RWC 2019

And then there were four

In truth, Ireland really didn’t come very far from their humiliating loss in Twickenham back in August. The aftermath has been predictable in that defensive, dare we say naive, fans have taken the ‘leave our rugby-heroes alone’ approach while the begrudgers and, those who simply don’t like rugby, have been generous with their contempt after the beatdown from New Zealand. The main stick to beat the team is that after all the garlands bestowed upon them, they were unable to break a 32-year drought without a semi-final appearance.

It’s still puzzling as to why a semi-final appearance would sate everyone. If we had the same draw as Wales, we too would have probably limped past a self-destructive French side into a potentially winnable semi-final against South Africa. In a tournament where there are never more than four potential winners at any given time, surely the minimum standards for a high-achieving, ambitious side would be an appearance in the final?

Irish rugby and, indeed, where this team stands need to considered with objectivity and on a number of levels after this latest World Cup failing. And make no bones about it, 2019’s abject showing was far worse than the exit suffered in 2011 under the tutelage of the latterly maligned, Declan Kidney.

At World Rugby’s behest, and in service of their financial needs, the World Cup has taken on enormous importance. The Six Nations, however, is the IRFU’s great cash-cow. Under Joe Schmidt, the Aviva Stadium has generally been packed out and assisted by the totalitarian edicts of David Nucifora, almost all Irish players have continued to ply their trade domestically.

Isa Nacewa offered an interesting, if half-cocked, criticism of Schmidt this week when he said, amongst other things, Ireland were prevented from playing the attacking game Johnny Sexton likes due to a lack of players required to fit this creative template. Last weekend Sexton had both the Leinster centre pairing and Rob Kearney, so it’s hard to see how the personnel referred to by Nacewa were the problem.

Additionally, Ireland’s failings last week were often self-imposed so if you can identify the causal link between the “unstructured chaos” promoted by Lancaster, the rigidity of Schmidt’s regime and Johnny Sexton missing two handy touches then fair play to you.

Incidentally, Simon Zebo’s absence has never been more keenly felt. Sure, he could do with keeping schtum at times and he probably has too much personality for an authoritarian regime but Ireland left Japan as, unquestionably, one of the least impressive attacking teams in the tournament.

While the IRFU and Nucifora will probably never allow it, would it be the worst thing in the world if Ireland chose to pick players who ply their trade away from home? Ultimately, few would make the move as any shortfall in wages would be offset by the Irish game management system which does afford great protection to Irish internationals. It’s just a thought and it’s not like the departure of Zebo – who was unquestionably the star draw in Munster – has had an effect on attendances in Thomond Park and Musgrave Park.

Andy Farrell must be allowed introduce his own style of rugby which, admittedly, we aren’t familiar with yet. Mike Catt’s appointment doesn’t exactly fill one with joy and it’s a shame Ireland couldn’t do something to get former Otago and outgoing Japan attack-coach, Tony Brown on the new ticket. Hindsight comes into play here, of course.

Add in a dash of media-driven xenophobia if the all-English ticket struggles and it makes for an uncertain near future. Still, like it or not, Ireland need to change for the next World Cup and more importantly they need to adapt in the year leading up to the tournament.

It’s also particularly galling to note how much of a psychological impact the English defeat in February seemed to imprint on the Irish players psyche. Aside from the fact that Enda McNulty was in Japan to feed the players Deepak Chopra-isms – fair enough it works for some – it’s concerning that a team who appeared so ebullient less than 12 months ago could become so turgid and almost frightened to play. Why are other teams able to bounce back so quickly from inevitable setbacks that competitive sport brings?

Also, with the exception of the injured Dan Leavy, Sean O’ Brien and the erstwhile, Zebo, these are the best players currently available to Ireland. Some might make an argument for Devin Toner or even ,Donnacha Ryan but, in all reality, they wouldn’t have made a significant difference to the outcome in Toyo last weekend.

Conversely, we have just enjoyed the most successful era in Irish rugby so it will take measured consideration to establish just whwt went wrong.

If annoyance springs from a once overly sympathetic media, some annoyingly protective fans or presumptuous, twee advertising campaigns, the removal of these issues will not have any direct positive effect on the performance of the Irish team.

Ever since the supremely talented and successful, Roy Keane, questioned the defeatist attitude of Irish supporters, a disjointed, non-sensical ‘Why settle for second?’ attitude developed amongst Irish sports fans. True, punching above our weight is not a measurable achievement, and in any event Ireland don’t in fact punch their weight in rugby. And anyway, if McNulty can’t motivate the team to win, then who can?

If Farrell expands the Irish game plan, and his team struggle for a couple of years, sections of the clickbait, populist media will, no doubt, find cause for complaint. Nevertheless, if Ireland arrive at France 2023 with a cohesive attacking unit and the 36-year wait to reach a semi-final – which still seems a very unusual end-goal in a tournament with six potential winners – is finally ended, then surely everything will be rosy in the garden once more? .

On to this weekend’s semi-final previews.

New Zealand v England – Saturday 26^th October, 9:00am (Irish Time)

Though not directly opposite each other, Owen Farrell and Beauden Barrett should have a huge say in the outcome of tomorrow’s semi-final.

Eddie Jones is in heaven right now. England are rolling, he’s having a pretty amicable war of words with Steve Hansen and, most importantly, his English side look primed to hand New Zealand their first Rugby World Cup defeat since 2007.

If New Zealand had the alarmingly messy Irish put out of commission after 30 minutes last week, they know the opening salvo of Saturday’s contest will be extremely combative. As a precursor to this semi-final, we can cast our minds back to the tournament’s opening weekend and the breathless confrontation between South Africa and New Zealand. Hell for leather for an hour, South Africa walked off knowing that night that they’d likely be around come November, while the reigning champions immediately drew a line in the sand.

England, on the other hand, have worked their way efficiently through the tournament, before ruthlessly putting Australia away last week after the Wallabies had threatened to make a contest of it. With the greatest respect to the other semi-finalists, this is the game Jones will have been looking to since he took the English job, even when heads may have dropped imperceptibly low after the series defeat in South Africa in 2018. Oh, how some teams can bounce back in such a short period of time.

Jones, of course, is one of only two coaches this century to mastermind victory over a New Zealand side in the global showpiece, – Bernard Laporte in 2007 the other – leading Australia in 2003 to a 22-10 victory over the nation that many moons – a decade or so ago – were labelled bottlers on the biggest stage.

By a strange twist of fate, the man who lost his job as New Zealand coach that day, John Mitchell, is now Jones’ defensive coach. It’s intriguing, if little more than a notable historical footnote, that Mitchell could now be pivotal in the downfall of his own country’s attempt to achieve what will never be seen again, a hat trick of World Cup successes.

New Zealand have gone with Scott Barrett in the back row, clearly mindful of the dual threat offered by the English lineout either off the top or through their brutish, dominant maul. England have resisted the temptation to include George Kruis, who you imagine would be a locked in – no pun intended – starter in most sides.

What England do now possess, in addition to an unusual clean bill of health, is the exceptional back row tandem of Tom Curry and Sam Underhill. Underhill was missed in the Six Nations but fully rejuvenated, this high-energy, multi-faceted duo complement and facilitate the more destructive work of their man in the middle, Billy Vunipola.

Comparatively, New Zealand’s back-row were outstanding against Ireland, Kieran Read and Ardie Sa’vea imperious, in the best sense of the word. Sam Cane is gine but Hansen has his reasons. It’s difficult to say who will have the upper but while Ireland hoped for an unlikely return to 2018, England’s recent performances are proof that we can expect a ferocious and evenly fought contest from the opposing loose forwards.

There will be so many intriguing mini-battles throughout the field: Manu Tuilagi versus Jack Goodhue, George Ford versus Richie Mo’unga, Read and Vunipola and, though not directly opposite each other, Owen Farrell and Beauden Barrett

While New Zealand have long since shed the sense of trepidation that often shrouded them in World Cup knock-out games, they have acknowledged an English strength by selecting Barrett. However, in the same way New Zealand manipulate observers into thinking they kick far less than other teams, they also bandy the idea that they only focus on themselves. Which is a load of nonsense really as they’re far too intelligent and well-prepared to ignore the perceived strengths of the opposition.

While there is very little between the sides, England, though comprehensive victors on the scoreboard were cut apart by Australia regularly only to be saved by excellent scramble defence and failure to capitalise by what was admittedly one of the most average Australian sides in recent memory.

And, while their defence has been excellent under the watchful eye of Mitchell, if you’re scrambling against New Zealand, it usually means you’ll be in a team huddle under your posts in a minute or so.

These are definitely the two best sides left in the tournament and we’ve little hesitation in saying that the tournament winner will come from this semi-final. Both sides have quality strewn throughout and while England are no doubt confident, it’s New Zeland’s unparalleled competence that will get over the line.

S.U.S. Prediction: New Zealand by 4

SUS Tips: England +7 @ Evens

Jordie Barrett anytime try scorer @ 5/2

South Africa v Wales – Sunday 27^th October – 9:00 am (Irish Time)

It seems a little ridiculous to suggest the meeting of the The Rugby Championship and Grand Slam winners, South Africa and Wales, is the weaker of the semi-finals but all results to date suggest as much.

South Africa, to their credit, pushed New Zealand hard five weeks ago but at no point did it look like Rassie Erasmus’s side would pull off the relative upset. And yet, as South Africa walked off the pitch that night in Yokohama you knew no one was going to prevent them from pitching up this weekend.

Wales rightly joined the short list of contenders after an outstanding 2019 Six Nations, relying on belligerent defence, undying loyalty to Warren Gatland’s emotion based game and the world class incisions of Liam Williams.

Allied to Williams’ power, game-breaking ability and outstanding aerial skills was the craft and creativity of Gareth Anscombe, who recently provided a subtle alternative to the more direct, Dan Biggar. Sadly for Wales, Anscombe never made in to Japan and Williams injury, suffered in training this week, appears to have ruled out one of the world’s finest players from the tournament’s denouement.

Without these two, Wales revert to Biggar, an excellent replacement, and Leigh Halfpenny, another who has excelled in the Welsh red for over a decade now. Neither of these seasoned big-game performers will disappoint but, in a team full of honest robustness, Wales will desperately miss the extra attacking options that those absentees would have brought. Josh Navidi’s all-action game will also be missed.

