Author Archives: Bill Lonergan

Masters Tournament 2015

Preview: Masters Tournament 2015, Augusta National

The clocks have gone forward. That sweet, nostalgic smell of fresh cut grass is in the air. And there are more than a few red-faced people walking around after the sun showed up for the first time in months. It can only mean one thing. It’s time for the inaugural Straight Up Sport Masters Tournament preview. This won’t be a hole by hole dissection of the beautiful, azalea-laden Georgia course, more a look at the history of the tournament and what makes this week of golf so special. And, of course we’ll have a little dip into the betting markets. As regards the latter, our emphasis will predominantly be on value.

For the uninitiated, The Masters at Augusta National has the unique selling point, unusually for golf, of being held at the same course every single year. The Augusta National Golf Club was founded in 1933 – a year before the first “Augusta National Invitational” Tournament – by Bobby Jones, a legend of the amateur game, and Clifford Roberts, the latter deciding he wanted to use this piece of Deep South grass to set up his very own private, good ol’ boys club. For many, until very recently, the club once stood as a symbol of rich, southern, white entitlement. Indeed Roberts himself once noted, “As long as I’m alive, players will be white and caddies will be black.” In this context, Tiger Woods incredible victory in 1997, obliterating the course and smashing numerous records, on his way to a first Augusta victory for an African-American player was as fine a symbolic middle finger to the old order as one could possibly produce. Eldrick ‘Tiger’ Woods has gone on to provide some phenomenal Augusta moments, none more memorable than the outrageous chip in 2005, when the ball rested on the lip of the sixteenth hole -Nike logo for the world to see- before being engulfed by the cup and sending the crowd and the ‘business time’ red t-shirted, fourteen time major winner into raptures.

Alas, Tiger comes into this week’s tournament shrouded in mystery. He took a well-documented break a number of months back – apparently not injury related- to try and re-discover his form. Has he done so? Absolutely nobody knows, including perhaps himself. In a field where three hundred yard bombers are now the norm, Woods’ distance is no longer an advantage, so, if he is to compete, the thirty-nine year old will need to rediscover his phenomenal short game. This is as good a time as any to make some full disclosure. We would love nothing more than for Tiger to add a fifth Augusta Masters to his collection this week. Frankly however, we will be thoroughly impressed if he can stay within ten of the leader on Friday and give himself the opportunity to stick around for the weekend. The feats of Jack Nicklaus, Arnold Palmer and Gary Player are undeniable on this fantastic course. Still, for those who grew up during the ‘bitter’ Blur and Oasis wars, Tiger Woods is the true icon of the Augusta Masters. But, while our heavy heart says Green Jacket, our head says Tiger may well be watching the weekend’s action on television. And, regardless of what you think of him personally, this would not be a good thing for the game of golf.

Now, let’s get down to business and make our predictions for the first of golf’s four Majors this year. While the U.S. Masters never changes venue, the course itself is always being tweaked, generally with a view to making life as difficult as possible for the big hitters of the 21st century. A few pine trees here and a rolling undulation there mean the course changes year by year. However, the mainstays of the serene surrounds are the ice-rink like greens. There is a perverse pleasure in watching phenomenally talented professionals five putt from thirty feet, particularly if like us, you’re pretty awful at golf. Invariably, the winner of this tournament is able to avoid three putts like the plague. In Augusta, perhaps more than anywhere else in golf, the old adage, “Drive for show, putt for dough”, comes into play. And so to the tournament favourites.

The Favourites

Rory McIlroy (6/1), all conquering world number one, comes into the 2015 Masters on the cusp of reaching some truly rarefied air. At just twenty-five he is already on the brink of winning all four major championships during his career, a feat currently confined to five true greats: Gene Sarazen, Ben Hogan, Gary Player, Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods. From mid-summer last year, the County Down man played otherworldly golf, adding the British Open and U.S. PGA Championship to an already stacked trophy case. Further, he may have unfinished business of sorts with Augusta having seen his hopes go up in flames in 2011 after a disastrous final round 80. At least we found out that year, thanks to an errant McIlroy drive that there are some lovely cabins just fifty yards from the 10th tee. In any event, McIlroy is a different beast now and monumental collapses simply do not befall him any longer. He will win the U.S. Masters some day and maybe chase down the ‘Rorslam’ but we’re not taking this short a price on a man who has never won this tournament before.

Of the pre-tournament favourites we’re more inclined to lean towards the defending champ, Bubba Watson (10/1) and a man who clearly loves this course, Australian, Jason Day (12/1). Watson, also the winner in 2012, has clearly come to understand the course at Augusta National and we’re puzzled as to why he doesn’t head the betting markets. He is a monster hitter and more importantly, in his own words, “one of the best two putters in the world.” Now, admittedly, self-praise is no praise but when you’ve won the tournament twice your words carry that little bit more stock. Further, Watson – owner, on the side, of the goofiest hip-hop career you could ever imagine – dominates Augusta’s par fives, which is an absolute must on a par 72 course.

A moment for Jordan Spieth, if you will. This twenty-one year old Texan, joint- second on his first professional appearance at Augusta last year is, in our view, going to be Rory McIlroy’s greatest nemesis in the years to come. What we say next may sound a little ridiculous however. Spieth has a form line of second, second, first in his last three starts. Still, we feel he doesn’t quite have the clinical ability to close it out in crunch time and while he’s been hot for the last month, we’d question whether perhaps his tank maybe a little empty come the back nine on Sunday. 12/1 on an inexperienced twenty-one year old, admittedly with almost limitless potential, seems far too short for us.

Injury last season robbed Jason Day of a real shot at the Masters, the Queenslander having to settle for a tie for 20th. His second place finishes in 2011 and 2013 are more indicative of his true potential. While only 27, Day’s furiously aggressive swing has led to multiple wrist and elbow injuries, but, once he gets into rhythm he is about as enjoyable to watch as any other player, McIlroy included. Nevertheless, if he wants to stay in the same neighbourhood as McIlroy and Watson over the coming years, not to mention wunderkind, Spieth, Day needs a statement victory. This may well be his time.

Our Picks

It’s no fun sticking rigidly to the top of the betting market. So, we’re going to venture a little further down the market to find what we believe to be some Ole Gunnar Solskjaer style value. We’ve taken a number of things into account this week, amongst others the predicted, moody weather and the players’ ability to avoid three putts. Incidentally, if the expected rain comes then bare in mind that the shorter hitters will really struggle with the length of the course. Putting becomes difficult on changing greens and players need to be able to keep a cool head and manage the course. Grafters – another term for European golfers – don’t mind a bit of wind and rain but our focus this week will actually be on the American contingent.

Honourable mention goes to this year’s P.G.A. money leader, the late blooming Oklahoma born, Jimmy Walker. Walker has enjoyed phenomenal success since the back end of 2013, winning five times, most recently in the Valero Open in his adopted home- state of Texas. Last year, on his Masters debut, he hung tough at the business end of the leaderboard, eventually finishing a highly commendable eighth. At thirty-six, composure is not going to be a problem and following minimal research it seems he manages trying conditions as well as if not better than most. Where is his Achilles heel, you say? Well, despite the outstanding form of Walker, it would be remiss of us to describe 22/1 as a value bet on a man who has yet to win a major, and who has actually taken his place in the field in just six majors to date.

We couldn’t go on without a quick mention of the PGA’s prodigal son, Dustin Johnson. D.J., despite being engaged to one of the most beautiful women in the world – Paulina Gretzky, daughter of ice-hockey legend Wayne – allegedly spent much of the first few years of this decade getting to know some of his colleagues’ wives that little bit too well while also engaging in a little too much of that fantastically catch-all American pastime of ‘partying’. Completely on his own initiative Johnson took a restorative break from competitive golf and, to his credit, the sojourn seems to have done him the world of good. He has already won, at last month’s WGC-Cadillac Championship, and climbed to the lofty heights of seventh in the world rankings. Clearly, when Wayne Gretzky tells you to pull your life together, you listen. Johnson has a great chance this week but 16/1 is far too prohibitive for our liking.

Moving on then, our first pick goes to the affable Floridian, Matt Kuchar, a man who has won plenty of the more difficult, low scoring tournaments; The RBC Heritage, The Memorial Tournament and The Barclays. While he comes to this year’s tournament in less than stellar form, Kuchar has finished no lower than tied 8th in the last three renewals of the Masters. The rain and wind shouldn’t upset the languid ‘Kuuuch’ and at 33/1 we think he’s a great each-way shout.

