Ireland Hopefully Cooked to Perfection

With the potential crisis averted last weekend, Ireland head to Cardiff in a historically favourable position – angry and with a point to prove. In the immediate aftermath of Sunday’s game, it was hard to escape the feeling that Ireland had, probably subliminally, gone into the Italian job with one eye inescapably on France seven days later. Obviously we here it on rote these days that the players are professionals, that they don’t listen to outside noise and take each game as it comes. All the available empirical evidence would suggest otherwise. Did South Africa approach Japan as they would have the All Blacks? Certainly not. To a far lesser extent Ireland appear to have entered last Sunday’s game with their focus and intensity askew. And at this level as we’re repeatedly told, you only need to be one percent off your game to be exposed.

From the off it seemed that the Italians were quite simply better prepared for a battle, ably facilitated by Ireland’s soft defensive line. Now, as far we understand, the intention here is to guide the attacking side laterally ultimately using the touchline as an extra defender. How in the world though does this justify giving the Italians twenty-five easy metres off a scrum, simply by shifting the ball wide? The line speed improved in the second half but dipped once more, particularly when Josh Furno’s try scoring opportunity was created. Ireland were listless at ruck time –not helped by the otherwise excellent Peter O’ Mahony’s yellow card for a rash, arm-free charge at the ruck- and quick ball was at a premium, save for when Iain Henderson carried.

When the ball was there, receivers took it deep from a standing position and were invariably stopped behind the gain line. The early connect between Robbie Henshaw and Keith Earls was truly promising but after the game’s only try, numbers eleven to fifteen were rarely required to focus on much more than their kick chase skills. With David Kearney and Tommy Bowe ostensibly taking part in an audition for one wing spot, both must have been truly disappointed at the paucity of attacking opportunities that came their way. Similarly, the uncomfortable looking Simon Zebo. There is no pint in engaging the Corkman to mimic Rob Kearney, not when their skill sets are so vastly different.

Watching Sunday’s game one couldn’t help but draw comparisons to the 2013 hammering by Australia which officially ushered in the Joe Schmidt era. That day the defensive line fell off while there was little or no direction in a completely anaemic attack. The following Sunday felt like a trip to the gallows with a peerless All Black side set to finish off their unbeaten year with a comfortable victory in Dublin. Of course, we all know how events unfolded. From minute one that day, the home side tore into their far more illustrious opponents, playing with heretofore unseen intensity levels for an Irish side, bringing the defensive line up quickly and carrying with support runners straight through the heart of the ruck. Simple rugby carried out with incredible accuracy and efficiency. And this is what Ireland must aim for again next Sunday in Cardiff.

As insipid as last week’s performance was, Ireland still took four points from the encounter with no injuries reported. Irish teams invariably respond more favourably when they are cast in the role of underdog, or at the very least when they are not overwhelming favourites against a competent team. To be quite blunt about it, sometimes a kick in the arse beats a pat on the back.

Joe Schmidt has already indicated that perhaps the most frustrating aspect of the performance was the concession of ten penalties –Peter O’ Mahony, though superb, was pretty much namechecked by his coach in this regard- and despite the widely held theory about holding back our hand, teams don’t intentionally display bad discipline as a ruse. This is the first area that needs to be rectified for Sunday. Beyond this, of course, we move to the great unknown, the magic tricks which Schmidt and his coaching team have been concocting since the squad first gathered during the summer.

We’ve possibly beaten all our poker analogies to death at this stage so suffice to say, Cardiff will be the stage where Ireland’s backline makes its big reveal. Our half-backs, amongst the best pairing in the world, need to perform this week as we know they can. There was something disconcerting about watching Jamie Heaslip feed Conor Murray off an attacking scrum, whereupon Murray grubber kicked straight to touch. None of the other eight potential quarter-finalists would have attacked off first phase in this manner –to their credit Ireland did a job on the Italian lineout but it’s a pretty limited mode of attack- so again let’s presume that this is all part of a giant Kayser Soze-like deceit.