While South Africa will be dealing from an almost full deck, they will, sadly for all onlookers, have to play with without their wild-card, Cheslin Kolbe. The diminutive winger lit up this year’s Heineken Cup and he has been a marvel at this World Cup. In the way that Lionel Messi mystifies with his balance and footwork, so too does Kolbe. His interjections lit up the opening weekend’s contest but it appears his race is run for the 2019 World Cup.

Kolbe will most certainly be missed but Makazole Mapimpi further confirmed his finishing prowess last weekend and, as ever, South Africa will rely first on their bruising go forward game, of which Damien de Allende forms such a key part. The massive centre was singled out for criticism four years ago when South Africa were memorably upset by Japan but he is now one of the finest number 12s in world rugby.

Where Ireland failed in recent times tying to impose a physical game on Wales, South Africa should have no such worries. The second row pairing of Lood de Jager and Eden Edzebeth are as imposing a duo as exists and the supporting cast of captain, Siya Kolisi, Duane Vermeulen and Pieter-Steph Du Toit will not be overwhelmed by the relentless, high-energy Welsh pack. In addition, the South African lineout, particularly in defence, is near peerless so it’s difficult to see where Wales will get the upper hand.

With a bit of data banked now, Wales opening victory over Australia looks far less impressive than it appeared at the time. And, frankly, they only won last weekend due to a gross lack of indiscipline that seems to be deeply ingrained in the psyche of French rugby.

Due to their attitude, a lot of which seems to be emotion-led, and admitted quality, Wales will never be blown out of a game and, therefore, will likely be in the contest into the last 10 minutes.

Wales, like Ireland, probably needed to be fully loaded to reach this World Cup final and shorn of their attacking fulcrums, they appear to lack the quality to overcome the challenge of this ever-improving Springbok side. South Africa can bombard you like no other side and, eventually, the Welsh house will come crumbling down.

SUS Prediction – South Africa by 9

Handicap Draw @ 25/1

Ireland v New Zealand, Irish Rugby, Rugby, RWC 2019

Time to end the streak

After six weeks of admittedly variable quality, we’re finally at the business end of the 2019 Rugby World Cup. Having been lucky enough to spend the first two weeks out there, we can say that Japan has delivered beyond our wildest expectations.

This, of course, should be considered in the context of the devastating Typhoon Hagibis. The typhoon caused untold damage to the island of Honshu and makes the self-absorbed threats of the SRU look increasingly laughable.

Unfortunately, as with the 2011 iteration in New Zealand, the time difference makes it very difficult for the public at home to really immerse themselves in the tournament. And, while it was easy to forget the rugby while travelling around that extraordinary country – like the rest of the Irish in Japan we had the audacity to enjoy ourselves even in the wake of defeat to Japan – the degree of negativity surrounding the team following that unexpected defeat has been proven to be excessive.

Scotland were torn apart for 60 minutes last Sunday, in far less trying conditions than Ireland faced in Shizuoka, and while it was most certainly the result Ireland didn’t want, it was difficult not to be won over by Japan. Certainly, we’ve been caught in the frenzy and instantly fell in love with the country, and if say England or New Zealand had performed as Japan have to date, pundits would be slobbering over them.

Kotaro Matsushima and Kenki Fukuoka have provided moments of magic akin to those of Cheslin Kolbe, and, their pack, led by their adored captain, Michael Leitch, have provided quick ball on foot of outstanding, manic rucking. They move the ball with the same speed and accuracy as the reigning champions and their fans have been extraordinary.

It was incredible to hear that volunteers whose homes had been destroyed by Hagibis still turned up early on Sunday morning to ensure the final group match would go ahead. There are some snide critics of the unquestioning self-discipline of the Japanese but their sense of duty and generosity was never so vividly displayed than as last Sunday.

Japan are deemed to have played their final already by many but there’s a sense that the hulking – massively hulking – South Africans won’t have it all their own way on Sunday. The real winners on that side of the draw are Wales, however.

Warren Gatland’s side were brilliant for 60 minutes against Australia before the northern hemisphere’s great enemy, the humidity, kicked in and they were really holding on by the end. They were fitful against Fiji but now find themselves with the perceived easiest quarter final opponent in France.

Gatland, French unknowns, rampant South Africans and the exuberant Japanese are the least of Ireland’s worries right now though, as the back-to-back word champions and presumptive saviours of humanity, New Zealand, await on Saturday.

We all know at this stage that good All-Blacks, including Sevu Reece apparently, make good people and that the sun shines out of everyone of them. Incidentally, while Guinness and Vodafone have been wildly successful on turning people off the Irish team, New Zealand’s sponsors have been churning out this bile-inducing shite for years to little or no criticism.

Undefeated in the World Cup in 12 years, New Zealand go into Saturday’s quarter final as red-hot favourites and rightly so. While they are not the supreme side of four years ago – who admittedly scraped by South Africa in the semi-final – they are the best in the world and their ability to succeed in high leverage situations is unmatched.

Ireland did beat them last November but that seems like an eternity ago now. There is a cautionary tale that nobody beats New Zealand back-to-back but given this is knock out rugby past results are largely irrelevant. The last and only time these sides met at a World Cup, young phenom Jonah Lomu erupted on to the scene, shortly after Gary Halpin gave the most ill-advised middle finger in sporting history. For many, this writer included, Lomu remains the most exhilarating, electrifying player to ever grave the field, rugby’s equivalent of The Rock.

While Lomu’s New Zealand side never managed to get their hands on the William Webb Ellis trophy, the current side, captained by all-time great, Kieran Read, look well primed to reel off a hat-trick of tournament victories. And yet this side, more than ever, have shown vulnerability over the past 18 months.

Notwithstanding the quality of the incumbents, the New Zealand back row and midfield are simply brilliant, and not the standard bearers as was the case four years ago. Ma’a Nonu, Conrad Smith and Richie McCaw were generational talents and Sonny-Bill Williams 2019 is, unsurprisngly, a lesser version of the younger model. This is not to say that this is a weak by any stretch New Zealand but they simply do not hold the aura of their predecessors who, admittedly, may have been the best side of all time.

Because you never get tired of watching this man in full flight.

On the tournament’s opening weekend, New Zealand prevailed over South Africa in a thrilling contest while Ireland delivered a dominant victory over an appalling Scottish side. Watching both games, you would hazard that Ireland were never going to live with the Kiwis. The events in the forests of Shizuoka a week later – aside from providing fuel for bell ends like Ewan McKenna and Colm Parkinson – did little to dispel the notion that Ireland were nowhere nearer to breaking their World Cup quarter-final hoodoo.

And yet….. Ireland have probably produced four of their eight best performances during Schmidt’s reign against New Zealand. Perhaps, psychologically, the Kiwis bring Ireland up to their level, or Ireland know anything far from their best will mean humiliation. Whatever the reason, the last six years have provided four superb matches between the sides, each side winning tough in low scoring affairs while also coming away victorious after free-flowing contests.

New Zealand, as is often the case, are being credited with reinventing the wheel by placing their outstanding out-half, Beauden Barrett, at full-back to allow him chime into the line at will. Aside from the fact that this has been the practice in rugby league for years, a friend pointed out that New Zealand were already doing this with Damien McKenzie prior to his injury. Admittedly, when Barrett moves to number 10 after 60 minutes, the game is liable to open up but Ireland can starve him of ball if they kick with intelligence. That said New Zealand are outstanding at pressurising possession and making you put the ball where they want it.

If Barrett is crucial to New Zealand in various guises, no one player is more important to Ireland’s chance of success than Jonathan Sexton. Joey Carberry and Jack Carty may be the future but right now Ireland’s game revolves so completely around Sexton that it is almost worrying, in the sense that if New Zealand can shut him down then the Irish team will be back in Dublin by next Tuesday night. Injury and stark conservatism have prevented Ireland from finding a creative option outside of Sexton and with Schmidt opting for Rob Kearney, there is no sense of Ireland’s out-half being able to rely on an extra layer of playmaking from the back field.

Given the nature of Schmidt’s selction policies, no one really expected Jordan Larmour to start so you can expect conservative, high-intensiy rugby from Ireland. Ireland need Conor Murray and Peter O’ Mahony to perform at their peak while Iain Henderson needs to prove why Devin Toner has been left back home. One player from the Chicago victory is conspicuous by his absence but as we have learned under Schmidt, all players are equal but some players – who play out-half for Ireland and Leinster – are more equal than others.

Ireland may not be at the heights of November but, frankly, they don’t need to be. South Africa found cracks on the opening weekend and Ireland have absolutely no reason to fear this side. Yes, we’ve found various ways to lose at the quarter final stage and the route to tournament victory is extremely tough but like the MLB playoffs, Ireland need only care about the next game up.

The Gods have gathered in Izumo Taisha Grand Shrine for the month of October for their Kamuhakari. While we’re not partiacurlay religious in this neck of the woods, we find the Shinto religion fascinating. The Kamigami – all eight million of them – held their Kamiari Sai last week where they decided on the outcome of certain major events throughout the coming year. Ideally, they’ll have a word with Nigel Owens and ask him to ref the game properly and not for maximum entertainment levels.

An unprecedetned era of success for Irish rugby will end shortly when Joe Schmidt and his family return home. This would be some feather to add to the cap. Ireland, just.

Straight Up Sport prediction – Ireland to win @ 5/1

Ireland v Wales, Irish Rugby, Rugby World Cup 2019 Warm Ups

Deja Vu All Over Again

We could all learn a little from staying in the moment. Late last year as the country grew giddy up in the aftermath of a victory over New Zealand, Gerry Thornley suggested on Second Captains that rather looking to the Rugby World Cup, we should simply enjoy the victory over the world’s best side in isolation.

However, unlike athletes or more reasoned people, the Irish public couldn’t help but point to another indication that we were ready to compete seriously in Japan. In light of a disquieting 2019 for the Irish rugby team, perhaps we should have taken heed of Thornley’s advice.

Barring victory against a completely disinterested French side, the Six Nations brought ill tidings for this Irish team. If Joe Schmidt’s side were hoodwinked by England, there could no argument that the Welsh caught us by surprise in Cardiff on St Patricks weekend. Even allowing for the caveats sprinkled liberally hereafter, Ireland’s prospects of success in Japan in the coming months have been blunted to the point of impotence.

While it is the natural for the sporting public – in all countries not just Ireland – to overreact to the fortunes of their team, it is not unreasonable for us to wonder just what exactly has gone wrong with this Irish team?