We’ll be the first to admit that our next pick is a bit of a wildcard, the unpredictable – our favourite euphemism for hotheaded- Keegan Bradley. Bradley, still only twenty-eight, has serious credentials, having won the U.S. PGA Championship in 2011, on his first appearance in a major tournament. Bradley is certainly not a bottler – winning a major aged twenty-four confirms as much – but we feel even at this young age he should have a few more tournament wins under his belt. He’s amongst the very best drivers of a ball on the PGA Tour and when he gets in the zone, as in the 2012 Ryder Cup, his putting can be absolutely red hot. Added to this is the fact that he finished his preparation for the Masters with a tied fifth in Houston last week. A good performance the week before the Masters certainly doesn’t assure success. Nonetheless Bradley’s performance at the Golf Club of Houston will hopefully have done his somewhat erratic confidence levels the world of good. His propensity to boil over aside, Bradley unfortunately may meet his Augusta kryptonite in his tendency to three putt greens. Still, if his iron play is as good as we know it can be then three putting hopefully won’t come into the equation too often. We’re sticking with the courage of our contradictions here, so, while we advise you to approach Bradley with caution, we feel 80/1 is just too alluring to resist.

The last player worth having a look at is Masters debutant, Brooks Koepka. He cut his teeth on the European Tour so clearly has plenty of mental strength. Further, he’s already picked up his maiden victory on this season’s PGA Tour at The Waste Management Phoenix Open. And, this guy hits the ball an absolute mile. True his lack of experience goes against him and victory maybe a bridge too far but if he starts dominating the par 5s then a top-ten finish is absolutely within his reach.

Regardless of what you’ve read in the last few days, the winner could come from any one of roughly forty of this week’s field. McIlroy is favoured for what people believe he can do on this course. Bubba Watson meanwhile has actually done it but retaining this championship has proven extremely difficult in the past. Therefore, we’re going to opt for the aggressive Jason Day, incidentally a man with a remarkable back story, to realise his potential and land his first Green Jacket on Sunday evening. And, even if it means being a little bleary eyed on Monday morning, be sure to stick the final round out. It rarely fails to thrill.

Augusta Masters 2015 – Picks

  • Jason Day – e/w @ 14/1
  • Matt Kuchar – e/w @33/1
  • Keegan Bradley e/w @ 80/1
  • Brooks Koepka – Top 10 @6/1
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Ultimate Fighting Championship

McGregor: The Tide May Be Turning

From the moment he entered the public consciousness, Conor McGregor was destined to divide opinion. For quite some time, the brash, remarkably gifted MMA (mixed martial arts) star has tread a tightrope between the outrageous and the plain unlikable. McGregor will fight Brazilian Jose Aldo for the latter’s UFC featherweight title on 11th July in Las Vegas, a fight that will garner massive global attention. The Dubliner has enjoyed a meteoric rise to number one contender as a result of a thirteen fight unbeaten streak and a mouth which has adorned him to the American public. Until now, that is.

McGregor has chosen recently to engage in a series of downright offensive tirades against his opponent and there is the real danger that he is about to cross the line from outspoken, cheeky antihero to loathsome, pantomime villain. Many argue that this approach is all just about gaining the psychological edge and that everything McGregor says is carefully calculated to knock his opponent off balance mentally. This claim may have some traction and there is certainly something to be said for emanating unbreachable confidence when the job at hand is to beat your opponent senseless or force him to submit. The next, more tiresome point you will hear is that anyone who knocks the challenger is simply fulfilling the stereotype of the begrudging Irish. We are not buying that argument for a second.

Firstly, Ireland has produced some truly outstanding sportsmen and women who have managed somehow to find the time to keep themselves grounded. Padraig Harrington, Sonia O’ Sullivan and Brian O’ Driscoll spring to mind immediately. Rory McIlroy is set to go down as one the all-time greats in golf. Extremely self-confident? Yes. Brash and arrogant? Absolutely not. To prove the point further, look to boxing – which like MMA requires bullet-proof confidence – where this island is lucky enough to possess three extraordinarily gifted and humble world champions in Andy Lee, Carl Frampton and Katie Taylor. If these three can not only exist but thrive in the world of boxing then how, might any of the apologists out there explain why McGregor needs to adopt this ‘antagonistic for the sake of it’ persona when he steps into press conferences. Or why he felt the need to scale the octagon, WWE style, and stare down Aldo after his latest victory over Denis Siver. This particular situation was made only more laughable by the fact that Aldo happened, no doubt by complete chance, to be sitting in close proximity to McGregor’s girlfriend in the crowd. To add to the ridiculousness, check out McGregor stealing Aldo’s belt this week. This is a WWF/WWE move as old as the hills.

Assuredly, Dana White, the President of the UFC, is the puppet master behind much of McGregor’s media relations. Not so much in pre-empting what ‘The Notorious’ actually says, but more through his willingness to cultivate an environment where the Irishman can get away with spouting out monumental levels of manure. Initially, the US audience loved McGregor and his devil may care attitude. Indeed, by all accounts they still do. However, and this is where he may wish to show caution, Americans like their heroes to win, but they like them to win with class. McGregor in constant ‘don’t give a shit’ mode is about to alienate the most important commercial audience in the world. Now, we’re not saying for a second that we want to hear him disingenuously ‘give it up to God’, NFL style, but he needs to show restraint to improve his recently deteriorating perception amongst the general public.

McGregor has been treading a fine line since the moment he came to prominence in the UFC and, by extension, the US. He has chosen to be arrogant to the point of being irritating. Offensive to the point of being hateful. Even boxing’s greatest pound for pound fighter, Floyd ‘Money’ Mayweather waited until he had beaten all and sundry before he descended into a hole of deplorable, self-infatuation. Dana White and McGregor’s coach, John Kavanagh know that they are on to something special. In addition both want to see him dominate first the UFC Featherweight (145 pound) and then Lightweight (155 pound) divisions for years to come. In all reality, however, both men want McGregor to succeed for very different reasons. Kavanagh must get great personal satisfaction in seeing thousands of hours of collective dedication come to fruition. No doubt he genuinely cares for the star of his Straight Blast Gym. White, however, must be thanking his lucky stars that he has landed upon a phenomenally talented athlete who doubles as an indefatigable mouthpiece. White and the UFC are all in on McGregor, fully aware that the sport has taken a massive dive in popularity in recent years.

Conor McGregor has chosen a path from which there can be no divergence, no backward steps. He’s put himself on a pedestal, his endlessly self-serving behaviour meaning if he slips the fall will be steep. When he first came to fame we were among the many who thought he was a charismatic, slightly eccentric breath of fresh air. He carried himself with that little bit more arrogance than the usual fighter, but you couldn’t help but be impressed by his bulletproof bravado and pleasantly unusual presentation. Now, he has crossed into a murkier territory, a place where even his greatest flag wavers will have difficulty defending him. Incidentally, the behaviour of his followers at the press conference this week in Dublin wasn’t exactly a glowing endorsement of the nation but, then again, not every English football hooligan is symbolic of the English nation.

Conor McGregor has incredible hand and foot speed, a nearly unmatchable range of flexibility, almost superhuman levels of fitness and, an unquestionably quick wit. Yet he resorts to crass, tasteless insults which go far beyond the level of achieving psychological superiority. Right now, or at least very soon, the entire nation should be getting behind the man attempting to become the first U.F.C. champion from this country. Yet, something is amiss. McGregor may be in danger of alienating those who wish to be inspired by their sports stars, not ashamed or disappointed.

Many people who make it to the top behave despicably but you don’t have to behave despicably to make it the top. Conor McGregor has the physical ability and glowing charisma to capture a nation’s hearts in the coming months. This is a country that gets behind its sporting heroes like no other. Yet, unless there is an imminent sea-change in his demeanour, many of McGregor’s countrymen and woman will be left cheering him on almost out of duty, while quietly hoping for the day ‘The Notorious’ finally gets his comeuppance.

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Euro 2016 Qualifiers

Now Is Your Time

As former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson once said, “A week is a long time in politics.” So too in sport. With a double Six Nations victory barely in the bag, we quickly turn our attention to a massive weekend for the Republic of Ireland soccer team. Martin O’ Neill’s men entertain Poland on Sunday night in what, despite what the Irish management might say, is a must-win game. Or, in the alternative, look at it like this. If Sunday’s game ends in a draw then the likelihood is that the Republic will need to pick up three points either at home to World Champions Germany or away to Sunday’s opponents in the group’s finale on the 11th October next. Incidentally, those games take place just three days apart so best bank the points now.

The general feeling is that the superb draw in Gelsenkirchen in October was more or less negated by the comprehensive defeat the following month in Glasgow, by a very impressive and reinvigorated Scottish side. Either way it’s quite clear at this moment in time that Ireland is the fourth best side, both in standings and quality of performance to date, in Group D and there is quite simply no room for error if qualification is to be obtained. And how dearly we would love to be there.