Of course, what everybody wants to see more than anything is a backline with the potential to unlock their opponent’s defence, by trickery or otherwise. Under Philippe Saint-Andre, France may have lost their attacking verve but they have developed an extremely aggressive in your face defensive wall that simply will not be unlocked by a series of predictable wraparounds. However, in Joe Schmidt’s tenure Ireland have become extremely clinical, so just a handful of line breaks will be sufficient to set up decent attacking platforms. We suspect that February’s game against the French in Dublin provided a pretty accurate blueprint of what we’ll see in Cardiff: direct carries in midfield, trench warfare on the ground and aerial bombardment.

Up to this point, possibly due to our shamefully presumptive nature, we have focused solely on Ireland –Sergio Parisse aside- prior to each group match. This time, however, it would be remiss of us to ignore the challenges that France will bring. On current form, the French have by far and away the most effective ball-carrier in either pack, in Louis Picamoles. The number eight simply cannot be allowed boss the collisions as Parisse was, and if gets into open field he can be as destructive as any of the French backs. The Toulouse is assisted by the no-frills Bernard le Roux* and their redoubtable captain, Thierry Dusautoir. Without a shadow of a doubt, this unit will provide Ireland with their greatest challenge since Wales in Cardiff last March.

Sean O’ Brien is Ireland’s obvious wrecking ball yet it is the perceived dirt merchant in the back row, Peter O’ Mahony, who has actually been our most effective carrier within the unit. Once more the question arises as to whether we are picking the right back row combination? It seems highly implausible that either O’ Brien or Jamie Heaslip will be dropped -though Sunday requires a marked improvement in performance from both- so if a change is to take place it would be likely be the heretofore highly impressive –both in open play and in a highly functioning lineout- O’ Mahony dropping out. And yet…..

Ireland need big performances from Jamie Heaslip (centre) and Sean O’ Brien (right) on Sunday evening.

O’ Brien has grown into the role of poacher but one wonders if this has nullified his carrying threat? Where are the barnstorming runs last seen as recently as March in Murrayfield? Would a move to number eight at Heaslip’s expense or six at O’ Mahony’s with Chris Henry – Ireland’s best ground operator in the contested areas- coming in at open-side in each case be logical moves? These are options that we have touched on before and even if we don’t believe that immediate change is necessary, there is merit in considering these alternatives. If O’ Mahony, Heaslip and O’ Brien can fulfil their respective roles of disruption, control and destruction then Ireland will assuredly have the upper hand. If, though, as the game unfurls the French are preventing a flow of quick ball in Conor Murray’s direction then Henry must be introduced. Our best back row is still the unit that started last Sunday but the situation remains fluid.

One recurring, slimmed down though still sizable, problem that Ireland must face is the potential match-winner Mathieu Bastareaud. The Toulon centre has always caused trouble for Ireland, whether with the now retired Gordon D’Arcy and Brian O’ Driscoll or one of Bastareaud’s current targets, Johnny Sexton. That last statement is probably a little disingenuous as the destructive Bastareaud’s remit is to damage the body and weaken the mind of all out halves, not just Sexton. If he gains momentum and crosses the gain line , Bastareaud has the Ma’a Nonu like ability to free his hands and facilitate the French second wave.

Ireland need to nullify the line-breaking ,off-loading threat of Mathieu Bastareaud.

The rule for Bastareaud –not dissimilar to the one employed so  successfully by Wales four years ago to foil O’ Brien and Stephen Ferris- will be to hit him as early as possible, ideally behind the gain line. The position in which the big midfielder gets the ball is intrinsically linked to the quality of the ball laid at the feet of Morgan Parra. Slow ball allows the Irish line to shoot up quickly, hopefully foregoing the passive approach seen at the Olympic Stadium. Also, as Gordon D’Arcy pointed out this week, Robbie Henshaw is a pretty big unit, well capable of halting Bastareaud on and not over the gain-line. Nonetheless, the best one can hope for with Bastareaud is containment as he is quite simply too big to overpower or dominate.

Which leads us to maligned, then popular, then oddly maligned once more and now seemingly due to his absence, popular again, Jared Payne. Who knew kicking the ball three times in a tournament could get you on the wrong side of that old sage, Matt Williams? Payne will bring renewed stability to the Irish midfield while guaranteeing crucially important go-forward ball and largely underappreciated distribution skills. Payne and Henshaw had developed a decent understanding by the end of the Six Nations but further growth has been stymied by the unavoidable intervention of injury. Now, as a friend pointed out to us recently, the World Cup is not being played exclusively by centres but the outcome of this game within a game on Sunday will prove absolutely crucial.