People have been at pains to point out that Ireland were only playing their second warm up match on Saturday evening, while England had already faced Wales twice in increasingly competitive fixtures. That might give you a little grace, particularly from the point of view of match fitness, but it will take considerably longer to establish why Ireland defended so wretchedly from the off? Or why each English first phase play looked like a move orchestrated by the Stephen Larkham-era Australians?

The first, and gravest concern, is that Ireland are not the type of team who can simply, like Dustin Johnson, completely forget their bad days, dust themselves off and move on to the next challenge. A record-breaking defeat against England in Twickenham four weeks out from the start of the World Cup is exceptionally worrying. And, one would have to wonder why – outside of presumed financial incentives – why the IRFU chose to play a bulldozing English side in Twickenham at this point in Ireland’s preparations?

England, of course, had already picked their 31 players to travel to Japan and this was probably the last run out for the first fifteen but for anyone over the age of 30, there was more than a hint of the dark days of the 1990s and early 2000s, when England routinely demoralised and disassembled Ireland. There were so many worrying aspects to Ireland’s performance though. With the exception of a fairly solid scrum, every facet of Ireland’s game malfunctioned with aplomb.

While miserable, Brazil-based troll journalists bask in the recent failings of the Irish rugby team, while rambling incoherently about the Celtic Tiger, it seems the rest of the country are alarmed, though not surprised, by the continued dip in form. Most reasonable observers though will note the same failings that surrounded the 2015 World Cup are bubbling to the surface once more.

Ireland defended narrowly and passively, which is a combination destined for failure. Most sides that defend narrowly at least rush up and in to force the attack to make decisions – you see this every week in both codes of rugby – but Ireland’s lack of cohesion in defence was mystifying. Bundee Aki seemed to bite too often but Jacob Stockdale too made some dreadful defensive reads, as did Rob Kearney to a lesser extent.

Allied to the obvious systemic failings in the defence was the rash of missed tackles with Joe Cockinasinga, Jonny May and the outstanding Manu Tuil’agi repeatedly going over or around the Irish defence.

Ross Byrne, making his full debut, must have surveyed proceedings shortly after half time and grown jealous of Jack Carty but the Connacht man was thrown into the fray shortly thereafter and his job was akin to the little boy plugging the holes in the dam in Holland. On a day when the problems begun up front, Byrne can’t be to blame but Carty’s selection against Wales suggests that his selection, injury aside, is a done deal.

Of course, this decision is predicated on the fact that Joey Carberry will have recovered in time, and, if he doesn’t then this decision becomes moot and both inexperienced out halves will travel to Japan as cover for a yet to be seen, Johnny Sexton.

Despite the fact they were a step ahead in their progress and playing to a home crowd, England should go to Japan marginally behind New Zealand as favourites. However, any concerns over having to face an England team bloated on confidence should be parked for the foreseeable future, particularly with an ebullient Warren Gatland and Wales waiting in the wings tomorrow.

Wales are resting more than half their starting fifteen, giving full debuts to two players, Owen Lane and Rhys Carre, and a first start to out-half, Jarrod Evans. Still, while the task on paper isn’t as daunting as last week, Wales look have picked largely from where they left off in March and the players and fans will be desperate to give Gatland a winning send-off in his last home game as Wales coach.

Ireland have two matches and realistically three weeks to get things right. The result on Saturday should not be viewed through the prism of past failings, or certainly no earlier than 2015. This is Joe Schmidt’s second time round, we know he is leaving and yet it feels like the team has fallen flat since the turn of the year.

Four years ago, Ireland were undone by what appeared to be a lack of depth. For the last two years, the depth in this Irish squad has been trumpeted so where lies the explanation, apart from the fact that depth generally dissipates when you have to actively call on it.

There are two schools of thought on how to approach the Six Nations or, indeed, the Rugby Championship in the year of a Rugby World Cup. The first, which applies almost exclusively to New Zealand, is that you try out as many players and combinations, with the overarching intention of winning, of course. The second, which applies to everyone else, and as succinctly put by Jay Rock, and, by Clive Woodward last week is to win every game. That was the plan England put in place in 2002/2003 with each victory instilling deeply ingrained belief and tenacity. We’ve seen how the beating by England in February seemingly crushed the confidence of an Irish team who were only three months removed from a brilliant victory over New Zealand.

Warren Gatland and Joe Schmidt have experienced extremely different build ups to the World Cup as they both enter the final months of their current roles.

Ireland were massively successful on the back of a game plan which they could only dream of for years, able to physically overpower the likes of England and South Africa. After being turned inside out in Dublin, Cardiff and now London, what will Schmidt do?

Controlling the ball doesn’t really matter if all you can offer is static one out runners or an shift of the ball wide without penetrating through the central area of the pitch. We’re beating the same monotonous drum here but beyond offering banalities like ‘In Joe We Trust’ or that something is being held back – we’d suggest everything at this stage – pundits and ex-players alike seem to at a loss.

We are all aware of the impeccable attention to detail that Schmidt applies to his game plan and the fact his team is – akin to NFL players – tasked with absorbing mines of information with a view to making in-game decisions based on what they see. Oxymoronically, it seems that players get cut adrift if they try something risky – often known as an offload – and it doesn’t come off. This was fine when we were able to carry and clear impeccably but now that teams are gang tackling – throwback to Wellington in 2011 – and steaming up quickly, the attack looks devoid of ideas.

Unlike the rest of us, Schmidt, his coaches and the Irish squad are not in the business of overreacting so you suspect that while they were chastened after last week, they possess an unerring belief that they can turn things around quickly.

Ireland aren’t the only team with problems – South Africa have had a fairly tumultuous week – but more than anyone given our World Cup pedigree, or lack thereof, the situation needs to be ameliorated before the plane leaves for Asia.

There are questions over hooker, back row, centre and our captain, not to mention Joey Carberry’s ankle. Moreover, there is the fact that we haven’t beaten a top six team in 2019. That alone should provide Ireland with enough motivation tomorrow. After last weekend Ireland should forget about learnings and work-ons. Just win.

Straight Up Prediction: Ireland by 4

#Boxing, Boxing

The Legend of the Garden Continues

Hall of famer, Marvin Hagler, once said, “It’s tough to get out of bed to do roadwork at 5am when you’ve been sleeping in silk pajamas (sic)”. Amongst the many theories abounding after Anthony Joshua’s shock defeat to Andy Ruis Jr. last Saturday night, this one may ring most true. Entourages 20 deep and luxury apartments in Dubai sound great but at some the hunger must wane, the ruthless desire must dim just a little.

In any event, after the massive upset in the vaunted main hall in Madison Square Garden, heavyweight boxing is back to its equilibrium state of chaotic uncertainty. Ruiz Jr, a man you would quite frankly never mistake for an athlete, destroyed an over-confident Joshua to throw the division into disarray and, more importantly, secure his family’s future.

Usually, on nights like this, the champion is caught by an unexpected haymaker – think Hasim Rahman over Lennox Lewis – a one-off punch that cements the underdog’s status in the annals of shock victories. However, Ruiz Jr, whose physique had made him the easy butt of jokes throughout fight week, regrouped after a third-round knock-down to pummel Joshua into submission and shock not just the Garden but the entire sporting world.

Ruiz Jr had the now deposed champion down on four separate occasions, the first of those in the third round being particularly devastating, and the question marks over Joshua’s defence and jaw that have abound since his wild victory over Wladimir Klitschko in 2016 resurfaced.

Boxing, and particularly the heavyweight division, has the ability to frustrate and thrill in equal measure, often simultaneously. The events of the last few months have been no different. Joshua had been slated to make his American debut against Jarrell ‘Big Baby’ Miller, the latter a loud-mouthed, New Yorker who seemed a perfect fit for Joshua. However, Miller, a 22 stone behemoth, whose stamina somehow endured into the later rounds was found guilty of balls out doping – perhaps in a nod to late 90s Tour de France – failing tests for HGH, GW1516 and EPO, costing himself millions in the process and leaving Matchroom, DAZN and Eddie Hearn with a huge void to fill.

While it may be hard to believe now, it turns out that Jarrell Miller took all the drugs.

Apparently a $5,000,000.00 purse was placed on the table but the uptake was slow, with the tricky Cuban, Luis Ortiz, reportedly rejecting more money that has ever been placed before him. Enter Ruiz, who made his desire to fight Joshua known to Eddie Hearn via a message on Instagram. Ruiz had only last fought in April – notably against Alexander Dimitrenko, a perfect tune-up for Anthony Joshua – and was out of camp for only six weeks before returning to work with Manny Robles. Even with this, the experts gave the Mexican American little chance.

Mike Costello and Steve Bunce of the BBC Five Live Boxing Podcast had noted the surprising hand speed of the challenger during last week’s workouts, allied to the fact that Ruiz’ only defeat had come by split decision at the hands of New Zealander, Joseph Parker, two years ago in Auckland. No one viewed Ruiz, to borrow from boxing vernacular, as a bum but he also was barely cracking the major division’s top ten.

Joshua had not been slow to speak of his plans for 2020 when interviewed midweek, not least when his arch-nemesis, Deontay Wilder, had been quick to announce his own rematch with Ortiz and then the much anticipated super-fight with Tyson Fury in February 2020. While it is unquestioned that Joshua allowed his attention to slip just slightly – that’s all that’s required when gigantic men are swinging for you – rumours have swirled about in the fight’s aftermath of the Briton’s preparation to the fight, with some suggesting that he was sparked in sparring less than a fortnight before fight night.

For those who love boxing, the mythos and conjecture form a large part of the post-fight synopsis, and rumours will swirl around until such time as Joshua gloves up and fights again. Until then, questions of a flu, the now infamous sty in the eye, alleged anxiety attacks and a perceived gun shyness will be prevalent.

What is unquestionable is that the tables have turned drastically on Joshua and the braggadocio Hearn in the last six months. Fresh off his stoppage of the tricky but aging Russian, Alexander Povetkin in September, Joshua was issued what appeared to be a legitimate offer – reputed to be worth north of $35,000,000.00 – to face Deontay Wilder in a unification bout for the four recognised heavyweight titles. While Matchroom and Premier Boxing Champions/Al Haymon, Wilder’s promoter, are equally flexible with the truth, it does seem that team Joshua were happy to milk the sold out stadiums in the UK, while basking in the glory of the defeat of the 40 year-old, Klitschko.

When Wilder and Fury sprang their surprise date in L.A. last December, the sense was that Hearn and Joshua had been caught unaware, this time by the wily, Frank Warren. That fight provided one of the best final rounds in heavyweight boxing history and it seemed the big three – Fury, Wilder and Joshua – would engage in a de facto round robin for the next 18 months.