Whether you are a soccer fan or not you cannot deny that the country takes on an amazing, giddy atmosphere whenever the national side qualifies for a major tournament. Most people wouldn’t be able to tell you what they did last Monday night but for anyone over the age of thirty we’re pretty sure you can recall where you were when Ray Houghton lobbed Gianluca Pagliuca and roly-poly heaven ensued; The Duiske Inn, Graignamanagh, incidentally. Or when Robbie Keane smashed the equaliser, deep into injury time into the roof of Oliver Kahn’s net. In those moments, the entire length and breadth of the nation shook in absolute ecstasy. Similarly, when Kevin Sheedy equalised against Italy in Italia 90. We weren’t sure what was going on that night but what can only be described as a primal roar from our father made us realise something special had happened. Incidentally, if we had a time machine our first stop would be….. not Ancient Rome or 60s San Francisco… but the south of Italy for those two almost mythical sounding weeks, almost twenty-five years ago. Our vague memory of the time was that the country was almost uncontrollably excited, off on an adventure we had yet to be invited on.

Roll on a couple of decades and the picture isn’t quite so rosy. Jack Charlton managed, what will most likely go down, as the most talented collective of players this country will ever see. Players from Liverpool, Arsenal and Aston Villa – believe us they were once a serious side- adorned the team during, arguably, Irish soccer’s golden age. Various factors have seen a decline in the national side, not least British clubs willingness to look to Africa and Eastern Europe in lieu of an abundance of talent on these shores. Still Martin O’ Neill, unlike us, is no sentimentalist. He knows who is available and won’t bemoan the dearth of current Irish players plying their trade in the Barclays Premiership. At least not publicly.

The Irish Independent’s Dion Fanning alluded to the fact that we need that first truly magic moment at the Aviva Stadium under O’ Neill and he is right. Someone needs to step up and emulate Jason McAteer’s match-winning strike over the Dutch in 2001 when it genuinely felt as if the stadium was about to launch off into the heavens. The new ground, while fantastic to look at, possesses none of the raucousness of old. Still with big performances and, namely, victories come more vocal support. That’s the way of the world. The Irish rugby team may appear to have undying loyalty these days but cast your mind back to the hammering the team suffered in November 2013 to Australia, Joe Schmidt’s second official game in charge. You could have shouted your order to your friend in the opposite stand without much difficulty.

The Irish national team enjoy remarkably loyal support. The Aviva is not El Bernabeu or Yankee Stadium, the homes of the ‘what have you done for me lately’ types. On Sunday though Martin O’ Neill’s side must give the local support something to really shout about. Poland is a very impressive side, showing as much in their excellent victory over Germany last October. And, while they will be very well supported by their burgeoning Irish based community, we must remember that it is the Republic of Ireland who is defending its castle on Sunday night. On a decisive night in March 2015, McCarthy, McGeady or Coleman can create their very own ‘McAteer’ moment to lay their claim to the hearts and imaginations of the Irish public. As much as we hate to say it, failure on Sunday will most likely send this qualifying campaign into the realm of obscurity.

This country is on the crest of a ‘fifty-year storm’ sized wave at the moment. In the words of the late, great Tupac Shakur, it’s time to “Ride or die…..”

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NFL/Rugby

Now for Something a Little More Serious

Chris Borland, 24-year-old, second-year inside linebacker for the San Francisco 49ers will never step foot on a football field again. However rather than the usual heartbreaking tale of a young man or woman being forced to quit due to a debilitating injury, Borland has stepped away from a game he was sure to light up for years to come in the fullness of his health. He’s announced his early retirement for the very practical reason of ensuring his future health.

NFL Commissioner, Roger Goodell, who if you’re familiar with you most likely can’t stand, has been rather careful how he broaches any questions regarding Borland’s truly unprecedented manner of retirement. His line is, in effect, ‘players retire all the time, I am absolutely fantastic because I have put player safety on the agenda more than any commissioner before me and Chris Borland is his own man.’ (Entirely our words not his) Goodell has had a rough year, generally attributable to his teak- tough arrogance, and he knows the N.F.L. need to appear to care about their players right now. In light of the premature, tragic deaths of, amongst others, Junior Seau, Terry Long and Dave Duerson, a realisation has surfaced, passively buried by the NFL for years, that the head trauma received during playing careers is actually taking lives.

You may have heard of chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) a degenerative disease which, at least for the moment, can only be definitively identified posthumously. Repeated concussions and severe head trauma are the main causes of this viciously progressive disease. The disease has been studied at length, particularly by neurologists in the United States and the studies have rightly become a topic of public as well as medical debate. Borland’s decision appears, very much from the outside looking in, to have elicited a really positive response from the American public. No one is glad to see him go but everyone can see the rationale behind his decision.

As we said, he’s twenty-four, has been diagnosed ‘just’ twice with concussion – he says another concussion may have gone unnoticed- but has decided in his own words to be “proactive” and to “live a long, healthy life”. Further as Borland noted, “…to be the type I want to be in football, I think I’d have to take on some risks that as a person I don’t want to take on.” Anyone who watched Borland in his rookie season will know that he was fearless to a fault and absolutely torpedoed himself into tackles. His playing style was going to involve some thunderous impact to the head, in what would probably have been a decade long career.

Here is a young man set to make multi-millions, who truly believes that your health is your wealth. The question is however, whether Borland’s decision will actually cause current or prospective NFL players to quit the game. The always excellent Bill Barnwell of Grantland best addressed this question last week by basically stating that Borland’s decision has, in effect, evaporated just one drop from a massive ocean of players. Unless the players decide en masse that they too, like Borland, do not want to run the risk of ending their days, far too early in a state of anger and depression, the show will simply go on minus one very brave, young man.

Of course, right now, closer to home, debate is rife as to the danger rugby players are putting themselves in by exposing themselves to repeated head trauma. New concussion protocols have been brought in and though some players disagree with them, the new rules have specifically been brought in to protect their health, both now and in the future. Logic would suggest that rugby players get concussed about as often as NFL players so the jarring reality is that CTE is going to be discovered very soon in deceased former players.

The issue right now though is to look at men like Chris Borland and, say, Leigh Halfpenny – who suffered a severe concussion after getting his tackling technique all wrong last Saturday- and wonder who has made the right decision. Borland has given up enough money to ensure financial security for him and his loved ones for the rest of his life, in order to secure his health. Halfpenny and any number of sportspeople who have been concussed in recent weeks will rest up, shake away the cobwebs and go back to playing the games they love more than anything.

In all honesty, neither man’s decision is incorrect. You can’t deny someone the opportunity to play nor berate them for doing so, nor indeed can you criticise a man or woman for putting their mental and physical wellbeing first. As fans we want the best players out there and, let’s be honest, when a monster hit goes in the player, his team and, of course, the crowd are energised. At the same the monstrous hits are the cause of the serious head injuries. For clarity’s sake, don’t for one second think we are preaching. When rugby league’s State of Origin series comes around in June – our favourite annual sporting event outside of the All-Ireland Hurling Final- we’ll be engrossed not only by the quality of the rugby but also by the devastating intensity of the hits that so define these games.

So, we are left in a bit of a quandary. Despite the widespread acclaim for the former San Francisco 49er’s very much isolated decision, one suspects we would be quietly livid if the vast majority of rugby and NFL players retired mid-career, even if it was to protect their health. One wonders if the majority of sportspeople are simply thinking, ‘that guy’s just thrown away the opportunity of a lifetime’, when perhaps he has just grasped one. No one is right and no one is wrong, as such. Nevertheless sporting authorities the world over are sitting up to take notice of the potentially devastating effects of head injuries, so Borland’s decision can only be a good thing. The show will always go on but for now, for the better, it has been forced to really consider the lifeblood of the game, the players.

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Six Nations 2015

The Grandest of Finales

Did That Really Just Happen?!

Who knew an entire nation or perhaps entire nations, could be brought on a seven-hour rollercoaster ride filled with every single emotion on the spectrum – watching rugby! Baseball’s World Series has the fabled ‘Shot heard ‘round the world’ when Bobby Thompson connected for a game-winning home run for the New York Giants over the Brooklyn Dodgers on October 3rd 1951. Well, over sixty years later Six Nations rugby now has its very own landmark moment, the ‘What the f**k are you doing, heard ‘round the world’ when Yoann Huget, clearly a man who loves a bit of drama, pushed our hearts to the very top of our mouths with a quick tap penalty on his own line with the game up for England. In Huget’s defence, we have moaned here incessantly about our longing for the France of old. Well on Saturday we got it, right up to the last second of a Twickenham encounter that will surely go down as one of the greatest games in rugby history, particularly when circumstances are taken into account.