The biggest questions will be asked of Ireland when the benches empty around the hour mark. Cast your mind back eight months and you will recall the breathless finale as Ireland desperately repelled wave after wave of French attacks, the latter supplanted by twenty stone monsters off the bench. We have a feeling that this is precisely how Sunday’s encounter will finish, a frantic endgame with the sides camped in the Irish twenty-two.

Sunday is not do-or-die. To say otherwise would be plainly hyperbolic as both sides will get at least one more bite of the cherry. What it is though, particularly for Ireland, is an opportunity to enhance their credentials as genuine World Cup contenders. Interestingly no side has ever won the tournament after suffering a group defeat and it would be preferable if Ireland didn’t have to buck this trend.

Ireland arrive in Cardiff more or less exactly as we expected, predicated of course on the fact that we have thus far only had a glimpse at the full armoury. France, wired as they are –uniquely- simply know how to step it up in World Cups. That statement would sound lazy if it wasn’t so patently incontrovertible. It will come down to fine margins and we’re inclined to back a hopefully even angrier than usual Johnny Sexton over the admittedly resurgent, though still flaky, Freddie Michalak.

Two roads diverge in Cardiff on Sunday. It would be preferable if the one through New Zealand was the road not taken. Ireland by a whisker.

*Damien Chouly has been selected at blindside flanker ahead of Bernard le Roux.

Prediction: Ireland by 2 (Ireland -2 generally)

S.U.S. Tips: (i)  Handicap draw 22/1

(ii) Draw 16/1

Payne once more the butt of unjustifiable criticism

The chaos and carnage in Twickenham on Saturday night was unquestionably the high point of week two in this simmering World Cup. The compelling and mystifying –because frankly how in the world did Wales win- contest provided exactly what we all expected with the already battle-scarred Welsh forced to reach deeper than most thought possible. Gutsy and intensely composed as the Welsh were in the final quarter, England have massive questions to ask of their leaders, both on and off the field. As many had noted beforehand England’s team selection suggested a desire to stifle their opposition rather than playing to their own strengths. Wales are bloodied and will need incredible resilience to turn around for Thursday’s encounter with Fiji but Gatland, like him or not, has engendered an incredible sense of desire and character within his Welsh squad.

The idea abounds in this professional era that players are no longer driven by passion but by a natural professional drive to win. Gatland has long been criticised for his over-reliance on feeding his players emotions but this weekend he worked his players into a perfect frenzy. With bodies strewn across the pitch and an almost unbelievably patchwork backline out there, Wales’ character and passion were to the fore. The danger with this approach, of course, is that players can’t simply be expected to call on these deep resources of emotion each time they require a herculean effort. Nonetheless, when the situation required it last Saturday evening, a logically inferior Welsh side were able to out battle their more vaunted hosts.

Ireland -remarkably in front of a world record attendance for a Rugby World Cup- easily and expectedly downed a limited Romanian side with the back three, in particular giving Joe Schmidt serious food for thought. With Rob Kearney in doubt for next weekend, this same back three may well be asked to take the field again although at this point it’s a coin toss between Tommy Bowe and David Kearney for the right wing slot. The most intriguing aspect of Ireland’s performance has been the criticism aimed in the direction of Jared Payne. The converted full-back has obviously been under intense scrutiny since replacing Brian O’ Driscoll in midfield, a truly unenviable task no matter who you are. Payne, though, appeared to have ridden out the storm, most recently receiving the endorsements of none other than O’ Driscoll and his midfield partner of many years, Gordon D’Arcy, both of whom acknowledged Payne’s outstanding defence and distribution skills.

On Sunday evening, however, (Irishman?) Matt Williams lamented Payne’s complete lack of form, suggesting Darren Cave would be a suitable replacement in midfield. Worse still the rest of the panel were inclined to agree with him. Now with all due respect to Cave, who is a fine player, his best moments against Romania came in the second half, against a team not exactly renowned for their strengths in midfield. Payne was by no means outstanding on Sunday and his kicking is pretty abysmal judged against any standards. But, given that his kicking game needs to improve, he was right to experiment during those games in which Ireland have virtually no chance of losing.