The thrill and anticipation for these fights was frustratingly pierced by ESPN’s move to sign Fury to an exclusive US deal separating him, in a broadcasting context, from Joshua (DAZN) and Wilder (Showtime/Fox). With Fury now in the money, Joshua in possession of three belts and Wilder’s promoters loathe to give up the remaining belt, it felt as if boxing fans would be held hostage to three ridiculously rewarding and divergent financial arrangements.

However, due to fate and the unforeseen intervention of stupidity, drugs and Ruiz’ earnest appeal to Hearn, the division has been flushed wide open once more. And, more importantly, in a twist of fate that no one could have anticipated, Haymon’s PBC signed Ruiz to their stable a mere matter of months ago. PBC has gone from protecting one belt to now possessing all four. Ordinarily, possession is nine tenths of the law, however, in boxing possession is the only show in town.

Joshua may be the most marketable face in boxing – you’ve definitely seen him smiling at you from a bus stop or billboard over the last two years – but if he doesn’t win the rematch with Ruiz later this winter, then the opportunities will dry up almost instantly, unless Haymon and Warren decide otherwise.

In the wake of the drama in the Garden, it has become evident that America is alive to boxing for the first time in years. Sure, Floyd Mayweather’s fights were popular events but there was little of the mystique and the obscure, raw magic that surrounded the sport in the middle of the 20^th century. Hard core fans always cared, predominantly the Central American community, but casual fans – the ones who can really effect pay-per-view numbers – are intrigued again.

Even if you are a Joshua fan, there’s something eminently appealing in seeing the quietly-spoken, endearing underdog prevailing over a corporate darling who had arrived on US soil to announce himself to the masses. Ruiz says he has been bullied since he was six over his weight, though you suspect plenty of his tormentors have received the appropriate justice in the years since. More to the point, Ruiz is now at the top table with Fury and Wilder, while Joshua must regroup and prepare for his rematch with Ruiz – announced for November or December – in the knowledge that his career is at a major crossroads.

The suggestion was that Joshua would take Ruiz to the UK but the already unconvinced US crowd will become even more sceptical if Joshua decides to take his ball home after one tough night in boxing’s most revered venue.

Money can surely no longer be an issue, so, if Joshua still wants to create the legacy he has spoken of, he must do so in Vegas or Los Angeles this winter. Steve Bunce thinks the fight will take place in Los Angeles and if Joshua really is the banger he says he is, this shouldn’t be a problem.

While a mega fight between two undefeated champions would have done incredible numbers, the fans will come in droves to see Joshua versus either Fury or Wilder in 2020, not to mention the Ruiz rematch later this year. And, while this sounds incredible, an undefeated record is no prerequisite for greatness. Ali, Foreman, Hopkins, De la Hoya, Pacquiao – all unquestioned hall-of famers with multiple defeats on their resume.

HBO and Sky Sports are as guilty as anyone of promoting the much lauded undefeated versus undefeated contests but the problem is most fighters will enjoy countless easy victories on the way to a 30-0 record. Thus, you get a vacuum where the two or three best in the division circle each other for years until a generally unsatisfactory showdown takes place long after the public’s appetite has piqued.

The 60s, 70s and 80s were a bloodbath, where it would have been quite literally impossible to escape with respect, money and an unbeaten record.

A recurring theme as discussed recently by Kris Mannix and Max Kellerman is that boxers and fans want two different things. Boxers want to make as much as money as possible while, understandably, putting themselves through as little punishment as possible. Fans, however, want the best fights, and for the majority of fans, the best fights are brawls. It’s easy for fight fans to forget that the boxers ultimately want to get out of there in tact mentally and physical and avoiding the best fighters is conducive to this.

The promoters and broadcasters have to deal with the double edged sword they create when lionising their undefeated fighters. Fury v Wilder is theoretically the best fight out there as neither man has tasted defeat but the next instalment of Joshua v Ruiz is, in many ways, more compelling. Ruiz is about to walk away with €20 million plus – and will be subject to patronising platitudes for the next five months. Should he win again, though, he cements his place at the top of the division. Meanwhile, Joshua, who has worked so hard to create the persona of a carefree destroyer now must ignore all his fly by night, celebrity pals, knuckle down with Rob McCracken and reintroduce his brutal side.

Fans had become irked at the reticence of Matchroom to make the Wilder fight. Now, faced with adversity for the first time in years, Joshua can endear himself to the boxing, and general sporting, public by coming back against Ruiz and then potentially putting himself in line for a contest against the winner of Fury-Wilder II.

It’s virtually impossible to chart the course of something so volatile as the heavyweight division. Only weeks ago, conversations on the division were fraught with frustration and irritation. However in the space of seven dynamic rounds, the powerful hands of Andy Ruiz Jr – the most unlikely king of the giants – have suddenly filled the next 12 months with infinite promise.

Irish Rugby, Six Nations 2019

Ireland v France – Preview

Fine Gael’s popularity is plummeting, English politicians are offending innocent victims of the Troubles and Manchester United are raising smiles – for some of us – with Fergie-time victories; it feels just like the 90s again. And, after signs of life in a Paris a fortnight ago, are France set to continue this 90s revival on Sunday afternoon against the unusually beleaguered Irish side?

Joe Schmidt can’t put his finger on the cause of Ireland’s recent malaise while Shane Horgan triggered PTSD in some quarters as a result of his fleeting reference to the inexplicable aberration in 2007. No matter that it was an entirely different playing squad and management team, he was simply applying his own subjective experience to an unrelated group of individuals.

Ireland may be struggling of late but if you take the pervading sense of doom at face value, then Joe Schmidt’s squad should probably accept that the World Cup quarter final hurdle is, once more, going to unseat them.

Amid the jittery atmosphere that no amount of cheesy, irritating ‘Team Of Us’ ads can soothe, it’s worth taking stock of the team’s performances to date in the 2019 Six Nations.

England arrived on 2^nd February almost fully loaded and with ample motivation after the closing day humiliation in Twickenham less than 12 months previously. They led from kick off basically, thoroughly dominated the collisions, got the bounce of the ball and a pivotal forward pass call and came out as comfortable winners.

Ireland would inevitably be skittish after this result and the upcoming trip to Edinburgh was fraught with peril, particularly when you consider that Ireland had lost there on their last visit. A nine-point victory was largely dismissed, though Joey Carberry’s emergence from a shaky start to steer the team home commendably was widely accepted as a positive.

Funnily enough, Horgan and Shane Jennings stressed how impressed they were by Wales’ seven point victory over Scotland this afternoon, a result that was far less assured than the Irish win. Yet, Ireland – nine point winners in Edinburgh – were criticised for being flat and devoid of ideas.

The response to the Italian victory was similarly reactionary. Schmidt made changes as expected, where it is worth noting that our fifth and sixth choice second rows were selected to start. Ireland started reasonably well but an early injury to Bundee Aki worryingly threw the backline into disarray and then, to the surprise of everyone, Italy came out and played some brilliant rugby. While their tries and numerous surges downfield came on the back of Irish mistakes, rather than laud Italy, people chose to criticise Ireland.

For the last two years, fans and media alike have crowed on about how weak Italy are and that their presence devalues the Six Nations. However, when Italy then arrive and provide a really impressive performance – the brain fart for Jacob Stockdale’s try aside – few are willing to give Conor O’ Shea’s side any credit.

Would people prefer hand out platitudes after a nine-try walkover or instead accept that Italy played well for 80 minutes – a facet sorely missing from their game traditionally – and Ireland, with seven first choice players missing, had to dig very deep? This isn’t to say that Ireland were particularly good in Rome, but they scored four tries and gave starts to a number of fringe first-teamers.

The tournament has been underwhelming from an Irish perspective, but our view is that the problems to date stem from a more obvious source. To operate at their highest level, all great teams require a highly functioning spine. In the 12 months leading up to this year’s Six Nations, Ireland’s spine of Rory Best, Conor Murray, Jonathan Sexton and Rob Kearney performed at an extremely high level over a sustained period of time.

2019 has been a different kettle of fish, however: Best’s form has been patchy all season, Murray is still feeling his way back from his highly publicised injury, Sexton has struggled to string consecutive decent performances together looking rattled in patches, and, Kearney is another who has struggled with injuries while generally failing to impress. These are four of Ireland’s longest serving members and to a large extent, the experienced core of a side will set the tone for performance levels.

It’s simply not enough to say that Ireland’s players lack confidence as Keith Earls and Jacob Stockdale were both excellent in Edinburgh and Rome. The English defeat may have dismayed the team but it was only one game and if the players really were affected that badly then the confidence created by the exceptional performances of 2018 appears to be unusually brittle.

Sunday sees the return of Cian Healy, Best, James Ryan, Iain Henderson, Josh van der Flier, CJ Stander and Garry Ringrose and while depth has clearly been nurtured in the squad, this is the strongest 15 available.

Stander’s impact, honed on an enormous work, rate often goes unappreciated as though many are still expecting him to return to his tackle busting ways in his breakout season for Munster. Along with Ryan, he will provide a willing battering ram – though sometimes you do wish space was targeted ahead of the man – and make upwards of 15 tackles.

Henderson too has, not so much a point to prove, as an opportunity to illustrate that the Irish lineout is still a highly functioning unit in the absence of Devin Toner. Even in stormy seas, Toner has proven to be a beacon for Best, so his club mate, Henderson, will hope he can assume this mantle. Toner has been part of all the recent Irish success so Henderson must make the most of his opportunity.

What of Sunday’s visitors, the improving French, who in an extraordinary break from tradition have retained their match day squad from the victory over Scotland last time out.

Antoine Dupont sparkled as anticipated while Romain Ntamack, and, Thomas Ramos at the back also provided eye-catching performances for the stricken, Jacques Brunel. With an identical 23 to the last time out, the old cliché must be dropped, at least for one week, as we genuinely do know which France is going to turn up!

However, rumours of the French shackles having been removed and a new era of carefree, freewheeling rugby are slightly wide of the mark. The French did play some lovely rugby in the first half and Yoann Huget should never, ever be selected away from the wing again.

Having said that, France beat an injury-stricken Scottish side – without Stuart Hogg, Finn Russell and two of their starting front row – who with two minutes left were 10 metres out from the French line. France subsequently surged down the field and were incorrectly allowed feed the scrum that led to their bonus point try and winning margin of 17 points.