On Friday we bemoaned the fact that the staggered kick off times left an uneven playing field for the players. How now do we argue with the greatest afternoon’s rugby that many of us will ever see in our lifetime? I’m not sure if we can. Is the format unfair? Yes. Was that the most thrilling, stomach churning, nerve inducing sporting experience a spectator could ask for? Absolutely! Perhaps the only way the format should be tweaked, as has been suggested by many people this weekend, is to ensure the order of play on the final day of the tournament is rotated each year. Therefore Wales and Italy would avoid playing the first game on the final day next season and so on. It wouldn’t be a perfect system but, in any event, we get the feeling there won’t be a major overhaul of the format. Not after that!

Wales got the thumping victory we anticipated but not quite in the manner we imagined. For the second week in a row the Welsh scrum was destroyed early on except this time the referee applied the rules differently and the dominant side was rewarded. The home side only trailed by a point at half-time and it seemed Wales’ mountain would be too far to climb. The visitors, though, came out a different beast in the second half, running in tries from every neighbourhood. Still, we noted before the weekend that all-out attack could open a door for Italy, a potentially fatal one for Wales, and so it was that Leanardo Sarto managed somehow to keep his legs inside the field of play and touch down for the game’s last try. Luciano Orquera then landed a tricky conversion to give Ireland and England hope. And as Brendan Rodgers once said, probably with a straight face, “….you can live without water for many days, but you can’t live for a second without hope.” Right on, Brendan!

So to Murrayfield, where millions of Irish hearts must have felt that twenty-three points were doable, but the head, no matter how hard it tried, just couldn’t agree. We know what happened. Up-tempo from the first second, Ireland came in waves, Tommy Bowe’s searing break a sign of things to come. Paul O’ Connell, almost enjoying folk-hero levels of popularity these days touched down for Ireland’s first try but, of course, there was drama to follow; a sloppy Scottish try, snatched place kicks from Jonny Sexton and Ian Madigan and a game-changing tackle by the incredibly alert Jamie Heaslip to prevent a seemingly certain try for Stuart Hogg. The Irish players couldn’t help but be thoroughly satisfied with their efforts, but they knew that they wouldn’t be reaching their destination without a few more bumps along the road.

All eyes then to south-west London and who in their right mind could foresee what was coming. England’s task seemed nigh on impossible. A twenty-seven point victory was needed over a French side who hadn’t even conceded that many points in a single game in this year’s tournament. Never mind, as for the first time in years Les Bleus decided to play ball the Gallic way. Once the set-pieces were over then what of the restrictive numbers on their backs. Vincent Debaty, the twenty stone veteran prop racing on to an offload from the breathless Noa Nakataici coupled with Nakataici’s own insouciance in touching down for his early try made us realise how much we missed the carefree, slightly insane thrills that the French can bring to the game.

To England’s credit it was they who put together the single most entertaining and exhilarating eighty minutes of the tournament. Ben Youngs’ brilliantly worked try within two minutes was a fabulous score but little did we know that almost two hours later we’d have seen eleven more tries, breathless end- to- end play from both sides and a firm message to the Southern Hemisphere that rugby is alive and kicking up here. Even in a World Cup year the 2015 Six Nations has left an indelible mark on our memories.

Before we completely lose the run of ourselves though, let’s remember that these final games were taking place in a bubble, a series of catch me if you can challenges laid down by three teams who had come to play. Wales caught fire almost from nowhere, Ireland were adventurously cautious for the whole game while England thrilled but made some absolutely unforgivable mistakes. Thus, it is perhaps fitting that the winner of the ultimate spoils showed the greatest composure when it counted most.

Either way, we should all remember that this past Saturday we experienced the most perfect storm imaginable. This is perhaps where we get too carried away with sport but where else will you get such honest endeavor, selfless dedication and outpouring of emotion. For seven hours on Saturday nothing else mattered. Sure, there are politics in sport, but there are none on the pitch. We saw an unscriptable drama, thriller and tragedy (for England) all rolled into one. Remember where you were when Nigel Owens blew the fulltime whistle at 6:57 p.m. on Saturday 21st March 2015. We may have been cursing Yoann Huget but maybe he knew he was putting the finishing touches on a day of rugby theatre that we will not see for quite some time.

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Six Nations 2015

Six Nations Round 5 Preview – Are You Not Entertained?

Before we go any further we’re going to take the not highly recommended path of raining on the parade before we’ve even started. Saturday afternoon’s final round of staggered fixtures is completely unfair on the teams playing earlier, most obviously Wales. As a rule of thumb, we use the simultaneously devious and incompetent Sepp Blatter, head of FIFA, to discern levels of sporting administrative competence. Put simply, if Blatter allowed the final round of World Cup group fixtures begin at different times there would be outrage. Tomorrow afternoon’s rugby will be heaven for the neutral but for the players, the ones who matter most, this set up needs to be altered. There have been rumblings about the schedule, from the Welsh camp in particular, and rightly so. The powers that be have been warned. One year of this is acceptable, but a change should be brought about next year. Nonetheless, after rugby enjoys a heretofore unseen stranglehold over the British and Irish television markets between 12:30 and 7:00 p.m. tomorrow, greed not for the first time may win out over fairness.

Back to more immediate matters. The staggering of the climax of the tournament means each game will be significantly affected by the preceding result. Wales need to be as gung-ho as possible against an Italian side who may well be the accommodating hosts their visitors require. Ireland are up next probably needing to surpass Wales and ensure they set England a tricky target. England will then know exactly what they need to do. All of this prefaced by the fact that Wales, Ireland and England all win as expected. First to Edinburgh where the eyes’ of this nation and Irish men and women the world over will be fixed.

Scotland –v- Ireland – 21st March, 2:30 p.m. – Murrayfield

Last week’s hugely disappointing and thoroughly dissected defeat in Cardiff means Ireland’s hopes of going back-to-back have been severely dented. Ireland are the meat in ‘race to the title’ sandwich. Wales will play before them, meaning Ireland will know exactly what they need to do to catch their conquerors of last week but not England.

Anyone who’s been following us during the tournament will know that we feel Scotland have underperformed and are better than their record suggests. We could claim Scotland have been unlucky but what we really mean is that they have failed to execute after putting themselves in some promising positions. A sloppy pass against France when a draw was a reality and a failure to break the Welsh line when deep in the visitors’ territory, though we didn’t know then what we know now about the incredible Welsh goal line defence. This was followed by an eighty minute abomination against a let’s be frank, awful Italian team. Their game against England last Saturday was probably an accurate reflection of what their current capabilities are. They were always in this game, helped admittedly by some sloppy English play and some last gasp defensive heroics, but that is what they would have expected. They opened England up brilliantly for Mark Bennett’s try but are clearly still a work in progress.

The Scottish side previous generations grew up watching possessed some absolute masters of back row play. John Jeffrey, David Leslie and Finlay Calder made life absolute hell for their opposite numbers and some probably still mentally scarred out halves. Such was their incredible ability to dominate in the ruck that it appeared at times they were being afforded an immunity, ordinarily reserved for foreign diplomats, to do absolutely as they pleased on the ground. They will have been nodding their heads in approval at the masterclass provided by the Welsh back row in Cardiff last weekend. The trio tackled every target, moving or otherwise and made life incredibly difficult for Conor Murray and latterly Eoin Reddan. The less illustrious trio of David Denton, Blair Cowan and the recalled Adam Ashe will need to bring their game to as yet unseen levels as they will be facing an angry, pumped up Irish unit in Peter O’ Mahony, Sean O’ Brien and Jamie Heaslip.

Meanwhile, the Irish trio needs to be far more effective in Edinburgh, on both sides of the ball. Scotland will want to get their lively, young backline into play early so quick ball is naturally a must. O’ Mahony will be primed to make the flow of the ball available to Greg Laidlaw as interrupted and messy as is humanly possible. O’ Brien and Heaslip made an incredible thirty-seven combined carries last weekend, yet never once did they make sufficient inroads to cause panic in the Welsh defence. Scotland, considerably less experienced and without any great continuity of coaching, will be that little bit looser in defence, so it would be hugely frustrating if Ireland’s half backs can’t create genuine attacking opportunities for O’ Brien, Robbie Henshaw, Tommy Bowe and the recalled Luke Fitzgerald. Further, Ireland could even add an element of surprise if a receiver running a hard line lays the ball off before reaching the gain-line. In any event, try something a bit intuitive. Johnny Sexton and Conor Murray need to step it up massively from last week and keep the Scots constantly guessing and forced onto the back foot. So much more easily said than done though.

