement and a narrow defeat to More of That in the 2014 World Hurdle – this could have been a third consecutive victory at the Festival for Annie Power. As it was, owner Rich Ricci was left in tears while Walsh, not famed for his cheery disposition, looked outwardly elated at the mare’s victory.

Annie Power, the Cheltenham nomad, will probably be elsewhere next year – perhaps attempting to emulate Dawn Run – but the feeling is after this that she is simply too good not to race against the boys every year.

Walsh enjoyed a three-timer with Douvan’s predicted facile victory in the Arkle Chase merely enhancing an already stellar reputation. Vroum Vroum Mag, herself a substitute in the Mares Hurdle, was also comfortable in securing a remarkable eighth consecutive mare’s title at the festival for Mullins. Min may have been overturned in the day’s opener but for the canny punters who chose Un de Sceaux tomorrow over the untested novice, a fairly hefty accumulator is still on.

Cheltenham’s all-time leading trainer Nicky Henderson struck gold early with Altior, but it was all about the Mullins and Walsh show after that. Willie Mullins has some real headaches going into next year’s festival but, good headaches mind you, like the ones Leonardo di Caprio endures in Miami night clubs.

Having, as usual, ignored our own advice to avoid the handicaps, we had, what one could only describe as a shocking day’s gambling but, the beauty of Cheltenham is that there is always tomorrow!

So, to Day 2, which will be highlighted by the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

Wednesday 16^th March – Feature Race: Queen Mother Champion Chase

Right, time to salvage some dignity. And money! First up is the Neptune Investments Novice Hurdle and on paper, this appears to be a two-way duel between Yorkhill, another from the dream-team combo of Mullins and Walsh, and Alan King’s Yanworth. The latter has long been touted as one to watch at the Festival and our bias lies here as we’ve tied Yanworth in with Douvan and Thistlecrack to hopefully make our week.

Short priced novices from Closutton, like Yorkhill (2/1), generally perform well at Cheltenham, but Yanworth was extraordinarily impressive in January and should open Alan King’s Festival account.

Next up is our Festival Nap, More of That in the RSA Chase. Now, admittedly, we got him at 5/1 a while back but we’re still keen on him at 13/8. Winner of the World Hurdle in 2014, after a thrilling battle with Annie Power, the JP McManus-owned eight-year-old has taken wonderfully to the larger obstacles and is unbeaten at Prestbury Park. His main threat is No More Heroes, a Grade One winner himself who will be looking to open the account for Gigginstown Stud and Bryan Copper. If More of That is the horse his performances suggest, then he should have too much here.

More of That and Barry Geraghty, seen here after winning the 2014, will be hoping to deliver today in the RSA Chase.

2016 Queen Mother Champion Chase

The Champion Chase brings together the best chasing sprinters in racing and tomorrow’s renewal represents an interesting contest between a rising star and one of the most beloved horses to ever grace the winners’ enclosure at Cheltenham

2015’s Arkle winner, Un de Sceaux, has been imperious when he’s remained upright, with a fall at Christmas being the only blip on his radar in 2015. He’s a justifiable odds-on favourite and clearly the one to beat but, tomorrow he comes up against the rejuvenated darling of Prestbury Park, Sprinter Sacre.

Nicky Henderson’s charge gave one of the most complete two-mile performances ever in winning the Champion Chase in 2013, and it appeared that he would dominate the division like no other before him. But, horse-racing is fraught with peril and when Sprinter Sacre was found to have a serious heart condition in 2014 it appeared the end was nigh. Last year’s failure to finish here wasn’t exactly a beacon of optimism but, lo and behold, the ‘Sprinter looks something like his old self, and while rekindling the brilliance of 2013 is simply impossible, he should go close.

Sprinter Sacre will see plenty of bets just before the off, not necessarily because punters believe he will win, but because they love him and want him to provide one final spine-tingling Cheltenham moment.

Can Sprinter Sacre can repeat his heroics of 2013 in today’s Champion Chase?

Last year’s winner, Dodging Bullets, has received no love at all this year and is available at 14/1 but it’s hard to get excited about him on this year’s form. Then there is the 2014 winner, Sire de Grugy, who though honest as Donald Trump is ignorant, couldn’t get close to Un de Sceaux at Ascot in January.