France want to impose themselves as before at the set piece but Ireland, with the full complement in tow, can no longer be bullied at scrum time. Tight head, Demba Bamba, is being highly touted in France and will be interesting how his clash with Cian Healy unfolds.

More interesting still will be to see how much debris is left strewn across the midfield after Bundee Aki and Mathieu Bastereaud collide for the first time. Despite repeated allusions to the fact that Robbie Henshaw and Ringrose must form Ireland’s midfield, Aki – his departure in Rome aside – has been the mainstay since his November debut 2017 against South Africa. True, you would not mistake his passing for Matt Giteau’s but he carries intelligently and powerfully, defends aggressively and can find an opening running north to south or into a wider gap. Though shackled against England, there’s potential for this combo, with Sexton as orchestrator, to unlock a French midfield that will hope to meld Sexton’s old nemesis, Bastereaud, with the more elusive, Gael Fickou.

Fans over the age of 30 will remember the powerful, classy, Emile Ntamack, carving through a prone Irish defence throughout the halcyon days of the 90s – when a game plan could revolve solely around ‘getting the ball to Geoghegan’ – and it seems the time has come for son, Romain to deliver on the extraordinary promise displayed in last years U20s World Cup.

Romain Ntamack is part of the current Toulouse youth movement and while it will inevitably spell trouble for Ireland, there is something wonderfully exciting about seeing young French players who care only for enjoying their rugby and playing with the type of self-expression that is so widely lacking in the often dour world of professional rugby today.

This may come in flashes on Sunday but an improved performance against a bedraggled Scottish side isn’t cause for Ireland to be cowed. Ireland come equipped with what is close to their first 15 and France have been anaemic away from Paris for years. The visitors may sparkle intermittently but Ireland, once again, have a point to prove.

SUS Prediction – Ireland by 8

Tips

France +14 (Evens)
C.J. Stander anytime try scorer (3/1)

Six Nations 2019

Italy v Ireland – Six Nation Preview

It’s less than fortunate that Ireland’s game this Sunday comes with a fortnight break either side of it. Few believe Italy will pose much of a problem yet perhaps still chastened from our opening round defeat to England, it appears few changes will be made. And, in the midst of the malaise that Italy seem to induce, Gordon D’Arcy has gone all Mick Jenkins and encouraged Ireland to go play some jazz in the Stadio Olimpico. .

Not so long ago, Joe Schmidt spoke about finding options for the World Cup quarter final and it seems that Joey Carberry has already jumped from adequate replacement to a genuine threat to the throne. Johnathan Sexton is still the undoubted first choice number ten but Carberry’s recovery from the intercept and subsequent 50 minute performance in Edinburgh provides more than just food for thought.

Given the fact that the encounter in Rome is close to a foregone conclusion, we’re going to change it up a little this week and provide a short preview of each game starting with the next step in Ireland’s strangely off-key performances to date.

Italy v Ireland – 3:00pm, 24^th February 2019, Stadio Olimpico

Given the mixed results Ireland have achieved in Scotland in recent visits, it’s hard to be overly disappointed with a two-score victory over a resurgent side who we’ve been promised are on the cusp of something. To be fair to Scotland, they looked very threatening at times in the first half but like Parnell, they are too often the architects of their own downfall.

That said, after half time, Ireland closed the game down as a contest, guided wonderfully by a man, Joey Carberry, who couldn’t have started his time on the field in worse circumstances. Carberry’s loose pass may have been well picked off by Finn Russell, but it shows how far the Athy man has come since his disastrous outing against the USA in June 2017 that he was able to bounce back, produce the moment’s outstanding moment of offence, and, steer Ireland home down the stretch. Even his sealing kick, fifteen to the right, thirty out – historically not a great place for place kicks late in games – was completely nerveless. Carberry may have endured a torrid night in Castres back in December, but he’s been faultless from the kicking tee since and his general game continues to evolve.

It seems remiss to be talking about a player who won’t be playing but in a bizarre about turn, it appears the Irish coaching staff want their 80 cap, reigning World Player of the Year to get some game time under his belt. Surely a tune up in Rome won’t reveal anything we don’t already know about Sexton and he didn’t look in fantastic nick when he left the field in Edinburgh. Before Joey Carberry was ruled out through injury, it appeared Sexton was going to play anyway and while he is short on game time, it just didn’t seem necessary. Carberry is out, however, so there’s no point in exploring hypotheticals.

Perhaps it’s a little disrespectful to view Italy as such a weak opponent but Ireland have obliterated them in recent years. The legendary Sergio Parisse misses out, though of late, the great man’s body refuses to do the bidding of his mind. Italy need to find a number of players to carry the load of their record-breaking captain. By all accounts, Conor O’ Shea has revolutionised the Italian under-age set up but reports suggest that he may not be there to be see the fruits of his labour.

The clamour, or murmur really, for the introduction of relegation and promotion to the Six Nations will probably rear its head on Monday if Ireland run riot but unless Italy have crafted some extraordinary version of the rope-a-dope, then the result will be another resounding Irish victory.

For the past 12 months, this game has always stood out as the opportunity for Joe Schmidt to try some of the peripheral players: Jordan Larmour, Andrew Conway, Carberry, David Kilcoyne, Tadhg Beirne, Seán Cronin and now, perhaps, Robbie Henshaw at full-back. His decision to, if not err on the side of caution, then certainly remain conservative, will serve Ireland well in the short term but in reality it’s the last opportunity – outside the unpredictable interloper, injury – to provide these players with game time before the Samoa game in October. Only Kilcoye and Cronin start out of the players named above and Beirne doesn’t even make the bench.

Still, Ireland are actually back in a place from we thrive, slightly underrated by outsiders and gradually building up a head of steam. It’s not clear to anyone where Italy are. All 23 Irish players should get a decent run out and if the margin of victory is hard to predict, the result is most certainly not.

SUS Prediction – Ireland by 20

Tips – Sean Cronin, Andrew Conway and Chris Farrell to score anytime @ 17/2

France v Scotland, 2:15pm, 23^rd February 2019, Stade de France

It’s actually quite difficult to assess what progress, if any, Scotland have made since last year’s Six Nations. While shorn of a number of forwards for the visit of Ireland, the same sloppiness and general lack of accuracy at vital moments prevented Scotland from mounting any real threat to Ireland in the final 30 minutes.

In addition to depleted front row stocks, the Scots are now also without Finn Russell, Stuart Hogg and Huw Jones for their visit to the Stade de France. While Russell and Hogg, in particular, are massive losses this match will provide the Scottish with an opportunity to test their strength in depth. However, if any single player in the tournament was to provide an active definition of ‘x factor’, it would be Hogg.

The closest comparison you can draw to France at the moment, at least in terms of haplessness and a complete lack of accountability, is the HSE. To be fair to France, though, at least their future looks bright with a cohort of successful under 20s hopefully set to make their mark in the next two years.

For now, Jacques Brunel’s side are a complete mess. And, the main reason we don’t know what France side we’re going to get each week is because of the wholesale, largely whimsical changes in personnel.

Jacques Brunel seems to know as much about his players as Shane Ross does about Irish sport. (photo leparisien.fr)

The French effectively contrived to twice win and yet still lose their opening day contest against Wales. While Yoann Huget’s insouciance – and not in the traditionally cool, French way – and Sebastian Vahaamina’s ill-timed midfield skip pass were pivotal events in the defeat to Wales, no one moment could explain the humiliation handed out to France by a resilient England a fortnight ago.

France have made it clear that Morgan Parra and Camille Lopez have not been dropped from the match-day 23 for criticism of their coaching, or lack thereof, but you’d have to wonder. In reality, France weren’t a million miles off against Wales but Jacques Brunel’s knee-jerk reaction to drop seven players and move Joann Huget to full-back backfired spectacularly.

Perhaps Brunel didn’t see Robbie Henshaw’s uncomfortable evening manning the back for Ireland – it genuinely wouldn’t be a surprise if he didn’t – but the decision to move Huget proved disastrous as England profited from Huget’s absence from the backfield to score four tries directly from kicks into open space.

Tomorrow, Thomas Ramos gets to join the party, making his test debut at full-back. There are high hopes that Ramos can fill the shoes of France and Toulouse legend, Clement Poitrenaud, and he will be joined by club mates Antoine Dupont – a world class scrum-half in the making – and Romain Ntamack. France may win tomorrow, in fact we’d be surprised if they didn’t as Scotland are an average side and Paris is always a difficult place to win. However, what’s more important is that they provide the three Toulouse youngsters with a concerted run in the team.

Brunel seems to be picking his teams from a hat at the moment and players must be either terrified or completely indifferent at the thought of losing their place on the team. While it’s too late to find the right coach for Japan 2019 – unless the players follow the self-taught manual which proved so successful in the 2011 Rugby World Cup – France have an opportunity to bed in some players who possess a raw skill set that other countries would kill for.

With Russell and Hogg in the saddle, you’d give Scotland a great chance but, as we said, the Paris effect shouldn’t be ignored and Dupont, an all action buzz saw of a scrum half, might just grab this game by the scruff of the neck.

SUS Prediction – France by 6

Tips – Handicap draw France -6 @ 22/1

Wales v England, 4:45 pm, 23^rd February 2019, Millennium Stadium

While history and fact fade further into irrelevance in political and general society, sports fans are always cognisant of the great achievements of the past. Even now, more than 40 years later, the Netherlands are revered for introducing the world to the concept of ‘Total Football’. Johann Cruyff, Johann Neeskens, Johnny Rep and the rest of that side – though no doubt tainted with a sheen of romanticism – are better remembered than the actual winners of the 1974 World Cup, where they brought the brain child of legendary Ajax manager, Jack Reynolds, to a global audience.

Perhaps in generations to come, rugby fans will look back and ask where were you that memorable evening in February 2019 when Eddie Jones’ England side revolutionised the game of rugby? Through myriad, complex techniques, England unearthed an astounding new weapon……. the kick into open space. Yes, as Owen Farrell and Henry Slade moved Robbie Henshaw around endlessly and effectively, we were witness to a development like none other.

Perhaps we’re being unfair, but the sense of amazement at England’s success against Ireland first and then a pathetic French team and its absentee full-back was a tad surprising. England have been brilliantly effective to be fair and it’s unusual that a back line would include such a slew of quality kickers. However, the fanfare over their prudent use of the boot – Ireland could take note – would not exist if not for the devastating effectiveness of the Vunipolas and a brilliant supporting cast of Jamie George and Tom Curry.