While it’s absolutely fantastic to see Fitzgerald back in a green jersey we feel that Simon Zebo, who Fitzgerald replaces, has copped far too much criticism from last weekend. We’re far from being Zebo apologists but given the plethora of mistakes all over the field last weekend it’s bizarre that a left winger who was never worked into any good positions was the target of such ire. We find it most odd that the Cork man is left out of the matchday twenty-three altogether. Tomorrow’s game takes place in slightly different circumstances where the to-date successful system, needs to be adapted a little. After sixty minutes, Ireland are going to have to loosen the shackles and go for an all-out offensive assault. Zebo, not Jones, would surely be the man to bring on in this situation.

Rory Best, who was well off the mark last week, has been retained because firstly a performance such as last weekend’s is a rarity for him and he’s an absolute monster in the dirty wars in tight. Sean Cronin is a fine player and brilliant impact substitute but let’s be fair, his darts aren’t exactly on a par with Phil Taylor either. Iain Henderson may too feel peeved but Devin Toner’s line out skills cannot be underestimated against a very strong Scottish unit led by Jonny Gray and the man you’d want, every single time, to have your back in a barroom brawl, Jim Hamilton.

Stuart Hogg and his Michael Jackson feet can cause Ireland untold trouble but the reality is that if we go for it, opportunities will be that little bit more plentiful for Scotland. The likelihood is Ireland will need to win by ten or twelve points to either catch Wales or put England under pressure later on, yet a win in Murrayfield would be an achievement in itself, so the task at hand becomes ever more difficult.

We still maintain that Ireland must go for it late on and even if they don’t retain their Six Nations crown, Joe Schmidt will know whether his men can play expansive, borderline cavalier ball when the situation demands it.

Ireland by 8 (Ireland -8 generally) i.e Stay away!

 

Italy -v- Wales – 21st March, 12:30 p.m. – Stadio Olimpico

This one has massacre written all over it. Italy are, with all due respect, a very poor team and without totemic leader Sergio Parisse today, they are in our view, sitting ducks. The more we look at it, the more the victory against Scotland looks like an outlier. Their visitors, who no one would have put in the Championship hunt after their round one humbling by England, will be buoyed by last week’s defiant victory over Ireland when they were able to repel wave after wave of enemies at the gate.

The Italians are ferociously proud and stubborn, particularly at home but Ireland in 2007 (51) and England last year (52) were able to put up serious scores, when required. The Welsh are more than capable of matching this. Confidence is surging through the team once more and if Dan Lydiate, Sam Warburton and Taulupe Faletau had to put in backbreaking defensive work last week, their biggest problem tomorrow will be keeping up in support, after their surging backs break the Azzurri line, time after time.

Wales’ biggest fear is conceding scores from turnovers or breakaways, a fate that befell Ireland and England before, but they have to take risks. They no doubt feel slighted by the fact that replica Six Nations trophies are on the way to Murrayfiled and Twickenham but not Rome. After a woman, hell hath no fury like a Celtic nation scorned. The public, meanwhile, are giving due notice to Wales as the handicap has moved from 22 to 25 points in less than 24 hours.

Wales should demolish their hosts tomorrow and most likely put themselves in the driving seat for the Championship. Expect George North and co. to run amok and the lively Scott Williams and debutant Gareth Davies to feast on the scraps from the bench. How sweet for Warren Gatland and his team if they can overcome what seemed insurmountable odds only a week ago.

Wales by 35+ (Wales generally -25) 

 

England –v- France – 21st March, 5:00 p.m. – Twickenham

In chaos theory, the butterfly effect states that one small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state. Translate. Each kick, pass or drop of a ball in Rome and Edinburgh could have a far reaching effect on what England will need to do come tomorrow evening.

It’s frankly impossible to determine at this point what England will need to do against France. Hell, even Stuart Lancaster has delayed his team talk until he knows the outcome of the two earlier games, However we’re going to operate off the following premise, less Stephen Hawking, more Nostradamus: Wales win by thirty five points, while Ireland win by eight. This leaves Wales on +47 and Ireland on +41, meaning England, currently +37 need to win by eleven points to surpass Wales and win the championship. Further, the bookmakers generally have England as ten point favourites so that seems to be the ballpark figure for the required winning margin. Still with us? Excellent!

The always confident Twickenham crowd will no doubt expect a disinterested French side to roll over and let their heroes romp to a first title since 2011, just in time for the World Cup. We, however, do not see it that way. England for all their dominance last week, struggled to pull away and only secured victory with five minutes to go. This is not the team of old, chocked full of the reassuring composure and bloody-mindedness of Martin Johnson and Johnny Wilkinson. The current side while developing nicely are still relatively callow and have yet to be in a position, their fate in their own hands, to seal victory in Europe’s premier tournament.

As we alluded to already, France rather perversely, rarely give up big scores due to the completely uninspiring brand of rugby they play these days. Indeed, along with Ireland, they have conceded the least points (46) in the tournament this year. Coach, Phillipe Saint- Andre, for all his flaws, has crafted an aggressive, watertight line that rarely concede line breaks. Most of England’s tries have arrived from outside breaks from Luther Burrell, Jamie Joseph and Anthony Watson. Tomorrow, the situation demands that England come out well on top in an expected arm wrestle, something they could not achieve in Dublin.

France have Jules Plisson in for the injured Camile Lopez at out half while Mathieu Bastareaud sits on a large chunk of the bench, a place from where we anticipate he may well cause some late damage to the home side’s aspirations of Six Nations success.

This weekend’s games form part of a sort of gauntlet series, where Wales will go out and lay down a marker which their rivals will then set about matching and surpassing. Nonetheless, inside or outside this bubble, we believe that France, while no world beaters are being shown too much disrespect. One imagines they would enjoy nothing more than kicking over the cake and stealing all the drinks from the anticipated party at Twickenham tomorrow night. Saint-Andre noted, “We are going there with a positive pressure on us.” He’s right, they are. England, however, are facing an unknown pressure and a task, while certainly not insurmountable, far tougher than people are anticipating.

Don’t be surprised if when darkness falls tomorrow the perceived puppet masters have lost control of their own destiny.

England by 6 (England -10 generally)

 

Final Prediction: Wales to win the Six Nations Championship on point difference. 

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Round 4 Review

Six Nations Round 4 – As the Dust Settles

Before last Saturday we saw Ireland as very real contenders for the upcoming World Cup. One defeat later, our long term outlook remains the same but as Joe Schmidt might say if he ran for any number of uninspiring political parties, ‘A lot done, more to do.’

We weren’t alone in predicting an Irish victory in Cardiff. While obviously expecting a massively physical, committed Welsh team, we did not expect our hosts to provide a record breaking defensive performance. Even after owning the ball for the first fifteen minutes, Wales went on to put in 250 tackles, their line only being breached as a result of a penalty try. A further oddity was that the Welsh always looked far more threatening with ball in hand. Their try came from quick ball and what appeared to be a defensive misread between Jamie Heaslip and Tommy Bowe.

We wondered before Saturday how Ireland would respond to going two scores behind. Well after twenty minutes the visitors found themselves 12-0 in arrears with the Welsh tails up and the Millennium Stadium absolutely buzzing. The inevitable response came from Ireland though this was more through sustained periods of possession rather than any real sense of threat. Paul O’ Connell, absolutely immense on his 100th cap, made Ireland’s two best line breaks. Without any intended slight to the great man, that is hardly a ringing endorsement of the still latent creativity in the Irish backline. We hadn’t been behind for what seemed like aeons but the combination of home pressure and away indiscipline meant Leigh Halfpenny was more than willing to lay it on thick before the first quarter had even elapsed.

Finally having gotten a foothold in the game, Ireland decided to lay a marker, with Jonathan Davies in the sin bin, by eschewing a kick at goal and setting up an attacking line out in the red zone. Rory Best and the Irish lineout, not for the last time, completely fluffed their lines, with Wales subsequently winning an incredibly welcome relieving penalty. As the fabulous stadium shook, one couldn’t help but think of Devin Toner’s crucial steal for Ireland at a similar time in the game against the English. Games are not won or lost on these individual moments but some of these moments have an undeniably greater impact on the game’s outcome than others. Or, to paraphrase Animal Farm’s Napoleon, ‘All moments are equal but some moments are more equal than others’. On a day like Saturday when, late on in particular, the Welsh must have felt like they were being hit by boulders, these crucial momentum swings must really have boosted their confidence and allowed them go to the well one more time.