The market without Un de Sceaux presents some interesting propositions and we’ve had a very small bet on Sizing Granite at 16/1 and he has plenty of scope to improve after his move to Colm Murphy’s yard.

Still, barring a fall or a Phoenix-like resurgence from Sprinter Sacre, it is almost impossible to look past Un de Sceaux and the relentless march of Team Mullins.

Un de Sceaux and Ruby Walsh are formidable favourites for the Champion Chase.

Finally, to the one of the most enjoyable gambling/lucky-dip experiences of the week, the Champion Bumper. Moon Racer made a thrilling (and enriching) burst from nowhere last year to take the Bumper inside the last half furlong to send many a punter home happy.

Augusta Kate appears to be the leading light for Willie Mullins, while Aidan Coleman’s mount, High Bridge is one we really expect to be in the mix. However, our vote goes to New To This Town who had second-favourite Davenir d’Une Vie behind him in his recent Gowran victory. Jessica Harrington doesn’t usually get involved in the Bumper unless she means business – Jezki one of two that’s travelled in the last 13 years – so she must really like New To This Town’s chances. Having Barry Geraghty on board is always a good thing too. A more obscure one to watch is Very Much So, who returns to the track after almost two years out.

We’ll be back on Thursday when guilt-free lunchtime pints will be the order of the day!

Happy hunting!

S.U.S. Picks – 16^th March 2016

13:30 – Neptune Investments Novice Hurdle

Yanworth @ 6/4

14: 10 – RSA Chase

More of That @ 7/4

15:30 – Queen Mother Champion Chase

Sizing Granite (without Un de Sceaux) 10/1

17:30 – Champion Bumper

New to This Town @ 11/1

Cheltenham Festival 2016, Horse Racing

Cheltenham 2016 – Day One Preview

Faugheen’s absence creates a vacuum and there’s a Thief we like the look of….

The sun is out, for the first time in three months people actually look happy and Ireland offloaded the ball. Which means it must be March and time for the showpiece of national hunt racing, the Cheltenham Festival. 2015 was all about A.P. McCoy’s long goodbye, the relentless dominance of the Willie Mullins/Ruby Walsh tandem, an unheralded novice and the most infamous fall in recent Cheltenham history.

Sadly, this year’s festival has already been blighted by injury, meaning punters will be denied sight of defending champions ‘The Machine’, Faugheen in the Champion Hurdle and last year’s Gold Cup winner, the surprise package, Coneygree.

At just eight years old, Faugheen is probably just one more Festival victory away from legendary status, but after a minor suspensory injury, Rich Ricci’s superstar will have to keep his powder dry until 2017. Meanwhile, Coneygree – who led all from the off last year – had his season curtailed after a serious enough injury to his hock in December. One still feels that Coneygree was never given the credit he deserved, perhaps because he doesn’t reside at Closutton or Ditcheat but, petty personal grievances aside, he should hopefully bounce back next year to contest the main event once more.

The great question surrounding Cheltenham of late is just how much dominance Willie Mullins will enjoy this year. His one-two from last year’s Champion Hurdle – Faugheen and Arctic Fire – are absent meaning a reshuffle of the champion trainer’s pack. Annie Power moves into Champion Hurdle favouritism while, after much bouncing around, Vroum Vroum Mag will be entrusted to continue the Mullins’ stranglehold in the Mares Hurdle.

We’ll be back every day to give you a preview and our picks of the day, and even at this late stage, we’ll do our best to identify some value. Oh, and just so you know, we won’t be tipping Victoria Pendleton on Pacha du Polder.

Tuesday 15^th March 2016 – Feature Race: Champion Hurdle

For many of those who travel in their droves to the Cotswold each spring, the highlight of the week comes with the starter’s simple act of raising the white flag to commence the festival opening, Supreme Novices Hurdle. A gleeful roar, full of boundless optimism rises into the Gloucestershire air as the best novice hurdlers set the week’s actions in motion.

As has been the case in recent years, Willie Mullins saddles the favourite for the Supreme Novices Hurdle in Min. The Ricci-owned horse has dominated in his two starts this year and his chances appear to have been enhanced by recent form lines. Mullins seems very keen on Min but Ruby Walsh less so and there are those out there who feel his previous victories may have been significantly aided by the heavy Irish winter ground.