Billy Vunipola (l) has proved a revelation on his return to the English side and, despite, their free-scoring ways remain the most important player on their side.
. (Photo By David Fitzgerald/Sportsfile via Getty Images)

Like those before them, England exposed a narrow Irish defence, caught some breaks and dominated Ireland at the breakdown and in the tackle. Against France, England did as they pleased and if it wasn’t for the occasional shot of an exasperated Joann Huget, you’d have thought the fullback was in the sin bin, such was the space afforded to Farrell, Slade, Elliott Daly and rugby’s form winger, Tom May.

To England’s credit, they kick judiciously and not just up in the air – which can sometimes appear a little aimless when other teams adhere slavishly to this tactic – and they’ve puzzled opposing back threes so far. In Cardiff, however, they will face an orthodox full-back in Liam Williams and a fired up Welsh pack that will be, you would presume, better primed emotionally than Ireland were.

A visit of England always gets the home crowd worked up – apart, unusually, from the Irish crowd throughout much of the recent defeat to England – but the Welsh crowd bring a healthy air of vitriol to proceedings when their neighbours cross the Severn.

Eddie Jones has prodded away all week – in decades to come, Jones will be identified as the forefather of trolling – while a relatively serene, Warren Gatland continues to shift the focus from the Six Nations to the overarching importance of what is to come in Japan.

The first two rounds of the tournament do suggest that England are ahead of the pack and that Wales are genuinely focused on the World Cup. Having said that, this fixture, particularly when played in Cardiff takes on added significance for the Welsh.

The Welsh pack won’t want for intensity and Gareth Anscombe may provide the creative spark that Dan Biggar lacks, but it’s hard to look past a side led by two of the form players in the world in Billy Vunipola and Farrell.

England aren’t quite at the ‘immortality beckons’ stage just yet but win tomorrow and they’ll travelling east with a grand Slam under the belt.

SUS Prediction – England by 6

Tip – England half time/full time @ 11/10

Six Nations 2019

Scotland v Ireland: Preview

On the plus side, Ireland kept it to 12 points last weekend. On the negative, England with one exceptionally dominant performance have instilled themselves with the bullet-proof confidence typical of a country which rarely needs to be told to keep the chin up. And, while Ireland were dominated in every aspect of the game, if Japan if this year’s ultimate goal – and it is really – then it’s best we learn our lesson on a subdued Saturday evening in Dublin.

Paddy Power’s trite, opportunistic advertising campaign and the hubris of Irish supporters had little to do with England’s blistering start – that was down to Eddie Jones and his coaching staff’s meticulous preparation – but there is no question that the Irish team were out fought all over the field. Momentum as a concept may still be up for question but motivation certainly isn’t. While motorsports rely largely on the quality of their machines, rugby players are just humans at the end of the day.

Think of Ireland going to Twickenham for the World Cup coronation in 2008 and winning on the back of Girvan Dempsey’s brilliant team try. No one saw an Irish victory on the cards that day but buoyed by motivation, they shocked the champions on their home ground. The circumstances surrounding Saturday’s game were hardly identical, particularly as we still have to actually compete in the World Cup but it serves as timely reminder that this Irish team now has a massive target on its back.

There were a few suggestions that England got some breaks on Saturday but what winning team doesn’t? Generally if you’re making all the attacking plays then a bit of good fortune may go your way. Ireland’s one out running and predictable attempts to go wide were unlikely to create too many positive outcomes, particularly when England realised they could determine the offside line early on.

Thankfully, there has been less of the ‘told you so’ hindsight laden analysis that usually accompanies these results, more a resounding reminder that a fully stocked England are a serious force to be reckoned with and that the Farrell, Tuilagi and Slade midfield axis has endless potential. It will be interesting how England perform back home in front of a newly buoyant Twickenham. If a consecutive comprehensive or potentially, bonus-point victory follows, then we should be genuinely concerned. For now, however, England will be forgotten until a possible October meeting.

This afternoon in Murrayfield will provide a stern test of Ireland’s resilience and ability to bounce back. On Wednesday, Shane Horgan mentioned on Second Captains that if he knew the way to deliver a team to its emotional peak before each game, he would have done so. It sounds an obvious point but it’s also a very valid one. The reality is that each game provides different emotional motivations for teams and individuals and that your emotional pitch simply changes from game to game.

Last week, Ireland were the Grand Slam winning, World Champion vanquishing side whose focus was clearly on focusing on picking up where they left en route to Japan. England, unusually, were the underdog who endured the humiliation of watching the Irish team celebrate Grand Slam victory in Twickenham on a snowy St Patrick’s Day. Two weeks earlier, England had been in the frame for championship success. Due to the confluence of results on the final day, England plummeted to a worst ever fifth placed finish.

The scientific, methodical approach to the game has removed conversations of motivation and emotion despite the fact that these are just men and women at the end of the day, individuals who can be affected by a multitude of outside factors. Now, after one game, pundits and analysts have discussed the emotional, motivational edge England enjoyed as if this is some radical new development.

England came fully loaded, for a change in recent times, and with a side that could match Ireland’s – maybe Tuilagi makes the Irish team now – and any suggestion that we could grasp victory through reliance on our recent superiority was cruelly disproven. True, there were moments that swung the game but England’s victory on Saturday was as good as if not more impressive than Ireland’s last March.

Scotland, though coasting lazily at the end of the Italian game last week, will harbour no great fear of Ireland. They’ve won two of the last three in Murrayfield and Ireland will naturally be a little chastened from last week. However, consider the last Irish defeats and the circumstances surrounding each.

In 2013, with the ship listing badly under Declan Kidney, Ireland faltered with lack of composure at out half and the line out, and, a general lack of leadership. The result was hardly a bolt from the blue and Kidney’s reign as Irish coach ended ignominiously a month later.

In the most recent encounter in 2017, Ireland’s narrow defence – one of the few constant thorns in the side during Joe Schmidt’s tenure – was caught cold early and the general confusion was typified by Huw Jones soft score straight through a lazy Irish line out. It was the opening game of the tournament, Jonathan Sexton was missing and a potential-laden Scotland showed real signs of the offensive threat on offer.

Once more, however, Ireland versus Scotland in Murrayfield can be viewed through a very different prism. Given the successes of the last 18 months, Ireland were humbled last week and with Scotland flowing for an hour against Italy, they will be expected to back up their performance against the reigning champions. Ireland, though, are wounded, angry and no doubt feeling, amongst themselves, that they have a point to prove.

That in itself is not enough to win a Six Nations game and of course, technical superiority will largely win the day but it is generally remiss to disregard the emotional state of team. We all hear of the importance of sports psychologists in contemporary sport so it would naturally flow from this that mental preparation and state of mind are hugely important.

Joe Schmidt exudes calm though he may be slightly irked at suggestions that his side can only play from the front. These assertions come largely on the back of the fact that Ireland have never reversed a half time deficit in his term as head coach. On the face of it, this is a slightly disconcerting statistic but it also means that more often than not, Ireland take hold of games early. The structured nature of Ireland’s game – at least to the untrained eye – means that even a two score deficit will be hugely difficult to surmount. Until proven otherwise this Irish team simply can’t start slowly so expect a highly accurate, physical burst out the gate and an attempt to reassert the physical dominance that has been a trademark of the last year.

Ireland are down some quality players – though it is brilliant to see the return of Chris Farrell – but so too are Scotland. And, it is the depletion of the Scottish front row and inferior quality there in the first place that may tip the scales in Ireland’s favour. Do not expect to see Tadhg Furlong getting manhandled two Saturdays in a row.

There is also no point in avoiding the fact that Rory Best’s position is under pressure. Seán Cronin has played outstanding rugby for Leinster for the last three months and though Best is a brilliant leader and tireless worker, we are constantly reminded that this is a team full of leaders. A dominant display in the set pieces today – minus Devin Toner – would likely solidify Best’s place in the starting 15 for the coming weeks though Cronin must be extremely close.

Best and by extension of the fact that Ireland will kick endlessly, Conor Murray, will not be helped by the swirling winds so you’d expect ball retention by the teams facing into the wind. If Ireland defend high again, then you can expect Scotland to kick in behind when aided by the wind. It’s at this point that we’ll discover how timely Rob Kearney’s return to full back has been.

Ireland don’t want a cavalier, shoot out as they’re quite simply not engineered for it so expect a low scoring grind. Quieten down what Jim Telfer referred to as the Murrayfield ‘theatre goers’ – not unlike a vast portion of the Irish crowd last weekend – and Ireland should be able to wrest control of the contest. The circumstances surrounding this game suggest a perfect opportunity for Murray and Sexton to reaffirm their brilliance. Don’t worry about learnings or work-ons today, the only thing that matters is the result. Ireland by a whisker.

SUS Prediction – Ireland by 4

Tips

Under 43.5 points @10/11
2. Conor Murray anytime try scorer @ 9/4

Rugby, Rugby Union, Six Nations, Six Nations 2019

Six Nations 2019 – Preview: Ireland v England

While developing the principles of modern physics, Isaac Newton hardly considered that sports writers and fans would still be arguing over the validity of momentum more than 300 years later. Yet, still some people dismiss sports writing as fluff.

In 2012, Grantland’s Bill Barnwell valiantly attempted to dismiss the relevance of momentum in sport but we’re firmly of the belief that this abstract concept does exist. Just look at the New England Patriots unprecedented comeback in Superbowl 51, the English rugby team’s extraordinary 2003 en route to World Cup success or the incredible roll that Irish superstar, Becky Lynch, is currently on in the WWE where she’s set to become the first woman to ever headline Wrestlemania next month. Incidentally, Lynch’s extraordinary rise is such a male dominated industry is a huge story in itself and no doubt someone will latch on to it next month.

Momentum does exist in sport, though, rather than in Newtonian terms, it comes about as a result of the accumulation of ideal conditions at an opportune time. What can be said with near certainty – while talking about a tenuous idea – is that momentum and confidence are inseparable. Joe Schmidt’s Irish side have won 17 of their last 18 tests – the only defeat coming with Jonathan Sexton starting on the bench – and having beaten all the top tier nations since 2017, there is a quiet but absolute confidence about this side. Confidence without end product is merely arrogance but Ireland have continued to walk the walk while the Irish media increasingly talks the talk.

However, two schools of thought existed as the 2019 Six Nations approached. The first is that success this spring isn’t all that important as Joe Schmidt will really be looking to try out as many combinations as possible so that all 31 players will be ready to step in at a moment’s notice in Japan, if necessary. The alternative states that the Irish international team has never been on such a role and that momentum is lost far more quickly than it’s garnered.