Before we advance too much further we would like to highlight the fact that our pre- match thoughts on this game were perhaps a little wide of the mark. Vastly superior lineout? Hmmm…. Astute kicking game? Not exactly. Considerably stronger than the Welsh halfbacks? Definitely not on the day. We can’t remember a game in the last four years when Conor Murray and particularly Johnny Sexton misfired this badly. Sexton happened upon a bad day, an inevitability unfortunately, for anyone who chooses to step outside their front door every morning. Perhaps a combination of not being fully fit and relentless Welsh pressure contributed to a really off day for the Dubliner. We feel that given the team’s plight at the time it would have made sense to pull Sexton ashore after 55 or 60 minutes and give Ian Madigan a chance to inject some life into the game. As with his predecessor, Ronan O’ Gara, Sexton is only taken off if injured or the game is comfortably in the bag. This is the gift and curse of having an outstanding out half. You want him out there as often as possible but what happens if things go awry? Ian Madigan is a game breaker, perhaps not a game manager, but at eleven behind with ten to go you have got to roll the dice. Sure you might hit snake eyes but what if hard eight comes up?

In basketball they talk about role players and scorers off the bench. The latter in particular comes in when their side needs a rapid burst of offense. We seem to have this option in Madigan from the bench and anyone who has watched him for Leinster will testify that he is lethal at stepping and fending -off energy sapped defenders. Sam Warburton, the heroic Welsh captain said the thirty two phase, ‘last stand of Cardiff’ was about as tired as he’s ever been. Surely Madigan would have thrived here, given some time, to go around exhausted defenders rather than straight through them. We’re in danger of going to the big show in the Autumn with only one, admittedly exceptional, tried and trusted out half.

Further, Ireland were guilty of, and there’s no other word for it, butchering a walk-in try on the right wing with Jared Payne and Tommy Bowe waving madly to those inside to let the ball come wide. Certainly the stadium was a cauldron of noise but the eyes are there for catching what the ears don’t see. Cian Healy, manically involved, may have gotten in the way but the best teams, which Ireland clearly aspire to be, rarely misfire in these situations. New Zealand, the absolute standard bearer, virtually never do.

Incidentally, Wales have out- thought Ireland on two separate occasions four years apart, under two different coaches in two different tournaments. Declan Kidney was widely criticised for failing to anticipate Wales frantic chop tackle assault in the 2011 World Cup. Four years later and after a brilliant, Irish ten game unbeaten run, a phenomenal Welsh rearguard action and back row masterclass have given Joe Schmidt and his staff plenty of food for thought. Still for all our misfiring, a Helms Deep standard defence and an at times comical refereeing performance Ireland fell by a converted try to an already quality side, particularly geed up for this game by Warren Gatland and Shaun Edwards.

Ireland go to Scotland needing points, tries and a bit of reckless abandon. Schmidt has almost always stayed ahead of the curve in his tenure as Ireland coach. Last week he got out coached and his team got outplayed. Assuredly he will have the Scots well sussed out but there is no point in Ireland going to what will be a raucous Murrayfield and sneaking home on a slew of penalty kicks. There is talent abound in this Ireland side. It’s time to light the blue touch paper.

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Six Nations 2015

Six Nations: Round 4 Preview – Moving Day

a Six Nations Round 4 Preview – Moving Day

WALES –v- IRELAND – Saturday 14th March, 2:30 p.m. – Millennium Stadium

So here we are. Moving day, to borrow from golfing parlance. The pivotal round of this year’s Six Nations, where the wheat and the chaff go their separate ways. All eyes will be on the Millennium Stadium at 2:30 this afternoon as two of the three remaining title contenders, Wales and Ireland, lock horns in what promises to be an absolute belter. The home side will look to prove that they do indeed belong in the same conversation as Ireland and England, particularly after their comprehensive defeat to the latter in the tournament’s opening round. Ireland, for their part, are seeking back- to -back titles in the northern hemisphere’s premier competition for the first time since 1949.

Immediately, our thoughts turn to the two head coaches, Warren Gatland and Joe Schmidt, both of whom may be casting a long term eye towards their dream job back home in New Zealand. Gatland, the Six Nations current longest serving coach, having been appointed in 2007, has enjoyed fantastic success with Wales, winning three championships and two Grand Slams. Despite this success there is a suspicion that his game plan has gone stale of late. The fifty one year old has achieved great success through an incredibly physical, direct game plan, admittedly executed by some excellent players but right now his side seem to be missing a bit of guile.

Schmidt on the other hand is at the beginning of his international coaching odyssey. His side have drawn first praise and then the inevitable criticism for being one-dimensional. As Gatland can attest, there’s nothing wrong with one-dimensional when it works and again it should be noted that the Hamilton born man has led the Welsh to two Grand Slams and a World Cup semi-final during his tenure.

Schmidt, to the untrained eye, seems to play them as he sees them, insofar as he adapts the game plan to suit his team’s upcoming opponent. In advance of tomorrow’s encounter Schmidt will have noted, along with everyone else that Wales just love to send Jamie Roberts, Jonathan Davies and Toby Faletau at the opposition midfield as early and as often as possible. Ireland’s back row, welcoming back the tireless Jamie Heaslip, and their centre pairing are happiest when taking down direct traffic. It’s clear at this stage that trying to breach the Irish wall by bludgeoning your way up the middle is about as sensible as telling Joe Pesci to go shine your shoes.

This may sound a bit obvious but the key to scoring is having the ball deep in enemy territory. Ireland generally achieve this through a couple of carries to create space for their half backs followed by incredibly well placed box kicks or booming up and unders. Through this style of play, they re-gather the ball or force turnovers, better than any other side in the world. It’s not pretty but unless you’re a neutral, who cares. Better to win ugly like Mourinho than lose beautifully like Wenger. Admittedly, Ireland have not been forced to show their expansive side because, to the best of our knowledge, they’re yet to fall two scores behind. If this happens, and they can’t dig themselves out, then the cries for a lack of perceived creativity may have a little more substance. But until we see this it’s like asking if Australians would be better than us at Gaelic Football if they played the game – We don’t know!

As has been the case recently, Ireland’s game will be predicated on Jonathan Sexton and Conor Murray’s accuracy with the boot and a disciplined chase by Tommy Bowe and Simon Zebo. Bowe’s aerial skills have long been lauded but it was in this facet of the game that Zebo really came to the fore against England, save for one over-exuberant chase. George North poses an obvious threat going forward but as with most men his size he can’t exactly turn like a ballerina. Also Sexton will most likely kick the corners more often knowing that Ireland’s line out definitely has the advantage over their Welsh counterparts.

Wales’ route one approach has as we noted before been bolstered by the addition of Liam Williams on the wing and the sharp, predatory Rhys Webb at scrum half. Wales obviously need to knock on the front door a few times but once there’s no answer, they should think about sneaking in around the side, utilising Williams and Webb. Roberts, Davies, Henshaw and Payne are going to be one big midfield demolition derby so the likelihood is that the magic, or just a clean line break, is going to come from a well- timed run from the respective back threes, or a little snipe from Webb. As has been pointed to us by a colleague of ours, this Irish team don’t tend to switch off all that much so the Webb threat should be somewhat neutralised.

If you run through both sides it’s hard to find an area where the Welsh are superior. Centres and back three perhaps, but only after an argument in relation to the latter.The back rows are on a par but in our eyes Ireland hold the upper hand in all other areas. So, then you look to the respective coaches. Boston’s Ken Casey, an old favourite of this column, once said, “Though it starts with a fist it must end with the mind.” In our view Gatland can’t help but endure with the fist. Schmidt’s sides are nothing if not physical but it’s in his more cerebral, methodical approach that he takes the advantage into tomorrow. Ireland are a better side, made even better than the sum of their parts by the excellent Schmidt. Ireland should go to Murrayfield next week with their Grand Slam hopes intact.

Ireland by 4 (Ireland -1 generally)

ENGLAND –v- SCOTLAND – Saturday 14th March – Twickenham

The home side will be smarting after being both outfought and out thought by the Irish a fortnight ago. They welcome back Courtney Lawes and Mike Brown, in place of George Kruis and Alex Goode. After the number Ireland did on his pack two weeks ago, Stuart Lancaster realises that his second row depth, Kruis, isn’t quite what he thought, and the bench spot goes to Geoff Parling. Meanwhile Brown, in our opinion, is the best full back in the northern hemisphere and obviously his return bolsters the English side. Having been humbled, and even with green tinted glasses on they were, they’ll look to get their title hopes back on track in front of an expectant home crowd. From the outset this all suggests a comfortable home win with a beleaguered Scottish side coming to town. However we don’t see this one being quite as straightforward.

Scotland, for whom perhaps we have had too much of a soft spot, are really not as bad as their basement dwelling, winless position suggests. They took the game to France in Paris and were with them right until the end. Against Wales, a game we thought they’d win, they kept shooting themselves in the foot at the most inopportune moments. We can’t really make any excuses for the Italian defeat though. Senseless errors, often by their out halves, and an inability to strike when the iron’s hot in the other sides twenty two means they go to Twickenham with pressure coming at them from all angles.