Min could go off at as high as 2/1 but he will be expected to set the tone for the inevitable Mullins day-one accumulator featuring future superstar, Douvan, Vroum Vroum Mag and Annie Power.

Despite the perceived lack of acclaim for Min, he coasted in his last two victories and his opposition that day has gone on to record impressive victories of their own.

The home charge will be led by Nicky Henderson’s pair of Altior and Buveur d’Air with Supasundae fancied by many as an each way chance.

Tombstone was a favourite of many punters over the winter but there has been little love of late for Gordon Elliott’s horse, after a poor showing on Irish Gold Cup day, where he was well beaten by Bleu et Rouge. However, fitted with a hood in the hope of getting his mood right, we can’t ignore a small each-way bet with the 14/1 on offer.

Still, with this much uncertainty, you may be best off following to the trend of recent years and abiding by the Mullins-Walsh tandem, though Altior will push Min very close.

Douvan (2/5) is untouchable –and unbackable – in the Arkle and, barring a fall, will romp home by as much as he and Ruby Walsh wish.

2016 Champion Hurdle

All eyes will be on Annie and Ruby in tomorrow’s Champion Hurdle.

Up until Willie Mullins’ unfortunate announcement in February, the 2016 Champion Hurdle debate circled around how much air there would be between Faugheen and the field. ‘The Machine’ is gone for now, however, so a reshuffle has seen Annie Power supplemented into Tuesday’s big race and straight to the top of the market. Arctic Fire’s subsequent withdrawal means the race is without last year’s first two home.

Of course, anyone with even a fleeting interest in Cheltenham will know that Annie Power came down at the last when leading last year, saving the bookies an estimated £40 million. That Glen’s Melody went on to complete a day one four-timer anyway for Willie Mullins was lost in the chaos for many.

Still winless at this great meeting – a valiant second to More of That in the 2014 World Hurdle notwithstanding – AP (the horse) represents a valid favourite and will be aided here by her seven-pound claim over her male counterparts.

Ruby Walsh also had the option of piloting the doughty Nichols Canyon who can claim to be the only hurdler to ever take down Faugheen. That Faugheen spectacularly overturned this result is largely defunct at this point with the former’s tussle with Identity Thief a good indication of the small margins that separate this field.

Nichols Canyon dogged it out that day in a mudbath, but we’re inclined to think that the quick-drying ground will suit Identity Thief. The six-year-old landed a hugely impressive victory in Newcastle in November and he will have come on for his recent battle with Nichols Canyon. The ground is forecast as soft, soft to good in places so the omens look good for Identity Thief

Of the British hopes, The New One, fancied by many two years ago, holds the most promise for us and he’ll attract plenty of attention on the day. However, we’ve been keen on Identity Thief for a while now, and in a wide open race, he gets the nod.

In the Mares Hurdle, we’re remaining loyal to last year’s pick, Polly Peachum. After profiting on the bad luck of Annie Power in 2015, the Nicky Henderson-trained mare was desperately unlucky herself to be pipped on the line by Glen’s Melody. The challenge doesn’t get much easier this year with the introduction of Vroum Vroum Mag. Nonetheless, Polly Peachum will be smarting from last year, and while the favourite brings tremendous form to the Festival she has yet to prove her worth up the menacing hill.

Polly Peachum (r) was narrowly pipped in the 2015 Mares Hurdle by Glen’s Melody (l).

We’re cheating a little in the National Hunt Chase by offering two tips. Our first comes in the shape of Gordon Elliott’s, Noble Endeavour. It was always the Co. Meath trainer’s hope that this promising seven-year-old would compete in this four-miler and with Jamie Codd on board, he has a huge chance. At 6/1, Noble Endeavor is hardly great value – the value in the handicaps is gone at this point, with punter confusion exacerbated by a lot of late declarations – but Elliott is pretty sweet on him and he was only narrowly beaten by the absent Killultagh Vic at last year’s festival.

Beware, however, of the hammering that Irish horses take from the British handicapper and, at 16/1, home hope, Local Show is a very appealing each-way shot.

Remember, follow the courage of your convictions but do not bet just for the sake of it. Unless you like the horse’s name. Or his colours.

We’ll be back tomorrow when we try to crack the Champion Bumper, and consider whether there might be some value in opposing Un de Sceaux in the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

Best of luck!