We’re inclined to side with the latter approach as you can deduce that Joe Schmidt has spent the last four years preparing for a nightmare scenario that faced his side in Cardiff in October 2015 when one third of his starting side was lost to injury and suspension. Schmidt has analysed every professional player in Ireland at this stage and seen fit to hand out close to 40 new caps since that defeat to Argentina.

The Six Nations is the annual centre piece of rugby in this part of the world and it would be remiss to suggest that it could be treated like a warm up competition – akin to the National Hurling and Football leagues – as that’s what November and the summer are for. Certainly, given the rigours of the tournament and the scheduling the squad will rotate, most likely in Rome, but Ireland and moreover the Irish public can’t overlook the importance of maintaining the aura around this side.

While it may appear that this Irish side has crescendoed a year earlier that England in 2003, the latter’s success was surely not by design as they had developed a unique formula for tripping on their own laces at the final hurdle in three previous quests for a Grand Slam. Prior to their World Cup victory, England came out the right side of some incredible contests in 2002/2003 – their extraordinary defensive effort in Dunedin and destruction of Ireland in the Grand Slam decider come to mind.

You would imagine that Ireland want to face into the summer with another tournament victory, or Grand Slam, under their belt, at the expense of fielding their back up half-backs in Cardiff on the final weekend. In any event given the level of attrition – witness Ireland’s incredibly deep second row options getting culled in the space of four hours – Schmidt will have handed out opportunities across the board by the time St Patrick’s Day arrives.

Having said all this, it would be remiss to suggest that Robbie Henshaw’s selection at 15 hasn’t come somewhat from left field. After Rob Kearney’s shaky performance last Friday night it doesn’t come as a huge surprise that Schmidt is exploring his alternatives and with Bundee Aki consistently excellent throughout the last 12 months, it’s clear he’s choosing the route of getting your best players on the field. While Henshaw came to the fore as a full back and it’s widely reported as his favourite position, Will Addison and, particularly, Jordan Larmour may be a little miffed but it’d take a fool to question Schmidt’s decision making at this stage.

While France did the biggest France possible last night in Paris there is no question that the tie of the round takes place on Lansdowne Road this evening. Perhaps it’s just a sign of the clickbait times we live in but the Irish media has spent the last week or so deriding Eddie Jones for his devious attempts to manipulate the media while themselves coming across as arrogant and somewhat dismissive of the English threat. Sadly, the arbitrary ‘how many of their players would make our team’ discussion seems to have already decided the game in Ireland’s favour.

Had the English taken this approach in years gone by – no doubt they did – we’d be pretty worked up by it but it’s probably unfair to assume that public opinion is accurately reflected by what’s printed or spoken about online. And, given the challenge approaching in the autumn, it may just be that this Irish squad will have to accept the intense scrutiny usually reserved for soccer teams.

Brave little England start this tournament imbued a fair amount of quiet confidence, largely due to the form and fitness of Maro Itoje and the Vunipola brothers, and, the return of Manu Tuilagi. England’s midfield axis is enthralling on paper but Henry Slade hasn’t delivered yet for England – largely due to lack of opportunity – and Tuilagi’s halcyon days in an English jersey came more than five years ago. This is not to say that they can’t or won’t click but opposite them the triumvirate of Sexton, Bundee Aki and Gary Ringrose is developing into a complementary unit and you’d expect the home side to have the advantage in this regard.

With the obvious caveat that all teams are affected by injuries, Sam Underhill’s absence is massive for England as they simply do not enjoy the depth in back rows currently enjoyed by the defending champions. Josh Van Der Flier – in many ways the most underappreciated back row in the Irish squad – was exceptional against New Zealand and with a big performance tomorrow, can lay claim for now to the most keenly contested jersey in Irish rugby. Van der Flier plays most closely in style to the traditional open side but against New Zealand he also carried brilliantly, a facet of his game which many see as paling in comparison to Dan Leavy and Sean O’ Brien.

Which naturally brings us to O’ Brien, potentially the most devastating forward replacement Ireland have ever been in a position to call on. If things are going awry tomorrow, or not, O’ Brien’s entry around the hour mark will be a huge boost not just for the team but all in attendance in the stadium. In tandem with Jordan Larmour – currently top of the queue for the number 23 jersey – though in an entirely different manner, O’ Brien may well provide the game breaking ability to put England away in the final quarter.

With the ‘boring’ boot work of Conor Murray being called into question this week, the irony is that in the opening minutes all eyes will be on the accuracy of the kicking of Ben Youngs and Owen Farrell and the fielding ability of Robbie Henshaw who, though a settled veteran in the side, now finds himself in the spotlight ordinarily reserved for debutants.

Ireland’s successful November fed into an excellent few months for the provinces while the English sides, with the exceptions of Saracens and Saracens, largely floundered. Whether this actually means anything won’t be revealed until mid-March but recent history suggests that the success of Leinster and Munster has been inextricably linked with subsequent success for Ireland. But then, Saracens and Exeter provide a large chunk of the English team and the club malaise may reflect more of the difficult relationship between the RFU and English club owners.

Ireland, quite incredibly from our perspective, start as nine point favourites. The have won the last two encounters with England by nine and ten points, respectively, and odds makers are borderline savants but the line seems a little high.

In a quaint role-reversal expect the visitors to bring all the noise early on but the steadying hands of Murray and Sexton, and, the firepower on Ireland’s bench should see the home side prevail.

S.U.S. Prediction: Ireland by 6

Tips: Handicap draw (England +6) @ 16/1

England half time/Ireland full time @ 6/1

#Boxing, Boxing, Tyson Fury

Fury v Wilder: A Turning Point?

Heavyweight boxing rises from the canvas

From the 1920s to the 1990s, boxing’s heavyweight division was to the forefront of not just sports but popular culture, particularly in America.

The list of great heavyweights includes men who were giants of popular culture in their era: Jack Dempsey, Joe Louis, Rocky Marciano, Muhammad Ali, Mike Tyson, Evander Holyfield and Lennox Lewis – all names that have carved their way into sporting lore. For decades, the heavyweight champion of the world was the most famous sportsperson on the planet.

Even when avarice ensued in the 1980s and new governing bodies – WBO, IBF, WBC – were established, the best heavyweight enjoyed the adulation of the masses. However, towards the end of the last century, a number of events occurred, leading to the gradual demise of the heavyweight division.

Mike Tyson’s thrilling, sometimes depraved, journey lurched towards a sickening halt in the late 1990s and Evander Holyfield retired shortly thereafter. With Lennox Lewis’ outstanding career nearing its finale, heavyweight boxing came to be dominated by a pair of robotic behemoths from Ukraine who offered none of the flair or fanfare of their immediate predecessors.

Those men were the Klitschkos – Vitali and Wladimir – and they enjoyed a decade of dominance built on monumental physiques and relentless, metronomic left jabs. Their styles had little aesthetic appeal and they failed to engage with an American audience who still harboured historic bias towards Eastern Europe.

Though Oscar de la Hoya, Floyd Mayweather and Roy Jones Jr were wowing boxing fans a few weight divisions down, the heavyweight division was always relied on to attract the casual fan. And, with a paucity of quality big men, the division descended into relative obscurity.

In all sports, the idiom states that a good big man will beat a good small man. Well, in boxing, the most enthralling sight is two huge men colliding in an eighteen by eighteen feet ring with just a 10 ounce glove for protection. Last Sunday morning, Tyson Fury,took on WBA heavyweight champion of the world, Deontay Wilder, in the Staples Centre, Los Angeles – two men attempting to win back the attention of a once rapt American audience.

The boxing community in America, together with promoters and network executives, were aware that a dull contest would represent a missed and potentially final opportunity to seize the attention of today’s demanding, impatient television audience. Remarkably – as nostalgia tends to mask the sheer number of dull heavyweight clashes – Wilder and Fury were involved in a wild contest that escalated in the final four rounds. The climax of the saw bout saw Fury rise – Undertaker-like- from the canvas in the 12^th round after a devastating combination from Wilder looked to have ended the contest.

https://www.sho.com/video/65123/wilder-knocks-down-fury-in-round-12

Indeed, with the exception of Larry Holmes in 1978 against Ernie Shavers, it’s unlikely that anyone has ever beaten the referee’s count after absorbing what Fury did. Wilder’s face showed both bemusement and grudging respect and though a contentious split draw decision followed minutes later, those in attendance or watching at home knew they had just witnessed something special.

The events in Los Angeles would have been keenly observed by Anthony Joshua – WBC, WBO and IBF champion of the world – and his team, led by silver-tongued promoter, Eddie Hearn. Since winning Olympic Gold in London 2012, Joshua has gone on to become the golden boy of British sport. His charisma, power and extraordinary physique have made him extremely popular with the British public and he is an advertiser’s dream. Joshua enjoyed a narrow escape from a drug conviction in 2011, when a judge told him, ‘prison–or boxing’. Joshua took his chance and hasn’t looked back.

Hearn’s Matchroom Promotions built Joshua up as the novice destroyed all comers. While Joshua’s hype machine gathered momentum, Fury – always a divisive character –went to Dusseldorf in 2015 and defeated Wladimir Klitschko, in the process becoming the lineal heavyweight champion of the world.

However, before their rematch could take place, Fury was banned and ultimately spiralled into a deep hole of alcohol and drug abuse, very nearly taking his life in the process. The British Board of Boxing Control (BBBC) was left with little option but to ban Fury after he admitted to prolonged cocaine abuse.

With Fury suspended, Joshua defeated a Klitschko in decline and became the world’s pre-eminent heavyweight. But, champions are only as good as their rivals. Tyson had Holyfield, while Ali, Foreman, Liston and Frazier all engaged in enthralling contests in the 1960s and 1970s. New Zealand’s Joseph Parker – since proven to be an average fighter- held the WBO title, while the Alabaman, Deontay Wilder, was relying on an ungainly but hammer like right hand to lead him to an undefeated record and possession of the WBA championship.

Joshua v Klitschko was a brilliantly even fight, not a fight between two brilliant boxers.

The problem,though, was the glaring absence of Fury from the heavyweight scene. Joshua is an immense talent but when people like Eddie Hearn unearth a man both as talented and marketable as Joshua, there is a hesitancy to put him in a ring with a man as unorthodox and dangerous as Wilder. Sportswear companies, watch manufacturers and airlines don’t respond well when the face of their billboard campaigns has been sparked in front of millions of viewers.