Vern Cotter has made five changes to his side but the bigger question is whether he has succeeded in a short space of time in instilling some mental strength and plain old cop-on into his decision makers, namely Finn Russell and Peter Horne. We discussed the relative strengths of Cotter and Joe Schmidt recently with a friend of the column and they made the interesting point that Cotter seems too willing to invest his faith in talented but flaky playmakers, Finn Russell for Scotland and more obviously Brock James at Clermont Auvergne. While we agree that he gave James too many chances at Clermont the same can’t be said of the younger Russell or Horne, both of whom have performed fantastically well for Gregor Townsend’s Glasgow. We expect Russell, on his return from suspension, to step his game up tomorrow.

Like Lawes for England, Scotland have recalled their enforcer the battle hardened Jim Hamilton. Also added is big ball carrier Dave Denton so, on the face of it Scotland have decided they need a bit of ballast after being humiliated up front by the Italians. Still, we think England’s pack is considerably stronger, particularly on their home turf. Their backline didn’t get much of a look in the last day, thanks mainly to the suffocating game plan carried out to perfection by the Irish. Tomorrow England will enjoy more joy up front and with great ball comes great opportunities. While we certainly don’t expect the floodgates to open after sixty minutes, we just don’t see the Scots having the firepower or the leadership to pick up their first Twickenham victory since 1983.

Scotland are obviously coming south of the Wall looking for more than a performance but a good showing here is necessary before they worry about taking on the world. England, meanwhile need to get the show back on the road and, regardless of the earlier result in Cardiff, put themselves in good shape for the finale against France. Both sides are hurt but while Scotland would cherish victory, Engand quite simply need it more. And, to put it bluntly, they are the better side.

England by 12 (England -16 generally)

 

ITALY –v- FRANCE – Sunday 15th March 3:00 pm – Stadio Olimpico

Two teams on one victory apiece but who come into Sunday’s game with very different dispositions. Italy were by all known measures the write off of this year’s Six Nations Championship. Still, they arrived in Murrayfield and bullied the Scottish, culminating in a last gasp penalty try and a very welcome victory. France on the other hand were man handled on their own patch, going down to a well organised, aggressive Welsh side, meaning France are Championship also rans after three rounds.

The home side welcome back Andrea Masi while their field general Sergio Parisse wins an Italian record 112th cap. The emotion on the Azzurri’s faces after their victory two weeks ago was fantastic to see and one feels that with a win under their belt they can go home to an adoring public and have a real cut at the tournament’s most spineless side. France will be reeling from their latest defeat, which in truth was as comfortable a seven point victory as you’re likely to see. Tomorrow, coming fresh off the centre carousel, we have Maxime Mermoz and Gael Fickou. The twenty year old Fickou showed flashes of his brilliance with his matching try against England in Paris last year but it’s anyone guess whether he gets to shine. We’ve found it very difficult to read the French under the turgid stewardship of Phillippe Saint Andre. The one shining light is their defence. They’ve conceded just two tries thus far, so while about as exciting to watch as an Eastenders omnibus they won’t give away all that much.

With the World Cup looming the last thing Ireland or indeed group rivals Italy want is for Saint Andre to be replaced after the Six Nations. The prevailing view, as pointed out by Gerry Thornley in The Irish Times earlier this week, is that a French victory on Sunday and a solid showing in Twickenham next week will keep Saint Andre entrenched in the role, much to the displeasure of the French public. We give Italy every chance here but think, and selfishly hope, that the French will sneak this one.

France by 4 (France -7 generally)

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Cheltenham Festival 2015

AP Gets His Just Deserts

There were more highly touted horses and certainly more popular bets. But no single win will be as popular on a purely personal level than A.P. McCoy’s thoroughly impressive pillar to post victory on Uxizandre in the Ryanair Chase. There weren’t many talking up Alan King’s horse beforehand unless they were mumbling to themselves out of everyone’s earshot, including the bookmakers. Sent off at 16/1 McCoy sent his mount out confidently and bar a late push from Barry Geraghty on board the well backed Ma Filleule, Uxizandre held on comfortably for a five-length victory. There really isn’t much more to be said about the Antrim man before he retires, but we’ll all try for the next few months anyway. Uxizandre’s trainer Alan King put it simply and accurately, “We’ll not see AP’s like again, the winners, the dedication – I’m just delighted to have played a small part in it.” And, that’s just it. Whatever about the man or woman on the street, it’s the regard A.P. McCoy is held in by his peers that testifies to how much of a true great he is.

In yesterday’s feature, the World Hurdle, Cole Harden, in a feature of the earlier races on the card took to the front early and never relinquished his position. Gavin Sheehan stayed composed on the Wayne Greatrex outsider to take the honours from the very well backed Paul Nicholls duo of Saphir de Rheu and Zarkandar. Irish hopes never really materialised as Lieutenant Colonel and Jetson failed to come into it.

Early on, the last of the Mullins ‘guns’ was on show in the JLT Novices Chase and how he impressed. Vautour, who had question marks over him after an awful day in Kempton in December, put the field to the sword in the most spectacular manner possible. If this was a boxing match the ref would have stopped it once horse and pilot, Ruby Walsh landed safely over the last. Frankly there were times during the race where it looked like Vautour would clear a castle turret let alone a Cheltenham fence.

We’ve all been astounded by the quality on show from the Mullins’ team this week. Unless someone discovers a new planet; preferably near Carlow; in the next twelve months, where National Hunt racing is hugely popular then Willie Mullins has a problem. A fantastic problem but a problem, nonetheless. Where does he find space for all these ludicrously talented horses? Douvan, Un de Sceaux, Faugheen, Don Poli and Vautour today all showed incredibly well this week. And, given Annie Power’s dominance prior to coming unstuck on Tuesday you can be sure she’ll have something to say at the Festival in the coming years. Speaking of which, after Tuesday’s drama, perhaps some kind soul will set up an Annie Power hotline or counselling group to help people get over the ‘horror’ of losing an accumulator. Poor girl is after crushing so many dreams and she doesn’t even know it!

If you listened to us yesterday then unfortunately things didn’t go so well. Vautour provided our favourite performance of the festival in securing the JLT Nocies Chase but none of the rest of our selections even came close. Such is life. Onwards and upwards. In any event, if you’ve stuck with us since Tuesday then you’re still well up for the week, after a successful first two days. We’ll get you back on track today, hopefully.

Friday 13th March 2015 – Feature Race – Cheltenham Gold Cup

This is it folks. The one we’ve certainly been waiting for. As intriguing a Gold Cup as you could wish to hope for in our opinion, even without the superstar draw of the likes of Denman and Kauto Star. We could go on for longer than a piece of string but suffice to say it’s a nightmare of a race to call. Ten of the eighteen strong field have won Grade Ones and two previous winners feature in Bob’s Worth (2013) and last year’s victor, in controversial circumstances, Lord Windermere. Davy Russell’s mount seemed to infringe on On His Own’s path to the line but the stewards, even after confirming as much, still awarded the victory to the Jim Cullotty trained 20/1 shot. If you have ten minutes, watch the race and subsequent enquiry on YouTube. It’s incredible drama, about as good as we saw in any sporting event last year

Lord Windermere returns after a typically underwhelming year as a 16/1 shot to regain his crown. That sounds crazy but in three races in Ireland since the start of the season he’s done nothing to suggest a repeat of last year. Cullotty, three time winner of the Gold Cup aboard the legendary Best Mate, is a very astute trainer however and his charge is yet to be beaten in Cheltenham in two attempts. His yard, as at this time last year, is out of form but you can be assured his star has been aimed for a monster tilt at glory tomorrow, where we imagine he’ll do nine-tenths of his running from the rear of the field.

After the champ, we have the favourite, Silviniaco Conti. Despite winning the King George at Kempton on St Stephen’s Day very handsomely, we have our reservations. Firstly, the two horses he led home that day, Dynaste and Al Ferof, both of whom unfortunately missed the festival, are not true three mile horses, a prerequisite for Gold Cup contenders. Further to this Paul Nicholls horse has had some trials and tribulations in the Cheltenham centrepiece, falling in 2013 and failing to capitalise last year in a race that was there for the taking. That’s not to say he hasn’t improved but at 4/1 there’s better value out there.

Holywell is a past winner at the festival and a really honest horse, Willie Mullins’ Djakadam hugely popular after his impressive recent victory in Gowran and Carlingford Lough, ‘emotional bet alert’, with A.P. McCoy will merit plenty of attention. Bobs Worth as well will be a popular selection on a day where it appears the Prestbury Park turf has softened up a little. Meanwhile, Many Clouds has garnered considerable respect in Britain for many of the same reasons as the first of our selections, Road to Riches.