S.U.S. Picks 15^th March 2016

(1) 13:30 Supreme Novices Hurdle

Tombstone e/w @ 14/1

(2) 15:30 Champion Hurdle

Identity Thief @ 6/1

(3) 16:10 Mares Hurdle

Polly Peachum e/w @ 6/1

(4) 16:50 Cross Country Chase

(i) Noble Endeavor e/w @ 6/1

(ii) Local Show e/w @ 16/1

Rugby Union, Six Nations, Six Nations 2016

Six Nations 2016 – Round 2 Preview

The idea of a good draw has never really crept into the thinking of rugby players or coaches. It’s not like soccer where a side can set up away from home to win a valuable point on the road.

Obviously, the sheer volume of scoring makes it impossible to plan for the draw and, barring a last minute equalising score, you’re never going to be overjoyed with one. And, indeed, such is the impatience of the U.S. sporting audience that they simply did away with draws.

Last Sunday, for the third time in five seasons, Ireland drew a game in the Six Nations. And, while Rory Best’s side will rue letting a 13-0 lead slip away, they can be content in the fact that they performed beyond many expectations while also salvaging a game which appeared to be slipping away from them.

The ferocious intensity of the first half was bound to diminish and the Welsh, as one would expect, improved as the game went on. The Irish coaching staff and players could never be seen to revel in a draw but there were considerable positives to be gleaned from the game.

The fear from such an attritional game is whether Ireland will be able to replenish their stocks adequately with a mere six-day turnaround but the fact they have no choice makes their decision easier.

France next and the home side, while certainly not waiting in the long grass, will be keen to build on their ability to tough out a largely undeserved victory over a beleaguered Italian side.

CJ Stander excelled on debut, so too Tommy O’ Donnell on his injury-shortened return, while Jamie Heaslip complemented what was a terrific back row effort.

Jack McGrath’s extraordinary effort meant Cian Healy’s loss was not felt all that keenly and while the latter is still probably first choice when fit, the gap has narrowed.

The general back line play was vastly improved and this came about in large part due to the renewed efforts of Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton. Murray’s growing sense of responsibility is a massive bonus while Sexton’s vigour in attack will be crucial in ensuring Ireland’s offence continues to flourish.

Both wingers were superb, particularly in defence, but Keith Earls head trauma will keep him out from the French encounter.

Meanwhile, there is the Simon Zebo enigma. Careless in his basic duties and lacking conviction in the air, the Corkman brought a deep strike threat to the line that has been missing for so long from the Irish game. Zebo too is ruled out tomorrow – though misleading information during the week suggested that both he and Earls were fit – but one wonders if he would have been considered in any event.

Liam Toland makes a very pertinent point in today’s Irish Times about the impatient attitude shown by the crowd in the Aviva Stadium last Sunday afternoon. Irish rugby fans have kicked and screamed for a more expansive, attacking threat and last week Zebo provided glimpses of this. We’ve already touched on his weaknesses but his offensive ability is innate and must be encouraged.

Schmidt has already shown that he can prepare a team that is extremely reliable and steady. People complained about his selection and approach. So, Schmidt tried out Zebo who, rather unsurprisingly, mixed the good and the bad. So, for those difficult to please supporters, the Irish side reverts to type tomorrow, mostly as a bye product of injury.

France -v- Ireland, 13th February 2016, Stade de France, 2:25 p.m.

TV schedulers continue to push the boat out with this year’s effort to compile the most difficult to remember kick-off times ever.

It’s quite difficult to read into Guy Noves first match as French coach last weekend. While France showed considerable resolve in overturning an eight point second-half deficit, you have to remember that they shouldn’t have gotten into such a whole at home to Italy.

Very few gave Italy so much as a sniff of victory but the Azzurri were extremely combative and their back line showed more structure and intent than recent years. Still, France clawed their way back in, admittedly with a dime from JP Doyle and Sergio Parisse’s ill-fated decision to attempt a drop-goal at the death.

So, where does that leave France? Conventional wisdom suggests that the French are better off for toughing it out but with a seven-day turnaround but with a new coach and the ‘what have you done for me lately’ Parisian crowd, surely a resounding victory would have been preferable. Particularly when French sides have traditionally fed off their bristling self-confidence.