Look back to the defeat in Twickenham last month and you will recall that Payne was the outstanding back on the Irish team. Frankly we’d side with the guy who steps it up against the better sides, notwithstanding the fact that his performances in recent weeks haven’t really been all that bad. Jared Payne is the best available distributor and defender at outside centre at this moment in time. Darren Cave and Keith Earls though able replacements are not superior second centres to Payne. Robbie Henshaw may ultimately be the man who to naturally fill this position, indeed one hopes so, but right now we are only concerned with the next five weeks.

One can’t help but wonder if there is an underlying antipathy allied with an increased level of expectation towards Payne based solely on the fact that he is a naturalised player. For years, we have looked down our noses at the All Blacks, Australia and more recently England for their recruitment of perceived rugby mercenaries. These players, wherever their place of birth, and their adopted nations are simply taking advantage of an IRB rule. Their performances should not be held to a higher standard and nor should they be subjected to the South Park treatment.

Jared Payne’s performances continue to be questioned by the media.

In any event, the negative talk about Payne has been widely disregarded by those in the know –Darcy and O’ Driscoll- and earlier in the week those who matter. Tommy Bowe, in an interview with The Irish Times indicated that Payne clearly has the backing of his peers while indirectly suggesting that Matt Williams’ views are perhaps best sprinkled with salt. Or at least that’s our interpretation. Williams doesn’t seem to be the most popular pundit, not helped by, amongst other things, his Colin Montgomerie- like ability to insert ‘I’ and ‘me’ into every answer, even when the question is not remotely related to him.

Moving on, Ireland go to East London on Sunday to face Italy knowing that at last the intensity is going to be ratcheted up. Sergio Parisse’s return is of immeasurable value to Italy as heretofore they have been really poor and only snuck by Canada last weekend. The Italians came into the tournament in poor form and don’t seem to have escaped their funk.

Parisse is of monumental importance however and by simply playing he has an uplifting effect on those around him. Statistics obsessed observers, who are ten a penny nowadays, naturally prefer to rely on measurable data and often balk at the idea that totemic players- McCaw, Parisse and O’ Connell- can improve the performance of those around them by their mere presence on the field. There is room for a lengthy debate on this, but our main point is that Sergio Parisse will be more than a world-class number eight on Sunday. Simply by returning to the fold he brings renewed, infectious vigour to his teammates and forces them to try and raise their level of performance to the lofty standards of their captain.

This, however, will not be enough. Ireland have been quietly efficient thus far and all thirty players who have taken the field in the tournament have acquitted themselves well. Selection headaches have arisen as a result of an excess of quality performers as opposed to the 2007 issue of ‘where have all the good performers gone?’ It appears that Robbie Henshaw, an injury-enforced non-participant thus far, will make his World Cup debut alongside Payne, though Payne’s bruised foot may not heal in time. While the squad possesses an abundance of converted centres it would be preferable at this stage to have the first choice pairing together.

The balancing act at loosehead prop may see the unfortunate Jack McGrath shifted to the bench, but a fit Cian Healy will be extremely difficult to omit. Along with Sean O’ Brien and the surging Iain Henderson the Leinsterman provides a world-class ball carrying option and breaching the gain line is, of course, absolutely crucial. Another fifty-odd minutes for Healy would surely see him primed to go deep when Ireland will need him most against the French.

The back three also offers various conundrums, with all six players staking a valid claim to a starting jersey. Rob Kearney, the incumbent full-back, probably won’t be risked on Sunday meaning the increasingly impressive Simon Zebo will be entrusted with the role of minding the house. While Luke Fitzgerald impressed in the Six Nations finale his chances may be damaged by an appearance at inside-centre against Canada. That, and the fact that Keith Earls is probably playing the best rugby of his life. A confessed self-doubter the Limerick man looks incredibly confident and happy in his skin these days. A neutral observer would think that he is a lock for the number eleven against Italy, and perhaps beyond. If Payne is out, expect Earls to move inside and Fitzgerald to fill the number eleven jersey.