If there is a paucity of quality challengers – as was case when the Klitschkos ruled – then promoters can largely do as they please but audiences are wise and predictable fights will not do big office numbers. With Fury absent though, and offering little beyond pithy soundbites, Hearn knew it was his prerogative to mine Anthony Joshua’s cross-generational appeal and make some real money. Admittedly, that is the very essence of professional boxing.

Boxing enjoys a most unusual place in society, offering somewhat of a social dilemma:why do peaceful people enjoy the brutal nature of a boxing match? Perhaps it’s the drama of the event, the contradictory appeal of the glamour and raw brutality, or, perhaps we’re not as peaceful and reasonable as we believe.

This week the grim reality of the fight game came to bear when it was confirmed that former light heavyweight champion of the world, Adonis Stevenson, had been placed in a medically induced coma and may have lasting brain injuries. His injuries came in defeat to Oleksandr Gvozdyk in Quebec City on the same night that heavyweight boxing was rejuvenated. The contrast is jarring. The risks are so real and so obvious and history is littered with hundreds of cautionary tales of men and women who were devoured by the boxing industry. Yet, mystifyingly the show goes on and those who should know better lap it up.

Still, while boxing cares little for its casualties, the return of the fallen great has been mythologised since the 1920s. Thus it was, earlier this year, and after negotiations with the BBBC, Tyson Fury was allowed to return to the ring, with his two-year suspension backdated to 2016. Two barely passable tune-ups followed before Fury and Wilder’s respective management teams were able to agree to last weekend’s contest.

When the fight was made, Team Joshua – none of whom lack for hubris – saw Wilder and Fury as inferior, the ‘B side’ in any future negotiations. Then, Wilder and Fury engaged in the remarkable contest last weekend and now the division is alive with opportunity once more. Unlike Joshua and Klitschko, this was actually a contest between two men in their prime. Joshua is still the main draw but as in bygone days, the pinnacle of the heavyweight division is now populated by a number of extremely talented yet markedly different men.

Whatever the case, events in California have changed the dynamic entirely. How else could Deontay Wilder have ended sitting on a couch beside the mystifying, James Corden? Until Saturday, Joshua and Hearn perhaps rightly thought that Fury and Wilder needed them. Now, however, their rematch will fill Wembley Stadium or a Las Vegas casino and the box office purchases will be like the 90s heydays.

Some people will scratch their heads and struggle to fathom the brutality of boxing but last Saturday’s fight has renewed America’s love for the storied heavyweight division. For the oddly sentimental fans of boxing and the power brokers alike, the bigs are back and all is well in the world once more.

Ireland v New Zealand, Irish Rugby, November Internationals 2018, Rugby, Rugby Union

Here Comes the Boom: Ireland v New Zealand – Preview

After Irish journalists and ‘rugby’ people took turns hopping off Bundee Aki and CJ Stander in the last couple of years, it seems the Kiwis are miffed at the fact that European sides – particularly England and Ireland – are displaying the temerity to pick the players New Zealand don’t want. We’re largely unmoved by the rule either way. International rugby is a pretty closed shop – you’d be pushed to name ten top-tier international sides- so if a rule exists to allow players experience international rugby, so be it. To assist the slightly myopic aspect of our argument, it’s worth noting that Ireland have, thus far, taken advantage of the residency rule by moving for players who had been overlooked in their own countries.

If Brad Shields last week and now, Aki, this week are to be at the core of Kiwi whining then why not look to the age-old hypocrisy stemming from New Zealand when it comes to international selection policies. The “All Blacks continue to cynically and systematically loot the Pacific Islands of their best players. It’s an old and depressing story and nobody in New Zealand has been able to give a convincing defence of their actions.”

These are not in fact the words of our learned Minister for Sport, Shane Ross, but an article written by Brendan Gallagher which appeared in the Daily Telegraph during the grim Lions tour to New Zealand in 2005. There is the caveat that British and Irish folk were becoming dispirited and bitter after being beaten and humbled from the deep south up to Auckland and everywhere in between.

Nevertheless, Gallagher argued that New Zealand have long been happy to lure the best talent of Fiji, Samoa and Tonga to their rugby nurseries and ultimately give them an opportunity to don the most famous jersey in world rugby. During that summer, we were lucky enough to witness Sitiveni Sivivatu, , born and bred in Fiji, give one of the most dominant wing performances ever, dominating an all-time great in Shane Williams and helping New Zealand decimate the Lions in Wellington. Yet even when joking, it stung any Kiwis when you accused them of poaching the best players their neighbours had to offer.

Sitiveni Sivivatu from Fiji’s Yasawa Islands is regarded as one of the best wingers to ever wear the New Zealand jersey. (photo Getty Images)

The bare facts don’t lie, though. It suits New Zealand and Australia for the Fijians, Samoans and Tongans to produce incomparable raw talent without ever possessing the financial strength to keep their players from moving to the richer pastures of Auckland and Sydney. With the three island nations so close in proximity to the Antipodes, surely it would behove the traditional powerhouses to foster the well-being of the international game. Perhaps when it comes to the notion of teams naturalising or poaching players, are teams are equal but some are more equal than others.

In any event, if Ireland are going to prevail on Saturday night in what promises to be an all-time atmosphere, Aki and, particularly, Stander need to excel. Aki has grown into his role as the anchor of the Irish midfield and while he does not possess the wide passing skills of some of his counterparts, he has the ability to beat the first tackle, brings the rare attribute to the Irish midfield of a potential offload and displays unwavering enthusiasm in all facets of his game.

New Zealand can lay claim, whether they like it or not, to changing the rules of the game the last time they visited Dublin. Malakai Fekitoa and Sam Kane in particular got away with some high stuff but amidst the furore over the high shots, Kieran Read managed to avoid one of the most blatant yellow card/penalty try combos in rugby history.

Stander was one of the players on the receiving end of Kane’s indiscipline with his night ending earlier than anticipated. Given his recent lull in form, he really needs a big performance against the best team and number eight, respectively, in world rugby. Stander has been exceptionally consistent since the 2015/2016 season, when he seemed to take ownership of the man of the match award in any Muster game, but he has failed to ignite thus far this season. That statement is made in light of the fact that he is still among the top tacklers and carriers in every game but the thrust of his ball carrying has been blunted.

Sean O’Brien’s absence means that Stander now, more than ever, must dominate the contact area and give Ireland go forward ball. He made two of the most important plays in Chicago, a powerful burrow through three would be New Zealand tacklers for Ireland’s second try and a subtle check of Owen Franks in the built up to Conor Murray’s now iconic score. Ireland won’t necessarily require Stander to put his name on the score sheet but in tandem with Peter O’ Mahony and Dan Leavy he can at least gain parity against a Kiwi trio that doesn’t quite hold up to the exceptional back-rows of New Zealand past.

Joe Schmidt thankfully put the great Conor Murray debate to bed on Monday but it’s difficult to ignore just how important the Limerick man was to victory to Ireland in Soldier Field. Admittedly, he got skinned early doors by Beauden Barrett two weeks later but Murray’s decisiveness in attack and defence was probably the difference in the Second City. This is the deepest squad in Irish history but every dominant team – think Brazil 1958-1970 with Pele or Barcelona with Messi – has its MVP and Murray is that for this Irish team. No one is crying for Ireland’s injury issues, obviously, but it would be in many ways their greatest ever achievement if they could overcome the World Champions without their most important player.

Having said all that, New Zealand come to Dublin on the back of a pretty patchy run of form by their standards. Their patented late game heroics saw them scrape home in South Africa and a frankly unfair, or at least inconsistent, call against Courtney Lawes last week likely spared their blushes in Twickenham. The team is still stacked to the brim with quality but when you look at the dream team that won the last World Cup – they too only scraped by South Africa – this looks like a good but not great iteration of New Zealand.

As has been pointed out this week, New Zealand’s line out was immense for the last hour in Twickenham and Ireland’s was about as bad as anyone can remember for a number of years with Argentina always competitive on Rory Best’s throws. Brodie Retallick confirmed last week that he still sets the bar when it comes to second row forwards. The intro to Ghostface Killah’s ‘The Champ’ – “He’s a bulldozer with a wrecking ball attached, he’ll leave a ring around your eyes and thread marks on your back ….” – aptly describes the Kiwi lock’s destructive abilities and he is probably the most complete forward in world rugby. Ireland simply have to improve to compete and Devin Toner’s selection sees a return to fundamentals. Parity in the lineout will be a victory for Ireland.

There is just the slightest feeling that New Zealand were complacent going to the junket in Soldier Field and that Ireland caught them unawares. They would have been satisfied two weeks later when a show of equal parts brilliance and brutality restored the normal order. However, just nine months later the core of that Irish team played a vital role in earning the Lions a draw in New Zealand and proving for the first time to this New Zealand team that there’s more to the Northern Hemisphere than Sky Sports embarrassingly hyperbolic pre-match coverage. It feels as if Joe Schmidt’s side want to use Saturday night to show that this team is here to stay as a threat to New Zealand and that all has changed utterly.

Gerry Thornley rightly pointed out earlier this week that this encounter should be enjoyed as a standalone contest and thoughts of the World Cup should be eschewed for the night. And, while this is a fair point everyone will remember England’s statement victories over Australia and New Zealand in 2002 en-route to their victory in Australia the following year. Ireland have already ticked the box of a series victory south of the equator so imagine the impact a victory over the double world champions would have a mere ten months out from the World Cup in Japan. Particularly when you consider that if everything goes according to plan, the sides will be meeting again on an autumn night in Tokyo.

New Zealand will try to step on Ireland’s throat early and silence what will be a rarely animated home crowd so Ireland need to be prepared for brutality in the opening exchanges. More importantly the home team need to solidify the set piece as if they get on the wrong side of Wayne Barnes, Jonathan Sexton and Peter O’ Mahony will become crankier than usual.

It’s hard to remember an Irish rugby match being so hyped. These occasions rarely deliver on expectations, though, and the feeling is that New Zealand will shade this contest by the width of an offside line.

S.U.S. Prediction – New Zealand by 3

Tips

Ireland +6 @ 10/11
Ireland half time/New Zealand full time @ 6/1

straight up sport

No analytics or outrage, just sport from a fan's viewpoint.

Author Archives: Bill Lonergan

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Fury v Wilder: A Turning Point?

Here Comes the Boom: Ireland v New Zealand – Preview

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