In any event, Noves has decided to reshuffle a deck that ha already been shuffled last week. A sign that he doesn’t like the cards at his disposal or simply a desire to see what options he has? The latter would not be a bad idea given the short rest period but very little can be said with certainty about this French side.

Noves had no say, however, on the absence of Louis Licamoles and centre, Gael Fickou. Picamoles, one of the finest forwards in world rugby is gone for the tournament and, while his replacement Yacouba Camara is highly rated, its akin to trying to replace the Limerick man who-shall-not-be-named.

Curiously, Rabah Slimani, lauded so much by journalist and pundits drops to the bench to be replaced by the gigantic, Uini Atonio. If Slimani is the superior and fitter player, then surely he should start with the 145kg Atonio introduced late on to cause devastation in set-piece and open play alike. Bringing the big men on to raise hell in the past quarter has always been the tried and tested method.

Those in the know say Rabah Slimani is a world-class, prop. So, France have dropped him.

Nonetheless, Ireland and particularly Nathan White suffered at scrum-time last weekend and if the French get on top in this department, and Jaco Peyper gets swayed by the baying Parisian crowd, Ireland could be in for a torrid time.

As we’ve already mentioned, Joe Schmidt’s hand has been forced by injuries in the back three. Reports suggested that both Earls and Zebo were cleared to play but is is apparent now that neither man is available for selection. The situation is particularly unclear with Earls as our understanding is that once a player passes the return to play protocols, he can return to play. It would be heartening to think that further medical advice was sought in this regard, thus leading to Earls omission.

Both Kearney brothers return, bringing stability and steadfast application if not attacking threat but the big boost comes up front. Sean O’ Brien – perhaps Ireland’s new totem – returns from injury to form a formidable back row with Jamie Heaslip and last week’s hugely impressive debutant, CJ Stander.

Tommy O’ Donnell did little wrong last week prior to leaving the field and absolutely merits his place in the 23 but, O’ Brien when fit, is a certain starter. Gerry Thornley rightly pointed out during the week that Stander and O’Brien’s sharing of the tight carries should open some space for Heaslip to carry as he once did. Obviously, back rows are all about balance so we shouldn’t presume but, in theory, this unit should be formidable.

Sean O’ Brien’s return is guaranteed to strengthen the Irish pack.

Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton may be forced to revert to the style of Six Nations past but, it would be tremendous to see the attacking endeavour of last weekend once more. The forecast is not great for Paris but both Irish half backs handled wonderfully in postcard Irish weather in Dublin. Personnel and coaching directions, rather than weather, may force their hand.

Robbie Henshaw and Jared Payne appeared to entrenched in Ireland’s midfield and they’ve done absolutely nothing wrong but still one wonders if the Connacht man’s attacking threat is being nullified somewhat. Not to mentions Payne’s.

Pragmatism does however have to enter the conversation and given Ireland’s next destination – Twickenham with the chariot getting into gear – a victory is vital tomorrow.

Noves’ France did not nothing to startle last weekend, though Virimi Vikitawa lit the game up at times, and their turnover count, 19, was massive. If Ireland exploit this French weakness and find a much improved effort in the scrum – a big ask, admittedly – then there is no reason to fear this French side.

Ireland have not lost in Paris for six years, unthinkable only a decade ago, and the seven point handicap- of-fear is long since gone. While this is not the turgid Philippe Saint Andre edition of France, Les Bleus still have a considerable transition period ahead.

Tomorrow, Ireland’s known knowns should overcome the unknown unknowns of this French side.

Ireland by 3

In Brief…….

Wales -v- Scotland, 13th February 2016, Millennium Stadium, 16:50

Both sides will have spent last weekend mulling over what could have been, but Wales are clearly the better side. They finished strongly in Dublin and had to contend with the loss of Dan Biggar from very early in the game.

Biggar starts, which is either the result of incredible healing powers, an over exaggeration of the injury in the first instance or a terribly poor judgment call.

Dan Biggar: Ankles of adamantium

Meanwhile, the Scots travel south in search of a first victory in Cardiff since 2002. Vern Cotter was frustrated with his sides lack of composure in attack last week and Scotland know that defeat tomorrow sends them into a place they’ve endeavoured to escape for so long: the battle for the wooden spoon.

The roof is set to be closed in this incredible stadium and both sides will come to play. The Scots know this is all or nothing, even at this early stage while the home side dare not disappoint a bullish, expectant Cardiff crowd.