The Noel Meade trained, Gigginstown owned, Road to Riches has, for quite some time, been on many peoples’ radars. An extremely progressive horse he has followed up a fine victory in the Galway Plate last August with equally impressive wins in Down Royal and more recently in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown in December. A horse like this does not bide his time for the festival or wait in the long grass. He’s developed nicely and proven that he goes on pretty much any type of ground. He comes of course with the caveat of being unproven up the treacherous hill, but we’ve seen a few lay that concern to rest already this week.

The other one we like is the Mark Bradstock trained Coneygree. He destroyed an admittedly weak field in Kempton at Christmas but it was his all the way victory in the Denman Chase, in February that really made us sit up and take notice. Though expected to go in the RSA before this superb performance, trainer and owner ensured he kept his entry in the blue riband event. Was he avoiding Don Poli? Perhaps. Does he have a chance this afternoon? Absolutely. In any event the two will no doubt get to settle the argument somewhere down the line. Like Road to Riches, Coneygree faces by far and away the toughest challenge of his chasing career to date. Nonetheless, today we trust in youth to get the job done.

Obviously it’s all about the Gold Cup today but we like Quick Jack, less value now than at the start of the week in the County Hurdle as an each way prospect. And, in the following race, the Albert Bartletts Novices we’ll be having a little twist on Martello Tower who we still like on the form lines.

The last race in the festival has been named, for one year only, after A.P. McCoy who suits up on board Ned Buntline. Unsurprisingly there’s been a big move for the great man’s mount in his last ever Festival ride. Ruby Walsh, as uncompromising and cold as his great rival has a great chance aboard Blood Cotil. Neither man will give an inch but we like Blood Cotil, a great each way prospect at 8/1 in a very unpredictable race, it must be said.

Remember that the ground has softened slightly if you’re betting today. More importantly, do not miss the great spectacle this mid -afternoon. Ensure you’ve an important appointment to attend. We know we do. The curtain has almost come down on another fantastic week’s racing. We hope you’ve enjoyed it as much as we have.

Friday Picks

2:05 – County Handicap Hurdle – Quick Jack e/w @ 13/2

2:40 – Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle – Martello Tower e/w @ 10/1

3:20 – Cheltenham Gold Cup

  1. Road to Riches
  2. Coneygree
  3. Holywell

5:15 – AP McCoy Handicap Chase – Blood Cotil e/w @ 8/1

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- Day3, Cheltenham Festival 2015

Home Fires Stoked

After the high drama of Tuesday, proceedings somewhat came back to normal on day two of the Cheltenham Festival. The feature race, The Queen Mother Champion Chase was won by the impressive Dodging Bullets, who stayed very well up the gut-bursting Cheltenham hill, to hold off festival veteran Somersby. Paul Nicholls scored both before and after the feature and the British took somewhat of a stranglehold on proceedings after Ireland and one particular south eastern yard enjoyed a phenomenal opening day.

Unfortunately Willie Mullins’ Champagne Fever was precluded from participating after an unfortunate incident, possibly a bite from a stablemate, forced the grey out. Special Tiara took to the front early as expected, seeking to stretch the field and see if the champs of the last two year’s Sire de Grugy and Sprinter Sacre had any of the old juice left in the tank. Sam Twiston Davies ensured the winner was always in touch but when he looked to make his move on the way to the last it looked as though Somersby, so often the festival bridesmaid, so to speak, would catch his seven year old rival. Instead, Dodging Bullets, dug deep and held on for a relatively unfussy victory, leading home his game old rival and the gutsy Special Tiara. The bookies will have licked their lips at the number of emotional, ‘maybe he has one last big one in him’, bets placed on our old hero Sprinter Sacre. Truth is, 2013’s superstar never looked all that comfortable and Barry Geraghty, the man who knows him better than anyone, thought it wise to pull him up before facing into the steep rise to the finish post. Sprinter Sacre has brought the house down in Cheltenham before and he assuredly owes nothing to anyone. The reigning champion Sire de Grugy seemed to have heavy legs, an eventuality predicted by many, in racing so soon before the event. Dodging Bullets has shown sustained improvement throughout the season and this victory is a fitting outcome for an underrated horse, one from whom we expect plenty more to come.

Davy Russell extended the incredible start for Ireland aboard Dermot Weld’s Windsor Park in the opener. Weld, of course is a renowned flat trainer, but he’s not too shabby at the jumps game. As winning jockey Russell noted of the Curragh man, “Dermot told me that jumping was his hobby. What a hobby.” Brian Cooper followed up on board Don Poli in the RSA Chase to send the bookmakers running for cover once more, still no doubt reeling from Tuesday’s shellacking.

It wasn’t the best of days for Nina Carberry, who was shaping nicely on Quantative Easing in the Cross Country Chase when taken out, Super Mario Kart style, by French favourite Toutancarmont, crashing through the rails and obviously ending her interest in the race. Unfortunately a photographer, Patrick McCann suffered a broken ankle but thankfully nothing worse.

Anyone who returned and paid heed to our advice yesterday had winners in Don Poli,  Dodging Bullets and Bumper winner Moon Racer who managed to weave his way through all sorts of difficulty, to come home to a huge Cheltenham roar, under Tom Scudamore.

Thursday 12th March 2015 – Feature Race – World Hurdle

The weakest day’s racing in our humble opinion or perhaps better put the least prestigious of the four feature races, the 3 mile stayers, World Hurdle. Don’t get us wrong there have been some legendary stamina hurdlers; most obviously Big Bucks and Inglis Drever in recent years but the chase events over a similar distance will always steal the limelight. Identifying the winner of year’s renewal will prove extremely tricky particularly with last year’s winner, More of That, missing the Festival due to injury. The favourite Zarkandar is available at 11/2 and that reflects the relative uncertainty of the market. Un Temps Pour Tout is one we heard good things about but were left unmoved by his seasonal reappearance, finishing two and 3/4 lengths, though it felt further, behind Saphir de Rheu. Saphir de Rheu is jostling for market supremacy with the aforementioned Zarkandar and will be prominent although a theme could very shortly follow, whereby we give virtually every horse a chance. A victory for Lieutenant Colonel trained by Sandra Hughes, daughter of the incredibly fondly remembered Dessie would be particularly welcome in the Irish racing community. He beat Jetson by three-quarters of a length at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival and the two won’t be far apart. Still history shows that the British have a decent grip on this race and we like Un Temps Pout Tout to come on for his Christmas run but only if the ground remains a little on the soft side.  Whisper, last year’s Coral Cup winner poses the greatest home threat though and Lieutenant Colonel will need a monumental effort to secure what would be an emotionally charged victory. Horses and horse racing have no room for sentiment. Tomorrow, for a day, that may change.

The highlight for us tomorrow is actually the Ryanair Chase, run over two miles and five furlongs, and sees Gordon Elliott’s, Don Cossack head the market. There are so many quality horses on display here; course and distance winner John’s Spirit, Nicky Henderson’s Ma Filleule who’ll suit the rolling hills of Cheltenham and Balder Success, a classy horse who just can’t seem to stay the distance at this racecourse. Our preference, however, is for Shark Hanlon’s Hidden Cyclone, second in this race last year. A horse whose form seemed to wobble a bit after last year’s appearance here, he was very impressive in winning the Tied Cottage Chase in Punchestown last month. The Shark is a larger than life character and we’re happy to say we’d be delighted if he took home this prestigious grade one tomorrow. We could ponder this one for quite some time but for us it’s Hidden Cyclone leading home Don Cossack and Ma Filleule.

Elsewhere we like Vautour (2/1) in the opening JLT Novices Chase but be warned six different people might pick six different winners in this one. Valseur Lido, Ptit Zgig and Apache Stronghold will be prominent but we like last year’s Supreme Novices winner to prove his disastrous December trip to Kempton was but a blip.

Edeymi is the pick for the Pertemps Final Handicap. Just a quick refresher, a handicap race in horse racing is a race in which horses carry different weights, allocated by the handicapper. A better horse will carry a heavier weight, to give him or her a disadvantage when racing against slower horses. Incidentally, The Aintree Grand National, the world’s most famous race is a handicap. Tony Martin gives the handicappers sleepless nights and then some nightmares and he looks to have got this one just right. There’s a big market move for Edeymi but be warned, handicaps are rarely as easy to decipher as they appear.

Thursday’s Picks

 1:30 – JLT Novices Chase – Vautour @ 2/1

 2:05 – Pertemps Final – Edeymi e/w @ 8/1

2:40 – Ryanair Chase – Hidden Cyclone e/w @ 8/1

 3:20 – World Hurdle

  1. Lieutenant Colonel 
  1. Whisper
  1. Un Temps Pour Tout
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