On the other wing, there is a little to choose between David Kearney, whose form of late has been outstanding, and old favourite Tommy Bowe. Bowe’s form had been patchy at best, plummeting to its nadir in Twickenham last month. However, last Sunday he performed like a man with a point to prove, dominant in the kick chase and finishing well twice, particularly for his first score, when he powered straight over the top of his opposite number before grounding the ball in the tightest of spaces. Kearney is also a fantastic competitor in the air and he, more than any other back in the last two months, has showed menace and ambition in virtually every carry. It would be cruel on the Louthman to miss out, but it will prove extremely difficult to omit a rejuvenated Tommy Bowe. Admittedly though Bowe has only found form in the last week so the likelihood is that whoever has gone better in training this week will be selected.

Never has an Irish coach been stuck with so many difficult though welcome selection issues. Credit here of course needs to go to Joe Schmidt and his coaching staff for developing a genuinely deep squad. There seems to be a near perfect balance of competitiveness, ambition and camaraderie. Time for the serious stuff now though. And, with a little bit of luck Joe Schmidt’s opinion will hold a little more sway than Matt Williams when it comes to team selection.

Ireland-v-Italy (possible 23)

1. Cian Healy 2. Rory Best 3. Mike Ross 4. Iain Henderson 5. Paul O’ Connell (c) 6. Peter O’ Mahony 7. Sean O’ Brien 8. Jamie Heaslip 9. Conor Murray 10. Jonathan Sexton 11. Keith Earls/David Kearney/Luke Fitzgerald 12. Robbie Henshaw 13. Jarred Payne/Keith Earls 14. Tommy Bowe 15. Simon Zebo 16. Sean Cronin 17. Jack McGrath 18. Nathan White 19.Donnahca Ryan 20. Chris Henry 21. Eoin Reddan 22. Ian Madigan 23. Luke Fitzgerald/David Kearney

* At the time of writing there is major doubt over Jared Payne’s participation on Sunday. Per The Irish Independent, Keith Earls will be Payne’s likely replacement.

Weekend Picks (selections in caps)

SCOTLAND +14 over South Africa

IRELAND -19 over Italy

For Lancaster, might is right

So, after a tumultuous week, all twenty sides have taken the field. No prizes for the highlight of the opening round of games but the cruel nature of the scheduling –where Japan were forced to play the two favourites in their group within four days- means Eddie Jones’ side were comfortably and none too impressively subdued by Scotland. Vern Cotter’s side has come to the table with little fanfare, largely as a by-product of consecutively awful Six Nations performances but they should not be underestimated. On Wednesday, the Scots, due to the whimsical nature of scheduling and matters out of their control, were treated with the sort of antipathy reserved for one of their near neighbours. True, the Japanese engines eventually stalled –too easy to insert a joke here- but Scotland were still very impressive in dispatching a tricky, confidence-imbued Japanese side.

We’re inclined to think that we dodged a serious bullet by avoiding a full synopsis of what is now the most interesting quintet in the tournament, Group B. Japan, would admittedly, have been given pretty short shrift. Still, with money in our hand we’d have no hesitation in predicting that South Africa and Scotland will escape will escape this group, though the order in which this happens has taken on a mask of uncertainty after Japan’s stunning victory last Saturday.

The elusive Finn Russell will play a big role if Scotland are to go deep in this tournament.

Scotland came into this World Cup with virtually no fanfare surrounding them. And, as somewhat of a quirk, until the IRB rankings are updated next week, they remain the fourth highest ranked side in Group B, behind South Africa, Samoa and Japan. We’ll say now, potentially to our complete embarrassment in a few weeks’ time, that this Scottish side -controlled by the increasingly impressive, Finn Russell, has an excellent chance of making their second ever Rugby World Cup semi-final. Naturally, there are a number of more easily fancied sides to choose from, but we’re inclined to think that the South Africans, rather than being even more dangerous now, are actually ripe for the taking. The ‘Boks enter a balls-out war with Samoa on Saturday and there is likely to be damage from this –actually and not collateral- not to mention the fact that the Samoans could turn over their wounded rivals. Scotland, like Ireland, have been well treated by the fixture list and the benefit of this really can’t be overstated.