Expect plenty of attacking rugby but the difference may be in red zone efficiency. Scotland promise far more than they deliver. This is rarely the case for Wales in Cardiff.

Wales by 10

Italy -v- England, 14th February 2016, Stadio Olimpico, 2:00 pm

Eddie Jones had to be impressed with his side’s efficient, just get-the-job-done victory in Murrayfield last weekend. Their defence was rock solid, while the build up to Jack Nowell’s try showed glimpses of attacking intent, which to be fair, was also present under Stuart Lancaster.

Italy, so cruelly denied in Paris last week, are at a crossroads. Either they have dropped their heads and questioned the relentless cruelty of sport, or they’ve decided that England under new leadership are there for the glorious taking.

Recent performances suggest Italy really are improving and England may not have it all their own way on Sunday. Nonetheless, England are the better side and Eddie Jones will have his charges prepared for a breakneck, passionate Italian performance.

English rugby fans are getting very excited about Saracens 21-year-old second row, Maro Itoje.

Watch out for England debutant Maro Itoje off the bench. The Saracens second-row is being mentioned already as one of those once-in-a-generation players, which while ludicrous is also intriguing.

England by 12

SUS Picks – Ireland to beat France – Evens

Scotland +10 draw with Wales 22/1

Italy +15 over England 10/11

Rugby Union, Six Nations

Six Nations 2016: Ireland v Wales Preview

So, the gloom has lifted. Or, at least, dissipated a little. That crushing defeat in Cardiff really took the sails out of a nation that had gotten a little too high on self-belief and perceived squad-depth.

In any event, the World Cup should be left to one side for now and our attention turn back to the Six Nations, a fantastic standalone tournament in its own right. Any rationalist could have told you before the World Cup that he quality of rugby in the south is superior. The World Cup simply confirmed this so, time to move on, hopefully with lessons learned.

Irish rugby has been less than ebullient since October, with Paul O’ Connell departed for Toulon, key players out injured and disastrous European campaigns for Leinster and Munster. Still, while we can bemoan the financial death grip that the English and French have taken on the club game, the Six Nations offers a far more even playing field. Yesterday’s game in Paris is testament to to this.

Ireland go into today’s opener with designs on a first ever tournament hat-trick but it will take at least two huge performances to lift them past a settled, superior Welsh side and an England team buoyed by both the Eddie Jones-effect and a favourable schedule.

France would have expected a natural lift with the arrival of the mastermind of the Toulouse golden-era, Guy Noves but yesterday provided a stark reminder that the French have some distance to go before they are serious contenders once more. Indeed, had in not been for a hometown call by referee, JP Doyle, Noves would have been enduring a tough Sunday in the French papers.

Along with many others, we would have been borderline dismissive of Italy but their effort yesterday game marked a continued improvement in the Azzurri’s recent performances, if not results.

Neither Scotland nor England gave much away yesterday and Eddie Jones will most likely be delighted to have picked up a maiden victory in a tricky fixture. Scotland huffed and puffed but rarely looked like blowing the door down, or even getting a peek in through it.

So, to Dublin on this afterenoon where Ireland face into Warren Gatland’s largely replenished Welsh side.

Ireland -v- Wales – Aviva Stadium, 7^th February 2016, 15:00

The Rory Best era gets under way in the most trying of circumstances this afternoon. Deprived by injury of seven probable starters, Best faces a scenario not unlike that one faced by today’s opponents, Wales, in the Rugby World Cup.

New Ireland captain, Rory Best, knows that his side will have it all to do today.

The endgame of Wales’ phenomenal victory over England in September was preceded by an almost macabre set of events as an already depleted side was shorn of Liam Williams, Scott Williams and Hallam Amos, two of whom were injury replacements themselves. Ultimately, their winning try was set up by replacement winger Lloyd Williams, a scrum half in his injury crisis-free, day job.

While Wales were ultimately battered into submission by a bigger, stronger South African side, it is worth remembering that Fourie Du Preez’s winning try came about as the result of a glorious flick from Duane Vermeulen. Right at the death.

While their supplies were radically diminished by mid-October, the Welsh jigsaw has almost been put back together and they face into a fixture that has held little fear for them in recent times. True, Ireland rolled over Wales two years ago but, absences both short-term and permanent from the pack mean the visitors have the unquestioned upper hand up front.

Warren Gatland has as ever engaged in his doublespeak, citing Jerome Garces scrum officiating as the reason for benching Gethin Jenkins while simultaneously describing the Frenchman as one of the best referees in the world. Gatland knows that Ireland have struggled with Garces’ interpretations in the past but you’d often wonder if the New Zealander would be better off saying nothing.

It is the Welsh engine room and backrow which holds the trump cards, however. Alun-Wyn Jones is now the preeminent second-row in Europe, while Gatland has finally plumped for the triumvirate of Justin Tipuric, Sam Warburton and Taulupe Faletau. This highly touted though largely untried combination could potentially wreak havoc, and Ireland, already down the influential Peter O’ Mahony and Sean O’ Brien will need huge performances from a fairly subdued-of-late Jamie Heaslip, CJ Stander and Tommy O’ Donnell. Incidentally, O’ Donnell’s return is one of the few bright spots in Irish rugby of late after that horrific injury in Wales last August.

The back row that many Welsh fans long for, Justin Tipuric, Sam Warburton (c) and Taulupe Faletau could cause major damage today.

CJ Stander has been outstanding for Munster over the last season and a half but today will be comfortably the biggest challenge of his career thus far. Today’s performance will be a considerable measure of the man and while there would be no shame in being bested by the Welsh unit, a dominant performance from the South African native would lay down a claim for a starting spot even after the injuries clear up.

Things are muddied somewhat at half back. Conor Murray and Jonathon Sexton on song are superior to the tandem of Gareth Davies and Dan Biggar but the Welsh pair were far the better performers in the World Cup. That said, none of the four bring particularly good form into Sunday’s game and the major question remains as to whether Sexton can regain the form of early 2015.

Further, Joe Schmidt’s decision to send Paddy Jackson back to Ulster for the weekend must have many people scratching their heads. The twenty-four-year old is unquestionably the form Irish out-half this season and, while no one is suggesting that he takes Johnny Sexton’s place on the field, his release seems counter-intuitive to any intimation that form would be rewarded

This is probably the first time since Sexton took possession of the Irish ten jumper that concerted criticism has been levelled at him. That is not to say that his place is remotely in question but memories fade and Paddy Jackson is now a legitimate option for Joe Schmidt. Sexton more than ever, needs to put in one of those performances that stamps his authority all over the game.

The injury to Rob Kearney has thrown up an interesting conundrum. Joe Schmidt could have made a like for like replacement and moved Jared Payne to fullback. In turn Robbie Henshaw could move to his more natural outside channel allowing Stuart McCloskey to debut at inside centre.

Schmidt craves stability though and has thus opted for Simon Zebo, a winger, at fullback. Presumably, McCloskey can’t be trusted in that channel against Jamie Roberts and to be fair, you can somewhat see where Schmidt is coming from in terms of desiring familiarity. However, cast your mind back to November 2014 and you will recall an untried pairing of Jared Payne and Robbie Henshaw putting in a blinding defensive performance to thwart South Africa.

McCloskey is an inside centre, he’s playing out of skin and he would allow Payne to roam as a second playmaker. And, we saw how little purchase the Payne-Henshaw combination got in Cardiff last March. We could yet be proven wrong but, it feels like the right time to put McCloskey into the fray. Otherwise, what? Let him dip his toes in Paris next weekend? Or the welcoming environs of South Africa in June?

There have been calls to move Jared Payne to his preferred full back role, but he remains at outside center today.

Irish rugby is shrouded in an exaggerated cloak of gloom at present. Yes, the Champions Cup campaigns were pretty disastrous but the nucleus of a strong international side remains and, in any event, the national team comes first, now more than ever. And, our visitors have proven that a strong national side should not necessarily rely on domestic sides thriving in Europe.

With regard to those calls for an expansive game, bear in mind that it’s due to rain this afternoon and this is February, not the most conducive month to free-flowing rugby. So, don’t expect an entirely new model. Today may prove a bridge too far given the number of notable absentees but a high-tempo performance and a remove from the much-maligned passive defensive system would represent a good start to the season.

Still, Wales have the stronger fifteen and the stronger bench and home advantage means little in this particular fixture. We can’t fight logic on this one.

Wales by 3

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