Also this weekend, going hand in hand with the South Africa Samoa slobber-knocker, we have the clash of England and Wales in Twickenham on Saturday night. English coach Stuart Lancaster, to the chagrin of many, has made the dull and somewhat depressing decision –we’re talking bigger picture in this regard- of selecting the bread and butter Owen Farrell over the more creative, though admittedly slighter, George Ford for the pivotal clash with their western neighbours. The Welsh, under Warren Gatland, are now famed for ‘Warrenball’ – smash it up in midfield and win every possible physical collision. Lancaster, mindful of this, has chosen a mind-numbingly unimaginative English ten, twelve, thirteen connection of Farrell, Sam ‘the Second Coming’ Burgess and the one trick defensive pony, Brad Barritt.

Out-halves or first five-eighth –depending on where you’re sitting- have always been granted a sort of dispensation for both defensive ability and indeed physique. David Humphreys, Ronan O’ Gara and now, Quade Cooper have all enjoyed enormously successful careers despite clearly lacking the defensive presence of Jonathan Sexton, Jonny Wilkinson or Dan Carter. George Ford, by the grace of genetics, falls into the former group, a nimble twenty-two-year-old who invites plenty of challenging traffic down his channel. When it comes to defence, there is no question that Farrell enjoys clear superiority over Ford.

George Ford, seen here touching down against France in this year’s Six Nations has been dropped by coach Stuart Lancaster for this weekend’s pivotal encounter against France.

However, little more than twelve months ago, Ford was offered the number ten jumper to try and give some impetus to an English attack so plainly lacking in craft or guile. Ford’s arrival has been widely lauded and England’s outrageous victory over France in March, where there backline sparkled, was largely inspired by the innovation of the Bath man in the pivot role. Jamie Joseph, injured this weekend –and perhaps for longer- was probably the greatest beneficiary of Ford’s playing style so in Joseph’s absence, the need for a creative out-half has been, rather perversely, deemed superfluous.

Excepting that Barritt is, as they say in baseball, a defensive whizz only, Ford could still work wonders for the underrated line running of Sam Burgess. The Yorkshireman is lazily regarded by union fans as a battering ram -these the same fans who now fawn over Sonny-Bill Williams- but there is far more to the Yorkshireman’s game than catch  and smash. With Farrell inside, however, there is no chance of witnessing the more subtle aspects of his game.

Stuart Lancaster has proven his continued inconsistency in terms of his selection for this weekend’s centrepiece, with the omission of Ford. Already he has acceded to Warren Gatland, acknowledging that he is going to try go bang with the best in the business. The great shame, of course, is that Lancaster has shown to the world and more importantly his young out-half that when push comes to shove, quite literally, might will always be right.

The bigger issue here was highlighted by New Zealander Ben Smith in a Sunday Times interview last weekend. Smith, who spent a year in Bristol after high school–playing with Old Colstonians- noticed that after training everyone would head straight for the gym ignoring the idea of spending extra time on ball skills. Lancaster’s decision to drop Ford is merely a by-product of this disposition to strength over skill. Good defenders should never be taken lightly but ball-players, genuine game breakers like Ford and Finn Russell, should be cherished.

Now, while we hoped for what would be a week-long preview of the twenty teams’ prospects in the upcoming Rugby World Cup fate has intervened to ensure that the following, dear reader, will be an abridged version of what we first offered. Time is a cruel mistress and devoid of well….time we’ve had to make a few amendments to our earlier plans.

Over the next two days we will bring a preview of Group A –by far and away the most compelling – and, of course the most pivotal Group as far as Irish interest is concerned, Group D. The quickest way from A to D as everybody knows is straight through B and C so we’re taking this approach quite literally. In summary, South Africa top Group B with Scotland joining them –though only just, after a gruelling battle with Samoa- in the quarter-finals. In a shocking departure from conventional wisdom, New Zealand will cruise through Group C with the Argentinians joining them in the last eight.

Throughout the World Cup, we will provide regular ‘state of the tournament’ updates while highlighting some of the more interesting talking points. And of course, given the natural progression of the tournament there will be plenty to come on the reigning champions, New Zealand and the, massively under the radar, South Africans.

Before we go anywhere however let’s just temper home expectations. Of the home nations Ireland are still the only side yet to appear in a World Cup semi-final, so getting that far alone would be a fantastic achievement, even if the obvious endgame is to become the last team standing in west London.

We’ll tackle Group A today, the so-called ‘Group of Death’ –every international tournament is obliged to have one- where hosts England, have been pooled with double champions Australia, co-hosts Wales, the mystifying Fijians and inevitable whipping-boys Uruguay. There has been considerable talk, pre-World Cup, of teams pushing themselves through the absolute limit in terms fitness and one fully believes this. This group promises to be the most attritional and when the dust settles in four weeks, the qualifiers may have too many wounds to lick. Only time, luck and squad depth will tell.

Despite what people might say to the contrary –pressure, undue expectation- home advantage in a major sporting tournament possesses immeasurable advantages; partisan crowds, unintentionally ‘helpful’ referees, familiarity and we believe an inherent pride of place. In seven Rugby World Cups thus far only one side –and a really atrocious Welsh one at that in 1999- has failed to reach at least the last four. New Zealand twice –see ‘helpful referee’ in 2011- and South Africa have been victorious while England and Australia in 1991 and 2003 respectively came agonisingly close to success in front of their home crowds. With that in mind don’t be unduly surprised by what follows below.

England

So, first to England who naturally as both the hosts and, well…. being England will go into the tournament surrounded by extraordinary expectation and equipped with the admirable, though often inexplicable self-confidence, which accompanies English sides. Stuart Lancaster has worked tirelessly over the last four years to win back the hearts and minds of the English rugby community following the debacle of Martin Johnson’s poorly conceived, ill-fated reign. Quite clearly the hosting of the showpiece has been at the centre of Lancaster’s thoughts –despite any laughable protestations about building for 2019- since 2011. Though nowhere close to the relentless juggernaut of Clive Woodward’s 2003 World Cup winning side, the current iteration of the English rugby team will, in our view, go mighty close to winning the tournament.

England’s strength’s –powerful pack, excellent outside threat- have been well documented so it would be remiss to avoid what may well be a glaring weakness at out-half. Now, George Ford, the incumbent ten is an outstandingly talented player, possessed of an extremely rounded skill set and will probably establish himself over the next decade as one of the world’s premier out halves. But -and this is a big but- Ford’s heretofore unconfirmed pre-eminence in the game will mean nothing for the next six weeks. The extraordinary Jonny Wilkinson is the youngest out-half at twenty-four to ever guide his side to victory in a World Cup final –doing so of course in 2003- and even then Wilkinson was five and a half years into his international career. When Ford –or indeed Fijian Ben Volovola- kick off this year’s tournament on Friday night the Englishman will be just twenty-two and with a mere thirteen caps to his name. You might be able to win Premier League titles with kids but for England to win the World Cup on home soil they will need heretofore unprecedentedly mature performances from George Ford.

That said, Ford will shine for much of the tournament, England are a well-drilled unit under Lancaster and their home sod has returned in recent times to a sort of ‘Fortress Twickenham Lite’. If England can negotiate their group –so much the less compelling for the dreadfully unlucky Leigh Halfpenny’s absence- then our gut feeling is that they might ride on a crest of a wave of quickly growing confidence and jingoistic pride –think WWII imagery- all the way to the Halloween final. This side will go close but fall just short of the heroics of the 2003 collective of sporting MBEs, OBEs and knights.

Prediction: Runner-up

One to Watch: Jonathan Joseph. A player with the near-unique ability to make inside or outside breaks. A constant threat in attack.

Australia

Former Leinster coach Michael Cheika was given a pretty interesting job around this time last year. Take an Australian team wildly low on confidence –yes you read that correctly- in complete disarray and transform them into World Cup contenders in just twelve months. From where we’re standing right now it seems like a case of job well done. A relatively successful November tour was followed by a first Rugby Championship since 2011 –also incidentally in its shortened version in a World Cup year- and Cheika now leads a side laced with cohesion, variety and most importantly a re-instilled winning mentality. Australian sport is laced with an equal parts enviable and loathsome complete, unshatterable sense that their merely being Australian makes them superior to their opponent.

Cheika is by all accounts a ‘take no shit’ coach which given their perilous state after last summer is exactly what the Wallabies required. The swagger is back but so too more importantly is the discipline demanded of an Australian side. With a small playing base, Australia has always relied on versatile, dynamic footballers allied with extraordinarily innovative coaching. The combination this year is no different, but Cheika is still faced with a headache as to who to select in the half-backs. Past performance would perhaps suggest the selections of Will Genia and Quade Cooper, but World Cups are rarely won with a conductor like Cooper. Not all the out halves who have won World Cups have been outstanding players, but they’ve all known how to play the right rugby at the right time.

While the number ten jumper may remain an issue for Australia the man at the back won’t. While all the cool kids are mentioning Kiwi Nehe Milner-Skudder as the man to watch during this tournament, our must-see player is the outlandishly talented Israel Folau. While he hasn’t played quite to his own monstrously high standards of late Folau has a skill-set that allows him perform feats –sometimes even on debut– that other players simply cannot even consider.

Australia, as the joint most successful Rugby World Cup performers of all time,- the All Blacks being the other- simply cannot be ignored. But, while Michael Cheika has worked Gordon Bombay-like wonders to rebuild the house in under a year, an appearance in the decider, though not impossible, seems unlikely.

Prediction: Semi-finals.

One to Watch: May have played our hand early here but definitely Israel Folau.

Wales

Every four years the World Cup comes around and with it the evil winds of injury. No team is safe from this nefarious non-entity but in each four-year cycle one side gets punished particularly badly, perhaps for no other reason than the cruel whims of the Fates. Already in a historically difficult group –thanks perhaps to Warren Gatland’s belligerent indifference when the group seedings took place- Wales have seen two starters go down. The loss of scrum-half Rhys Webb has been compounded mercilessly by the news that Leigh Halfpenny, one of the world’s finest full-backs, has been ruled out with an ill-timed and devastating knee injury. We haven’t been to Wales in the last fortnight but one can only imagine a borderline funereal atmosphere –and we do not mean this in a hyperbolic sense- in the country when news of the full-back’s setback was announced. Between his metronomic boot, unfailing solidity at the back and well-timed incisions into the offensive line, Halfpenny could readily be described as Wales’ most important player.

One player –with all due respect to Webb who also misses out on all rugby players’ dream of representing their nation on the global stage- does not a team make but certain players are worth far more to their side than the one-fifteenth fraction they make up on paper. One can only imagine the pervading sense of gloom in Wales but Warren Gatland is as stoic as they come –except when whinging about the predictability of Joe Schmidt’s side- and the Sam Warburton led squad will have accepted by now that the hellish Group A needs to be negotiated without Halfpenny. It would be delightful to see Wales rail against the odds and escape this group and the feeling was that pre-injuries they were on track to do something massive in the next four weeks in particular. All three big guns in this group need their top players available. Wales are now perhaps missing their best. The tournament didn’t end with Halfpenny’s injury and the talent is there but, given that Wales are now missing three of their starting backline –Jonathan Davies was lost in the summer- the hill just turned into a mountain.

Predictions: Group stages.

Player to watch: If he can somehow force his way into an overpopulated back row, the remarkable Justin Tipuric.

Fiji

Fiji drew an unbelievably short straw when they were drawn in this group. Fijians are the most joyous rugby players to watch in full flow, seeing grass where other see bodies and possessed of blinding pace and supreme ball handling skills. As the fourth seed in say, Ireland’s group the Pacific Islanders would have a tremendous opportunity to not only take a scalp –which in any event at this stage is not enough for the Pacific Island Nations- but compete for a quarter-final spot. Only on Friday night though, in Twickenham will we know how serious a part Fiji are going to play in deciding the destiny of this World Cup.

Prediction: Group Stage

Player to Watch: Nemani Nadolo. Yes, he may seem the lazy pick but more than one winger will be made look stupid by the behemoth Canterbury Crusaders flyer.

Uruguay

We have not come here to patronise, but there is no point in trying to talk up the South Americans chances in this their third World Cup appearance. Full unsurprising disclosure: we don’t know a thing about this Uruguayan side but Google can tell you what we can’t. That said they are the big boys of South American rugby after Argentina and if their footballing counterparts are anything to go by, then don’t expect Uruguay to go quietly into the night.

Prediction: Group stage.

Player to watch: Augustin Ormaechea. Because this report said so.

Tournament Odds

England 9/2

Australia 8/1

Wales 25/1

Fiji 1000/1

Uruguay 5000/1